I did this already in the CFL thread when you started spouting off words like "hype" and "hyperbole". But here it is again (note that this was written last Saturday night):
Here are numbers from Johns Hopkins’ website, which along with the WHO is a reputable site for accurate reporting (according to medical professionals and health experts who are on the front lines of dealing with this - full disclosure, I am married to one of those health professionals in this Province). Remember a couple of weeks back when Trump said they had 5 cases in the USA and would be at zero by April? Well four days ago they had 9,000 cases and 130 deaths. Three days ago it was 12,000 and 155 or so deaths. Two days ago it jumped to 14,250 and 205 deaths. Yesterday it was 19,000 and 260. As of now it is 25,500 cases and 307 deaths. That progression is the problem. Numbers are artificially low as well since there isn’t full testing yet. So cases are climbing at a rate of around 33% daily now and deaths are jumping at a rate of around 25%. Italy was at 3,000 deaths two days ago and are now at 4,800. That’s a 60% jump in two days. They had 41,000 cases yesterday and 58,000 today. So first of all, spare me the “flu has many more deaths than this in a year” BS. We are basically two weeks into the exponential growth stage. Extrapolate over a year without the “hype and overreaction” of locking down cities and guess where we end up? At a 30% progression rate, in one week from today the US has gone from 25,500 cases to 166,000. Fortunately the US death rate is about 1.3% of all cases, not the global rate of around 3.5-4 %, or Italy’s 8.5%, so we are talking “only” 2,150 dead next week, so yeah a 700% increase in one week. Canada is doing slightly better per capita, but the growth is similar. Or we can all quarantine and hope to slow those numbers.
The video was posted on March 4, as has been pointed out. Of course the numbers were much lower then. What he was saying wasn't wrong on that day, but he was not factoring in the growth of the virus in his answer. Trump was saying in that week that they had 15 cases, soon to be zero, which seems to be the line of thinking you are following. We can see just how completely wrong he was saying that looking at where we are at today. My point was that the progression, left unchecked by ignoring social distancing recommendations, was going to overwhelm the system. You call it hyperbole to predict this massive influx of cases. Well, let's look at where the numbers have gone since last Saturday night. From Saturday night until last night, we have seen:
Cases jump daily from 25,500 to 36,000 to 52,000 to 69,000 as of Wednesday night (all numbers from Johns Hopkins website if you want the source)
Deaths jump from 307 to 424 to 700 to 932 as of Wednesday night.
So my prediction of a daily 30% increase has held up. These are raw numbers. Not conjecture. Not hyperbole. And this despite people already taking some social distancing measures. The effects of it to flatten the curve won't be seen for a few weeks since the cases are already in the system and you can be symptom-free for a couple of days and have it and spread it. Trump wants to open up the US again in 2 weeks. That will negate any effect to socially distance, and the numbers will keep rising.
If the numbers start to taper off from the 30% daily rate, my guess is that it won't solely be due to the virus slowing down but rather that the testing won't keep up. So if we fall short of the 166,000 cases reported by this coming Saturday night, I'd be more confident saying that it is because they just didn't do testing for every person who actually has it rather than the virus is dying off.
As a comparison, here is the progression in Canada since March 12 up to yesterday:
Are you starting to get the picture now?