Canadian Politics

[bigg jay]

1 hour ago, Mark H. said:

That is a tight race in what is supposed to be a safe right wing riding.  

Yep, that should be a huge warning sign for Stefanson.  Unless they change things in a hurry, they are in big trouble in the next election.

[GCn20]

14 minutes ago, bigg jay said:

Yep, that should be a huge warning sign for Stefanson.  Unless they change things in a hurry, they are in big trouble in the next election.

I'm not sure they have enough time to turn things around, nor a leader that can take over an election campaign.

[bigg jay]

2 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

I'm not sure they have enough time to turn things around, nor a leader that can take over an election campaign.

I agree, the next election might be a foregone conclusion but (as the NDP found out after Doer left) the effects from poor leadership can be felt well after one election cycle.  The PC's are very much headed down this path at the moment - no easy answers for them as to who could turn things around though.

[bustamente]

PC's know they are going to get wiped out in Winnipeg and this byelection confirmed it, no way it should of been remotely this close. The person leading the party should not be in politics and others wanting a kick at the can don't look much better

[Wideleft]

Desperate times call for desperate measures and I'm looking forward to imminent infighting that will damage the PC party before the next election even happens.  Think Selinger vs. Swan etc and how that set the NDP back for 2 election cycles.

[GCn20]

The only hope the PCs have for the next election is if the NDP shoot themselves in the foot somehow, or if the Liberals really pick up steam in the city of Winnipeg. I can see the former happening but not the latter. There is a lot of discomfort with Wab Kinew amongst swing voters as well but Heather would have to run a perfect campaign and gain a lot of points between now and the next election.

31 minutes ago, Wideleft said:

Desperate times call for desperate measures and I'm looking forward to imminent infighting that will damage the PC party before the next election even happens.  Think Selinger vs. Swan etc and how that set the NDP back for 2 election cycles.

You won't see that kind of infighting. Might have happened if Pallister stuck around but it won't happen before the next election. 

[JCon]

24 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

The only hope the PCs have for the next election is if the NDP shoot themselves in the foot somehow, or if the Liberals really pick up steam in the city of Winnipeg. I can see the former happening but not the latter. There is a lot of discomfort with Wab Kinew amongst swing voters as well but Heather would have to run a perfect campaign and gain a lot of points between now and the next election.

You won't see that kind of infighting. Might have happened if Pallister stuck around but it won't happen before the next election. 

Wab has become much more palatable to swing voters ever since they lived (barely) through PC rule. Both Brian and Heather are toxic. 

The PCs could get it together if they bothered to get appropriate staff and leaders in place. They're organization has been falling apart. This is an issue we've seen at the provincial level before. Selinger couldn't keep the right staff in place after the split. When Harper left, there was a vacuum and no one was capable of stepping up. I expect a similar fallout when Trudeau leaves. 

[GCn20]

12 minutes ago, JCon said:

Wab has become much more palatable to swing voters ever since they lived (barely) through PC rule. Both Brian and Heather are toxic. 

The PCs could get it together if they bothered to get appropriate staff and leaders in place. They're organization has been falling apart. This is an issue we've seen at the provincial level before. Selinger couldn't keep the right staff in place after the split. When Harper left, there was a vacuum and no one was capable of stepping up. I expect a similar fallout when Trudeau leaves. 

Wab is still disliked by a lot of people who are unhappy about the current government and voted for them before. If this comes down to a referendum on Wab then the NDP may lose steam. I suspect they know this though and will run a campaign where he is not as outfront as many leaders are during a campaign. If they hide the Wab factor people will vote NDP again, if they don't many will plug their nose shut and vote PC again if the PCs can rally back to simply not shooting themselves in the foot continually. Wab isn't even particularly popular amongst us native voters, and we really would love to see a native premier....just not Wab.

Edited March 23, 2022 by GCn20

[Wideleft]

8 minutes ago, JCon said:

Wab has become much more palatable to swing voters ever since they lived (barely) through PC rule. Both Brian and Heather are toxic. 

The PCs could get it together if they bothered to get appropriate staff and leaders in place. They're organization has been falling apart. This is an issue we've seen at the provincial level before. Selinger couldn't keep the right staff in place after the split. When Harper left, there was a vacuum and no one was capable of stepping up. I expect a similar fallout when Trudeau leaves. 

Anything can happen, I suppose, but I think there are 2 main reasons this is less likely to happen:

• The Trudeau cabinet is chock-full of capable women who are more interested in governing than in personal power.  The only person interested in playing games (Wilson-Reybould) was dealt with long ago.
• Like him or hate him, Trudeau doesn't run his party like an authoritarian.  Pallister and Selinger made major decisions without consulting with cabinet and that generated major friction.

[JCon]

Just now, Wideleft said:

Anything can happen, I suppose, but I think there are 2 main reasons this is less likely to happen:

• The Trudeau cabinet is chock-full of capable women who are more interested in governing than in personal power.  The only person interested in playing games (Wilson-Reybould) was dealt with long ago.
• Like him or hate him, Trudeau doesn't run his party like an authoritarian.  Pallister and Selinger made major decisions without consulting with cabinet and that generated major friction.

I think you're incorrect. The power has been concentrated in the PMO. Copied Harper. 

That is not to say that there are not capable politicians in caucus that can't take over and be effective but the team around them will be depleted. As important as the leader is, the team around them gets the job done. That won't be easy. 

Also, Trudeau does run the PMO the same as Harper did. Everything runs through that office, which is why JWR and JP were run out. 

[Tracker]

3 hours ago, rebusrankin said:

Disappointed Obbywon. Still that is really tight for a historically safe PC riding.

Is this a Star Wars reference?

[Super Duper Negatron]

Wouldn't have voted for him, but good for Obby. Made this community his home, built up some successful business ventures and got elected as a Muslim to the Conservative party in Manitoba.

[GCn20]

2 hours ago, JCon said:

I think you're incorrect. The power has been concentrated in the PMO. Copied Harper. 

That is not to say that there are not capable politicians in caucus that can't take over and be effective but the team around them will be depleted. As important as the leader is, the team around them gets the job done. That won't be easy. 

Also, Trudeau does run the PMO the same as Harper did. Everything runs through that office, which is why JWR and JP were run out. 

I agree. Everything goes through the PMs office in Liberal cabinet. I don't know how that could even be disputed. I would think most parties operate in this manner to some extent. The message has to be controlled. When a leader is ousted it is messy business. Very few leadership transitions go smoothly if the leader has overstayed his welcome. Trudeau is rapidly approaching that point.

[Fatty Liver]

2 hours ago, JCon said:

I think you're incorrect. The power has been concentrated in the PMO. Copied Harper. 

That is not to say that there are not capable politicians in caucus that can't take over and be effective but the team around them will be depleted. As important as the leader is, the team around them gets the job done. That won't be easy. 

Also, Trudeau does run the PMO the same as Harper did. Everything runs through that office, which is why JWR and JP were run out. 

I'm fairly confident Chrystia Freeland will step in as the next PM once Trudeau decides he's had enough.

 

[Fatty Liver]

16 hours ago, Noeller said:

They truly believe they are the majority and the only reason they're not winning elections is shenanigans.... Cheating.... It wss rigged.... We actually won but conspiracies..... Etc. 

Sounds like the "Freedom Convoy" supporters, trying to convince them they don't represent the majority is futile.

[JCon]

14 minutes ago, Fatty Liver said:

I'm fairly confident Chrystia Freeland will step in as the next PM once Trudeau decides he's had enough.

 

I would say that she's an early frontrunner but it will be a battle. Also, her being capable does not mean that she will have the necessary people around her. 

[HardCoreBlue]

9 minutes ago, Fatty Liver said:

Sounds like the "Freedom Convoy" supporters, trying to convince them they don't represent the majority is futile.

They don't even represent a true minority, more like a spattering of knuckle draggers with no meaningful purpose in life other than honking their horns and writing drivel on placards and social media.

[GCn20]

45 minutes ago, Fatty Liver said:

I'm fairly confident Chrystia Freeland will step in as the next PM once Trudeau decides he's had enough.

 

IF Trudeau decides he's had enough. That may be the biggest problem facing the Liberals right now. Convincing Trudeau to leave may become problematic, although indications are he may step aside. Freeland is no magic bullet for the Liberals, she is the front runner though no doubt about it but whenever a leader leaves there is jockeying within the rank and file and it can get quite nasty. I would think that if Trudeau reads the tea leaves and retires gracefully before the next election that the Liberals chances of getting Freeland entrenched within the ranks goes up exponentially. If it's an ugly divorce after an election loss or 3rd consecutive underperformance then things could blow up real good. Like it or not, Freeland is tied pretty tight to the Trudeau brand as his hand picked successor.

Edited March 23, 2022 by GCn20

[Tracker]

2 hours ago, Super Duper Negatron said:

Wouldn't have voted for him, but good for Obby. Made this community his home, built up some successful business ventures and got elected as a Muslim to the Conservative party in Manitoba.

Not sure if the last description is a compliment.

[johnzo]

7 hours ago, GCn20 said:

Their combined support is less than 50%. Not sure what numbers you are going off of.

In the 2021 election, the Libs won 32.62% of the popular vote and the NDP won 17.82%.  Which adds up to 50.4%. 

A majority of Canadian voters voted in support of the current government.  It's a small majority, but it is >50%.

[JCon]

Given that every minority gov't needs another party to help pass their legislation, I don't know what all the fuss is about? 

It's the clear the Cons have no interest in governing or being a part of anything, so the NDP are a natural pick. 

The CPCs just keep spinning themselves into a smaller and smaller, less relevant party. 

[Tracker]

CBC: Everything we know about the Liberal-NDP dental care proposal

A proposal in the new Liberal-NDP agreement to create a national dental care program for low-income Canadians could deliver the largest expansion of Canada's public health care system in decades.

"It is a matter of dignity," NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said Tuesday. "This will make a massive difference for health and for people's quality of life."

The deal to create a dental program is part of the new Liberal-NDP "supply-and-confidence" agreement. The agreement will see the New Democrats support the minority Liberal government on confidence votes until 2025 in exchange for action on several NDP priorities.
The NDP campaigned on a promise of a national dental care program during Singh's two elections as party leader, but previous Liberal governments never moved on the project.
Under the program, families with annual incomes of less than $90,000 lacking dental insurance would be eligible for coverage.

Anyone making less than $70,000 annually also would not have to make co-pays — the flat rate fee which otherwise can be charged each time a person makes a claim. Dental fees would be fully covered by the government for any person or family with an income under $70,000.

The proposal is nearly identical to the policy plank in NDP platforms for the 2019 and 2021 elections.

The federal Liberals are promising to introduce a dental care program for middle- and low-income Canadian families, under its confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP. Officials expect the program will start later this year for kids under 12, with full implementation by 2025. 2:10
The system would function along the lines of private insurance plans. The plan does not call for specific investments in health care infrastructure or for workers to support the needs of dental patients.

About 6.5 million Canadians are believed to be eligible for the plan. That figure is projected to decrease slightly to 6.3 million by 2025 due to demographic shifts and improving labour market conditions.
The plan is to be phased in over three years before the Liberal-NDP agreement expires in 2025.  Starting later this year, children under 12 would become eligible for the program.  In 2023, the coverage would be extended to 18-year-olds, seniors and people living with disabilities.

The program would be fully implemented by 2025 under the proposed timeline.

[Mark H.]

5 hours ago, Wideleft said:

 The only person interested in playing games (Wilson-Reybould) was dealt with long ago.

I disagree that she was playing games.  The time for a cabinet minister to question the cozy relationship between SCN - Lavalin and the Feds was past due.

It's the kind of thing that used to cause election losses - but somehow not anymore.

30 minutes ago, JCon said:

Given that every minority gov't needs another party to help pass their legislation, I don't know what all the fuss is about? 

It's the clear the Cons have no interest in governing or being a part of anything, so the NDP are a natural pick. 

The CPCs just keep spinning themselves into a smaller and smaller, less relevant party. 

The last time this happened (although more informally than with Martin / Layton) Stephen Harper made sure it didn't last very long

But there is no Harper - this time...

[Fatty Liver]

2 hours ago, GCn20 said:

IF Trudeau decides he's had enough. That may be the biggest problem facing the Liberals right now. Convincing Trudeau to leave may become problematic, although indications are he may step aside. Freeland is no magic bullet for the Liberals, she is the front runner though no doubt about it but whenever a leader leaves there is jockeying within the rank and file and it can get quite nasty. I would think that if Trudeau reads the tea leaves and retires gracefully before the next election that the Liberals chances of getting Freeland entrenched within the ranks goes up exponentially. If it's an ugly divorce after an election loss or 3rd consecutive underperformance then things could blow up real good. Like it or not, Freeland is tied pretty tight to the Trudeau brand as his hand picked successor.

You never know, but I don't get the sense the current Liberal party is as ego driven as it was in the past when the Chretien/Martin camps were battling for control.  I think as a group they're smart enough to realize they currently have a distinct advantage in support over the opposition parties and if they push forward as a cohesive front they can remain the governing party for the foreseeable future.  They've just come through a very difficult stretch without visible cracks and unless Mark Carney decides he wants to get nasty and steal the crown for himself, they should continue onward without any reasonable alternative in sight.

As long as the Conservatives continue to splinter their ranks, they'll have a difficult time gaining any momentum with voters.

[SpeedFlex27]

Trudeau has had 6 years to bring in pharmacare & dental care. It's always been on the agenda & promised but Trudeau has never done a thing about it. If Trudeau decides he won't bring in these 2 changes to healthcare then the NDP will withdraw support & Trudeau will just make a deal with the Bloc who have 7 more seats than the NDP. It's all a game & about keeping power. This has nothing to do with what is best for Canadians but what is best for the Trudeau Liberals. 

This is NOT a coalition government. If it was, then members of the NDP would be put into Cabinet. Singh would have one of the most important portfolio's like  Finance, Environment or Foreign Affairs. Other key NDP MP's would be included into Cabinet as well. They won't be. This is just getting the NDP not to vote down any bill creating a No Confidence situation in the government. The NDP are always broke. They always need time to pay off their election debt & fund raise. That's why there'll never be a true coalition government. Just the NDP preventing another quick election.