https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

I do want to remind everyone on how much more the offense opened up during LaPo's tenure when they had Streveler and Collaros playing.   I think A LOT of the issues was Nichols being terrified of holding the ball and making more then one read and then safety valve dump off.  

Lapo's issues more so were trying to be to cute at many times throughout the game and also being to cute with Streveler in his 2nd season playing with us. 

 

The offense never platooned Nichols and Streveler at any point during the 2019 season prior to the former's season-ending injury. Streveler was deployed in a backup/third down role at that time while Nichols was playing well at the beginning of that season.

Whether that's an LaPolice or not is irrelevant at this point, IMO. But I think it's fair to say he relied predominantly on Harris as the feature of the offense for the four seasons he was here as OC, with the passing game taking a back seat way more often than not.

3 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

The offense never platooned Nichols and Streveler at any point during the 2019 season prior to the former's season-ending injury. Streveler was deployed in a backup/third down role at that time while Nichols was playing well at the beginning of that season.

Whether that's an LaPolice or not is irrelevant at this point, IMO. But I think it's fair to say he relied predominantly on Harris as the feature of the offense for the four seasons he was here as OC, with the passing game taking a back seat way more often than not.

I agree but there were a lot of touches that Harris got simply by virtue of being the check down as well. That's not on Lapo though that relies on your QB's read of the situation.

13 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

I agree but there were a lot of touches that Harris got simply by virtue of being the check down as well. That's not on Lapo though that relies on your QB's read of the situation.

He's an excellent dual threat tailback and I think any QB would want to maximize having him at his disposal. The 2019 Grey Cup was a great example of that.

I just think it's fair to say Harris was, at least from 2016 through 2019, the straw that stirred the offense's drink, regardless of who was behind centre. That could be a knock on LaPolice's mantra as an OC in that it was a somewhat one dimensional system, but it resulted in more success than not.
This season's been markedly different for a handful of reasons: a new and arguably more balanced system under Pierce (I'd say his experience as a QB plays a major role), Harris' injury troubles (his awareness in the backfield is second to none), the sophomore success of Lawler and Bailey (their progression has been huge), and Collaros getting a full TC here (he looks more like the gunslinger of old), as well as his ability to extend plays using his feet (something Nichols couldn't do in his last two seasons here).

Edited October 28, 20214 yr by blue_gold_84

There seems to be a lot of Lapo slander. I mean we know he’s not a perfect coach. But he is a good coach and he helped transform our offense and our team in general. Remember our team was 5-13 the season before Lapo came to the Bombers. He wasn’t the only reason obviously but was a part of the re emergence of our football team becoming respectable and I thought down the stretch in 2019 once we had Collaros he had some of his best play calling. Was a little conservative? Sure, is a good head coach? Well that’s yet to be determined but maybe not but he certainly had a huge impact on our team winning the grey cup in 2019.

In the CFL OC are judged by the passing game but I feel like he looked at what he had at his disposal, a huge physical O-line and a hall of fame back and built the offense around that. No other team was close to the Bombers in times they ran ball. Defense around the league have been built to stop pass first getting small and quicker Bombers went big physical wear you down. Get 6-7 yards on first down running the ball on second down. Even if you are a yard short you got Streveler the line to to move the chains. 

Ohhh I see. They actually didn't want first place anyway:

https://3downnation.com/2021/10/28/roughriders-losing-out-on-first-place-could-be-blessing-in-disguise/

Sure as **** were not saying that in 2019. Interesting.

I honestly hate everything about that poverty franchise.

42 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

I agree but there were a lot of touches that Harris got simply by virtue of being the check down as well. That's not on Lapo though that relies on your QB's read of the situation.

In 2018 it was very obvious that it was Nichols because Strev would come in and throw darts 10 - 20 yards down field and suddenly the receivers were seeing balls come towards them and making plays and the team could go vertical.  

2019 was more of the same... we had receivers running routes but if the first read wasn't wide open he immediately went to the checkdown.  You rarely if never saw him extend plays and/or make plays on the run.  This is why in the play offs people went crazy for Zach because he would scramble and buy some time and then throw the ball to whoever was open regardless if it was a designed play.  

34 minutes ago, Geebrr said:

Ohhh I see. They actually didn't want first place anyway:

https://3downnation.com/2021/10/28/roughriders-losing-out-on-first-place-could-be-blessing-in-disguise/

Sure as **** were not saying that in 2019. Interesting.

Counter point: 

"When you start the year you have a one-in-nine chance of winning a Grey Cup," Fajardo said. "Then you clinch a playoff spot and have a one-in-six chance.

"Then you want to get the first-round bye where you have a one-in-four chance. Our goal is to be a one-in-four chance team clinching with a bye week because I've been on the positive side of that where you get that week off and get to prepare and get healthy for the last playoff push."

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/football/cfl/toronto-argonauts-saskatchewan-roughriders-week-16-1.5301695

37 minutes ago, Geebrr said:

Ohhh I see. They actually didn't want first place anyway:

https://3downnation.com/2021/10/28/roughriders-losing-out-on-first-place-could-be-blessing-in-disguise/

Sure as **** were not saying that in 2019. Interesting.

 I really hope the "writers" at 3DN don't get paid for whatever this is...

6 minutes ago, JCon said:

Counter point: 

"When you start the year you have a one-in-nine chance of winning a Grey Cup," Fajardo said. "Then you clinch a playoff spot and have a one-in-six chance.

"Then you want to get the first-round bye where you have a one-in-four chance. Our goal is to be a one-in-four chance team clinching with a bye week because I've been on the positive side of that where you get that week off and get to prepare and get healthy for the last playoff push."

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/football/cfl/toronto-argonauts-saskatchewan-roughriders-week-16-1.5301695

The Bombers have never really said that hosting the WF was one of their goals.

They will play anywhere, any time, against any body.

Source: 2019 

 

2 minutes ago, bearpants said:

 I really hope the "writers" at 3DN don't get paid for whatever this is...

That’s an awful article. Even if they win 42 percent of the time that’s close to a 50 percent chance of playing for the Grey cup opposed to having to win two games to make it to the Grey cup. If you look at those odds from purely just a statistical view that’s a 25 percent chance to make it to the Grey Cup. 

just another reason to not cheer for a Bombers/Riders west final... I really hope Sask loses the WSF and then someone asks "how important do you think the bye is?"...

5 minutes ago, bearpants said:

 I really hope the "writers" at 3DN don't get paid for whatever this is...

You mean you don't care about the numerous articles covering topics such as what kind of foods Faj likes to eat? 

4 minutes ago, Arnold_Palmer said:

That’s an awful article. Even if they win 42 percent of the time that’s close to a 50 percent chance of playing for the Grey cup opposed to having to win two games to make it to the Grey cup. If you look at those odds from purely just a statistical view that’s a 25 percent chance to make it to the Grey Cup. 

This is the same "writer" that wrote, on July 19th, 2019:  This jury still has plenty of deliberating to do before reaching a verdict on Cody Fajardo or the 2019 Saskatchewan Roughriders.

https://3downnation.com/2019/07/20/jury-still-out-on-fajardo-riders-after-stampeders-shellackin/

And wrote: But yet somehow, now that Cody Fajardo has signed on the dotted line, the future looks and feels a whole brighter for the Riders.

Even though we all saw it coming from miles away.

On October 23rd, 2019. https://3downnation.com/2019/10/23/the-riders-reward-cody-fajardo-for-rescuing-the-franchise-identity/

Edited October 28, 20214 yr by JCon

3 minutes ago, Arnold_Palmer said:

That’s an awful article. Even if they win 42 percent of the time that’s close to a 50 percent chance of playing for the Grey cup opposed to having to win two games to make it to the Grey cup. If you look at those odds from purely just a statistical view that’s a 25 percent chance to make it to the Grey Cup. 

John Hodge actually did a reasonably interesting article that focused on much more recent history and the whole league  looking at the impact of clinching with 3 games left on the schedule:

 

https://3downnation.com/2021/10/27/heres-how-cfl-teams-have-fared-historically-after-clinching-first-place-early/

"Since 2000, eleven CFL teams have had to play three or more regular season games after clinching the top spot in their division. They went a combined 21-19 in these meaningless games, after which ten of these teams reached the Grey Cup with a combined record of 5-5."

Just now, Geebrr said:

John Hodge actually did a reasonably interesting article that focused on much more recent history and the whole league  looking at the impact of clinching with 3 games left on the schedule:

 

https://3downnation.com/2021/10/27/heres-how-cfl-teams-have-fared-historically-after-clinching-first-place-early/

"Since 2000, eleven CFL teams have had to play three or more regular season games after clinching the top spot in their division. They went a combined 21-19 in these meaningless games, after which ten of these teams reached the Grey Cup with a combined record of 5-5."

I just read that article. Much more reasonable and interesting. 

Teams went 10/11 advancing to the Cup. The only team not to was Montreal.

The West went 3/3 in the West Final and 2-1 in the GC with Calgary losing in OT to Ottawa.

17 hours ago, 17to85 said:

Does no one remember when O’Shea hired lapo all the talk from lapo about wanting more say on the players he had on offense? He basically implied Mack didn't give him the input he wanted when he was head coach here and he didn't want to go through that again. (More evidence of his arrogance) so he clearly got some more saying Ottawa and it doesn't look good on him. 

Lapo has some definite strengths. But he also has some weaknesses that hold him back as a coach. 

The only potential one is Darian Durant but I'm not totally sure on his early story with the riders.

Ahh I fondly remember him as a Bomber said no one ever.

If they can pull off a W this week, that could be real good news for Lucky and his chances at a playoff cheque.

Since 2010 (the previous 10 seasons in order) for the team finishing 1st in the West:

2010 -Calgary - choked in the West Final

2011- BC- won the Grey Cup

2012- BC- lost in the West Final

2013 - sask- won the grey cup abusing the salary cap

2014 - Calgary- won the Grey Cup

2015- Edmonton - won the Grey Cup

2016- Calgary lost in the Grey Cup

2017- Calgary lost in the Grey Cup

2018- Calgary won the Grey Cup

2019- sask lost the West Final to a far superior team

Summary:  7-3 in the West Final

                     5-2 in the Grey Cup. 

 

I like hosting the West Final.

* Did this fairly quickly so please correct if there are errors

Edited October 28, 20214 yr by Geebrr
Corrected 2010

CFL is boring now, says long time Rider scrub... oops, I mean "scribe". 

https://leaderpost.com/sports/football/cfl/saskatchewan-roughriders/rob-vanstone-all-is-not-swell-in-the-once-exciting-cfl

I have loved the Canadian Football League for 50 years, which makes the following sentence unpleasant to write — and, in all likelihood, to read. Canadian professional football has become an eyesore. The games are seldom compelling or entertaining. There is a somniferous sameness to the product, a problem that has also afflicted the NHL. Does every CFL team have the same playbook? It certainly appears that way. Defensive co-ordinators are unbending in their resolve to bend, but not break. As a result, what should be — and what used to be — a wide-open game has become a festival of hitch screens, slow-developing handoffs from the shotgun formation, and punts. The amateur game is alive and well, as evidenced by some recent shootouts in the Regina Intercollegiate Football League , Prairie Football Conference and Canada West, but the pros are ruining it for everyone.

 

 

1 hour ago, Geebrr said:

Ohhh I see. They actually didn't want first place anyway:

https://3downnation.com/2021/10/28/roughriders-losing-out-on-first-place-could-be-blessing-in-disguise/

Sure as **** were not saying that in 2019. Interesting.

 

1 hour ago, Arnold_Palmer said:

That’s an awful article. Even if they win 42 percent of the time that’s close to a 50 percent chance of playing for the Grey cup opposed to having to win two games to make it to the Grey cup. If you look at those odds from purely just a statistical view that’s a 25 percent chance to make it to the Grey Cup. 

Getting some serious Brian Fantana vibes from 3DN...