https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

 

any idea what time today the cfl is supposed to announce / have a press conference? It seems strange that the day of it still isnt known. 

there won't be a press conference, I don't think. Something will be announced on their socials. Yesterday was the Board of Governors meeting, and today they'll finalize what the official statement is. I'd bet sometime this afternoon...

https://www.tsn.ca/cfl-announces-plans-for-shortened-season-starting-in-august-1.1627462

The Canadian Football League has announced a plan to cut its 2021 regular season from 18 to 14 games, while moving its start date back nearly two months from June 10 to Aug. 5.

The Grey Cup, originally scheduled for Nov. 21 in Hamilton, is now slated to be played on Dec. 12.

 

While a target date to resume play is a welcome bit of clarity for the CFL’s various stakeholders, the league stopped short of committing to play without governments lifting restrictions on fans attending games.

It all points to a period in mid-June when the league will have to assess whether its new start date is attainable.

“Aug. 5 is based on a lot of conversations with public health authorities that we would have a lot more information and will see a real decline as this third wave passes through,” said commissioner Randy Ambrosie. “With more and more people getting vaccinated, there’s a lot of indication that early June will give us more information for a final decision to go.

“In early June we’ll be collecting all of our data and be in contact with public health officials.”

Ambrosie said he could not be specific about what percentage of stadiums would have to be open to fans for the league to play, given the different capacities.

“We will work with each team and their local health authorities to see what is possible in their market,” he said.

The CFL’s announcement follows a meeting of club presidents and governors on Tuesday, roughly three weeks before rookies were due to report for training camp.

While a delay to the start of the season has been obvious for at least the past couple of weeks due to the third wave of COVID-19 in Canada, the league has been under pressure to reveal as much of its plan as possible.

The CFL has received at least verbal approval of its return-to-play protocol from four of the six provinces in which it plays, with Ontario and Quebec as the exceptions. That isn’t expected to be an issue once the third wave subsides.

But the issue of fans in stands remains a potential hurdle. If restrictions on fans in stands are lifted in Western Canada sooner than in Eastern Canada, the league is prepared to relocate early-season games to the west.

“We may think about taking our teams on the road from the east to play in a place where they may have opened up fans in the stands,” Ambrosie said. “There is a commitment to play in 2021 and all the work that will happen to where we can make a comfortable final decision to go.”

Making a decision to go could mean such things as eliminating preseason games, rookie camps or shortening training camp.

“All of those issues are up for grabs,” said Ambrosie. “Everything is on the table.”

A new start to the season will also require an amended collective agreement with the Canadian Football League Players’ Association.

“I’m confident we can work together to put together a plan,” Ambrosie said.

As for what happens if the league cannot commit to its Aug. 5 start date by mid-June, Ambrosie said the league would continue to press on with alternate plans.

“We have backup plans and backup plans to our backup plans … we are committed to playing in 2021,” he said

 

 

Interesting stuff about moving East games out West, in order to get fans in the stands. I have absolutely no doubt that AB will be among the first to allow fans in attendance. Limited capacity, with masks, at outdoor venues sometime in June, I truly believe. Alberta will go Full Texas, and try to reopen fastest....for better or worse.

Edited April 21, 20214 yr by Noeller

I'm at my inlaws and hear this over the radio here in St Albert, I screamed and they scared the **** out of everyone.  

 

Really happy the plan to play is public and an August start date is probably more realistic.  

 

A dec 12 grey cup outside will be really interesting....

They play football in Buffalo for another month past that date. If the Bills host AFC championship game could have a game end of January 

Just now, Jpan85 said:

They play football in Buffalo for another month past that date. If the Bills host AFC championship game could have a game end of January 

I was thinking that but I imagine they dont want to have no grey cup winner in 2021 as well as 2020. And the earlier end to the season gives them a chance to move the start of next season back earlier with out heavily shortening the off season window. 

10 minutes ago, Jpan85 said:

They play football in Buffalo for another month past that date. If the Bills host AFC championship game could have a game end of January 

There's certainly been some ugly weather games in Green Bay and New York late in the season... I don't love the idea of a -30 Grey Cup... but if a run-dominant Bombers team is playing, I could probably live with it  

At this point having even a shortened season would be great to look forward to.

I really and truly believe this is going to work..... if we maintain our current rate of vaccination (or, God forbid, increase it...) we're going to be in good shape come July 1. Open camps in mid July, and fire up the season on the August Long Weekend... let's f***ing GOOOOOOO.......

13 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

"Harumph, I'll believe it when I see it!!"  

They can play into December because the GC game will be in Hamilton & I doubt they'll be facing minus 30 temperatures like they would in Regina. Teams will be lucky to get just one break if it's an 18 game schedule. I'd be happy with 12-14. 

 The Grey Cup game is now scheduled for December 12th in Hamilton. And a 14 game schedule. Well, just like I said. How do ya like that??? 

5 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I really and truly believe this is going to work..... if we maintain our current rate of vaccination (or, God forbid, increase it...) we're going to be in good shape come July 1. Open camps in mid July, and fire up the season on the August Long Weekend... let's f***ing GOOOOOOO.......

Bring the guys in who are supposed to be on the team other than a few where there is actual competition from retirements, So a small TC roster & skip the exhibition season. Then go in 3 weeks. 

Edited April 21, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

They have a verbal agreement in the West, assuming the 3rd wave subsides, but don't even have that for the East. Maybe the Eastern teams will play road games for a month at the beginning of the season. They haven't got buy in from the CFLPA and they'll look at the dates again in June. Basically a thoughts and prayers announcement. We think we might be able to do August and we pray that Covid won't still be a problem.

1 minute ago, TBURGESS said:

They have a verbal agreement in the West, assuming the 3rd wave subsides, but don't even have that for the East. Maybe the Eastern teams will play road games for a month at the beginning of the season. They haven't got buy in from the CFLPA and they'll look at the dates again in June. Basically a thoughts and prayers announcement. We think we might be able to do August and we pray that Covid won't still be a problem.

 

Covid means planning is hard, if not impossible. This is at least a target to shoot for in order to get all the stakeholders on the same page, which is more than we had yesterday.

 

couple of notes, one positive one negative: 

-Ambrosie said they have back-up plans to their back-up plans.......so they really are working hard to make sure some kind of 2021 season plays. (Positive)

-Ambrosie says the planned start date is "contingent on a 'significant' number of fans in the stands", with no real clarification on what that means exactly.... (Negative)

 

So much is up in the air right now, but I really believe that, as fast as the case counts escalated, they will fall just as quickly once the vaccines start taking effect. By mid-May, I think we'll already be seeing a significant decline...

27 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

They have a verbal agreement in the West, assuming the 3rd wave subsides, but don't even have that for the East. Maybe the Eastern teams will play road games for a month at the beginning of the season. They haven't got buy in from the CFLPA and they'll look at the dates again in June. Basically a thoughts and prayers announcement. We think we might be able to do August and we pray that Covid won't still be a problem.

Ford will be sure that the Ontario teams get approval to play. 

Farhan Lalji's Twitter feed:

From Bo Levi Mitchell: I think we are all disappointed, not in the league or the govt. b/c everyone is trying to do what they think is right, but just in the fact that we aren’t playing & we just want to play. It’s what we do. We’re football players. It’s what we love. We miss it.

 

I'm with Bo on this one.

57 minutes ago, Noeller said:

couple of notes, one positive one negative: 

-Ambrosie said they have back-up plans to their back-up plans.......so they really are working hard to make sure some kind of 2021 season plays. (Positive)

-Ambrosie says the planned start date is "contingent on a 'significant' number of fans in the stands", with no real clarification on what that means exactly.... (Negative)

 

So much is up in the air right now, but I really believe that, as fast as the case counts escalated, they will fall just as quickly once the vaccines start taking effect. By mid-May, I think we'll already be seeing a significant decline...

That can't be true. I've been told all he does is travel the world looking for foreign football players and scarfs. 

At this point, I'll just wait and see. I can't get excited about an announcement that just pushes the season later and provides no detail on the conditions for meeting the August start date. 

 

Vaccine's...vaccine's   ...vaccines is the name of the game....I'm hoping the rate of needles in arms jumps precipitously and we can start putting this pandemic behind us....Fans in the stands is key and with some sort of protocol adjustment this version of the season just might work....Americans saying today they are upping the supply of vaccine to Canada today...Anything and everything will help...Finally a glimmer of hope

From Wade: 

Dear Season Ticket Member, We worked hard to kick off the 2021 season on time but over the last month, COVID-19 has taken hold of parts of the country. The positive news is that we are still planning for a 14-game schedule (7 regular season home games plus a potential home playoff game)  starting on August 5th - full statement from the CFL below. Our Fan Services team will send a separate email by the end of this week with the specifics on what this change means for your season ticket account. As vaccination rates increase and the majority of Canadians are immunized by July 1, we will be in a good position to start in August, subject to public health approval. We’ve seen that as vaccinations have increased around the world, so has the ability for other leagues to welcome fans back to their stands.    A new schedule will be released in early May which will see us playing a lot of football at IG Field in August. Like many other venues that have successfully welcomed back fans, IG Field will use a pod-seating configuration, where small groupings of fans will be safely distanced from each other throughout the stadium. Once the schedule is released, our Fan Services team will provide additional information as to what action you will need to take. On behalf of the entire organization, thank you for your ongoing support as we work through the end of this pandemic. We are very close to getting back to IG Field to cheer on your championship team.   The one thing we know for certain is that the quicker our community reaches higher levels of vaccination, the quicker we will be able to get you back to IG Field. When it’s your turn, the most impactful thing you can do is get vaccinated so we can tackle COVID-19 together.   Go Bombers,   Wade Miller President and CEO

 

9 hours ago, Bigblue204 said:

That can't be true. I've been told all he does is travel the world looking for foreign football players and scarfs. 

Then afterwards he comes back from Europe & Mexico & spreads the variants.

Holy ****, how I miss football.

2.13% of Canadians are fully vaccinated as of today. .25% of the population got their 2nd shot last week. That's 1% of the population getting 2nd shots a month. At that rate, it will take 97 more months to get everyone vaccinated.

17% of Canadians have received a single dose. 3.96% got their 1st shot last week. That's 15.84% getting their first shot a month. That's 5.25 months to get everyone a single dose, which puts us into September and the reason the Government can say everyone will be vaccinated by September. Of course, you're not fully vaccinated until a couple of weeks after the second shot, but Governments don't care about facts.

 

40 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

2.13% of Canadians are fully vaccinated as of today. .25% of the population got their 2nd shot last week. That's 1% of the population getting 2nd shots a month. At that rate, it will take 97 more months to get everyone vaccinated.

17% of Canadians have received a single dose. 3.96% got their 1st shot last week. That's 15.84% getting their first shot a month. That's 5.25 months to get everyone a single dose, which puts us into September and the reason the Government can say everyone will be vaccinated by September. Of course, you're not fully vaccinated until a couple of weeks after the second shot, but Governments don't care about facts.

 

They'll have enough doses to vaccinate everyone who wants it and is eligible by the end of June and fully vaccinated by the end of September. Exactly what they've been saying since fall. 

 

 

By the end of June, there will be enough vaccines in Canada to have 22 Million people fully vaccinated. 

This is behind a paywall but you can track the progress here: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-vaccine-tracker-canada-latest-numbers-explainer/

Edited April 22, 20214 yr by JCon

Here what we will see when we start reaching 75% of the adult population get their first shot.