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"Wood Mackenzie forecast demand for oil would start to fall from 2023 under this scenario and this decline would quickly accelerate thereafter, with year-on-year falls of around 2 million barrels a day. 

The report said oil prices could go into “terminal decline,” with international benchmark Brent crude falling to between $37 and $42 a barrel by 2030. "

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/oil-could-plummet-to-10-by-2050-if-paris-climate-goals-are-achieved.html

 

scenario referred to is meeting paris goals.

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I thought I'd wade in here with a few thoughts, just to discuss a few points people have made (WARNING: very long post). First off, I have a doctorate degree in Earth Sciences, have worked as an activ

Not peer reviewed.  From ESI's own website:  "ESI continues its long-standing interest in climate change, although its focus has changed considerably. True to its dedication to evidence-based public p

The town that built back green By Annie Gowen  OCTOBER 23, 2020   After a tornado demolished Greensburg, Kan., it rebuilt without carbon emissions. Can its lessons help communities an

  1. Oregon drought  

https://thecounter.org/oregon-farms-water-klamath-river-drought-salmon/

  • "On April 14, the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), a federal agency that oversees the Klamath irrigation project, announced that farmers would only get 33,000 acre-feet of water this year due to drought conditions—the lowest allotment in its history. The project spans from southern Oregon to northern California. For context, farmers saythey need 400,000 acre-feet in drought years. That didn’t stop the Klamath Drainage District (KDD) in southern Oregon—a public entity contracted to deliver water in the region—from turning on the spigot for its constituents two days later.

Growing resentment from farmers has caused some to worry about potential violence this year. Last Thursday, the “People’s Rights” group announced a call to farmers and ranchers in the basin to “STAND UP AND PROTECT YOUR PRIVATE PROPERTY, YOUR WATER!” People’s Rights is the far-right militia group founded by Ammon Bundy, known for leading a takeover of a federal wildlife refuge in 2016. 

 

There’s got to be some retreat in the Klamath Basin,” said Dan Tarlock, a professor emeritus of environmental law at the Illinois Institute of Technology, who has written extensively about water conflicts in the basin. “I think it’s pretty clear there’s not enough water to support the existing level of agriculture.”

 

there is going to be water shortage violence.

and americans will want canada to give them water.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mark F
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4 hours ago, Mark F said:
  1. Oregon drought  

https://thecounter.org/oregon-farms-water-klamath-river-drought-salmon/

  • "On April 14, the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), a federal agency that oversees the Klamath irrigation project, announced that farmers would only get 33,000 acre-feet of water this year due to drought conditions—the lowest allotment in its history. The project spans from southern Oregon to northern California. For context, farmers saythey need 400,000 acre-feet in drought years. That didn’t stop the Klamath Drainage District (KDD) in southern Oregon—a public entity contracted to deliver water in the region—from turning on the spigot for its constituents two days later.

Growing resentment from farmers has caused some to worry about potential violence this year. Last Thursday, the “People’s Rights” group announced a call to farmers and ranchers in the basin to “STAND UP AND PROTECT YOUR PRIVATE PROPERTY, YOUR WATER!” People’s Rights is the far-right militia group founded by Ammon Bundy, known for leading a takeover of a federal wildlife refuge in 2016. 

 

There’s got to be some retreat in the Klamath Basin,” said Dan Tarlock, a professor emeritus of environmental law at the Illinois Institute of Technology, who has written extensively about water conflicts in the basin. “I think it’s pretty clear there’s not enough water to support the existing level of agriculture.”

 

there is going to be water shortage violence.

and Americans will want Canada to give them water.

 

 

 

 

The water shortage in the US is already there, partially due to climate change and also due to wasteful water usage practices in the American southwest- and that includes California. Some 30 years ago, the Americans held a conference called "Water For Peace" and the invitees were the US, Canada and Mexico.  Not hard to figure out the dynamics there.

There was a plan tabled wherein the Americans would foot the bill for a massive dam across the northern end of James Bay. That would raise the water level several meters and re-direct all the waters flowing into James Bay into the Great Lakes, raising their levels in turn and ultimately directing water into the Mississippi and thence into the American southwest. A grandiose plan but a frightening one.

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53 minutes ago, Tracker said:

The water shortage in the US is already there, partially due to climate change and also due to wasteful water usage practices in the American southwest- and that includes California. Some 30 years ago, the Americans held a conference called "Water For Peace" and the invitees were the US, Canada and Mexico.  Not hard to figure out the dynamics there.

There was a plan tabled wherein the Americans would foot the bill for a massive dam across the northern end of James Bay. That would raise the water level several meters and re-direct all the waters flowing into James Bay into the Great Lakes, raising their levels in turn and ultimately directing water into the Mississippi and thence into the American southwest. A grandiose plan but a frightening one.

Can you just imagine the mercury levels and the flooding...

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CTV news.

EDMONTON -- Alberta is changing how it calculates the payments oilsands mines make to ensure there's enough money to clean up the mess they leave behind.

The province says the decision is in reaction to low oil prices last year, which briefly reached negative values.

Lisa Fairweather of Alberta Environment says keeping the old program would have cost the industry billions of extra dollars, even though the environmental risk of the mines hasn't changed.

😂 " extra dollars"

She says today's move is temporary until a complete review of environmental security payments is held this summer.

Critics say the changes will reduce payments into a cleanup fund that the auditor general has said is already too low.

Under the changes, Alberta will no longer calculate payments based on a company's environmental liabilities and its assets.

Instead, the calculation will be based on a company's revenue.... 

 

lucky albertans. such an understanding and considerate governing party.

ctv news.

 

 

Edited by Mark F
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1 hour ago, Mark F said:

CTV news.

EDMONTON -- Alberta is changing how it calculates the payments oilsands mines make to ensure there's enough money to clean up the mess they leave behind.

The province says the decision is in reaction to low oil prices last year, which briefly reached negative values.

Lisa Fairweather of Alberta Environment says keeping the old program would have cost the industry billions of extra dollars, even though the environmental risk of the mines hasn't changed.

😂 " extra dollars"

She says today's move is temporary until a complete review of environmental security payments is held this summer. Critics say the changes will reduce payments into a cleanup fund that the auditor general has said is already too low.

Under the changes, Alberta will no longer calculate payments based on a company's environmental liabilities and its assets. Instead, the calculation will be based on a company's revenue....  

lucky albertans. such an understanding and considerate governing party.

ctv news.

 

 

And guess who is going to get stuck with the bar tab once the party is over?

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3 hours ago, Tracker said:

And guess who is going to get stuck with the bar tab once the party is over?

no doubt about that one.

good example of "Regulatory capture"

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"London (CNN Business)A Dutch court has ruled that Royal Dutch Shell must dramatically reduce its carbon emissions in a landmark climate decision that could have far reaching consequences for oil companies.

The company must slash its CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels, according to a judgment from a district court in The Hague on Wednesday. That includes emissions from its own operations and from the energy products it sells.

This is the first time that a court has ruled a company needs to reduce its emissionsin line with global climate goals, according to Friends of the Earth Netherlands, an environmental campaigning group that brought the case against Shell (RDSA)."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/business/shell-court-case-climate-change/index.html

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thought this was going to happen

 

"The European Union is considering a new tax on imports as it tries to fight climate change, and the U.S. is raising concerns about it.

At issue is what’s known as a border adjustment carbon tax.

The tax is designed to level the playing field for European companies by holding imports responsible for their greenhouse gas emissions the same way domestically produced products are"

 

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/eu-wants-carbon-tax-imports-would-it-be-effective-climate-solution

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/oxygen-climate-lakes-1.6059334

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"The Earth is getting warmer. And as it does, the lakes are less capable of holding oxygen. And oxygen is needed for every living thing," said Peter Leavitt, a University of Regina biologist who co-authored the study. "There's less for fish to breathe. And that has a knock-on effect on pretty much everything in the lake."

The study, led by Stephen Jane, a PhD student at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, N.Y., looked at changes in oxygen levels from 393 temperate lakes between 1941 and 2017. They were mostly in the U.S. and Europe, but included a couple in New Zealand and three sets in Canada: 

  • Lakes near the Dorset Environmental Science Centre in Muskoka, Ont.
  • The IISD Experimental Lakes Area research station near Kenora, Ont.
  • The Qu'Appelle River system lakes in southern Saskatchewan.

The researchers found that from 1980 to 2017, oxygen levels fell by about five per cent near the surface and 19 per cent in deep waters, they reported in the journal Nature last week.

The decline in oxygen levels in lakes is 2.75 to 9.3 times higher than the decline in oxygen in the world's oceans, which has also raised concern among scientists about the health of aquatic life.

 

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"Canada will not approve new thermal coal mining projects or plans to expand existing mines because of the potential for environmental damage, Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Friday.

"The government considers that these projects are likely to cause unacceptable environmental effects within federal jurisdiction and are not aligned with Canada's domestic and international climate change commitments," he said."

 

Reuters

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