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The Anthropogenic Climate Change Thread


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"Wood Mackenzie forecast demand for oil would start to fall from 2023 under this scenario and this decline would quickly accelerate thereafter, with year-on-year falls of around 2 million barrels a day. 

The report said oil prices could go into “terminal decline,” with international benchmark Brent crude falling to between $37 and $42 a barrel by 2030. "

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/oil-could-plummet-to-10-by-2050-if-paris-climate-goals-are-achieved.html

 

scenario referred to is meeting paris goals.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  1. Oregon drought  

https://thecounter.org/oregon-farms-water-klamath-river-drought-salmon/

  • "On April 14, the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), a federal agency that oversees the Klamath irrigation project, announced that farmers would only get 33,000 acre-feet of water this year due to drought conditions—the lowest allotment in its history. The project spans from southern Oregon to northern California. For context, farmers saythey need 400,000 acre-feet in drought years. That didn’t stop the Klamath Drainage District (KDD) in southern Oregon—a public entity contracted to deliver water in the region—from turning on the spigot for its constituents two days later.

Growing resentment from farmers has caused some to worry about potential violence this year. Last Thursday, the “People’s Rights” group announced a call to farmers and ranchers in the basin to “STAND UP AND PROTECT YOUR PRIVATE PROPERTY, YOUR WATER!” People’s Rights is the far-right militia group founded by Ammon Bundy, known for leading a takeover of a federal wildlife refuge in 2016. 

 

There’s got to be some retreat in the Klamath Basin,” said Dan Tarlock, a professor emeritus of environmental law at the Illinois Institute of Technology, who has written extensively about water conflicts in the basin. “I think it’s pretty clear there’s not enough water to support the existing level of agriculture.”

 

there is going to be water shortage violence.

and americans will want canada to give them water.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mark F
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4 hours ago, Mark F said:
  1. Oregon drought  

https://thecounter.org/oregon-farms-water-klamath-river-drought-salmon/

  • "On April 14, the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), a federal agency that oversees the Klamath irrigation project, announced that farmers would only get 33,000 acre-feet of water this year due to drought conditions—the lowest allotment in its history. The project spans from southern Oregon to northern California. For context, farmers saythey need 400,000 acre-feet in drought years. That didn’t stop the Klamath Drainage District (KDD) in southern Oregon—a public entity contracted to deliver water in the region—from turning on the spigot for its constituents two days later.

Growing resentment from farmers has caused some to worry about potential violence this year. Last Thursday, the “People’s Rights” group announced a call to farmers and ranchers in the basin to “STAND UP AND PROTECT YOUR PRIVATE PROPERTY, YOUR WATER!” People’s Rights is the far-right militia group founded by Ammon Bundy, known for leading a takeover of a federal wildlife refuge in 2016. 

 

There’s got to be some retreat in the Klamath Basin,” said Dan Tarlock, a professor emeritus of environmental law at the Illinois Institute of Technology, who has written extensively about water conflicts in the basin. “I think it’s pretty clear there’s not enough water to support the existing level of agriculture.”

 

there is going to be water shortage violence.

and Americans will want Canada to give them water.

 

 

 

 

The water shortage in the US is already there, partially due to climate change and also due to wasteful water usage practices in the American southwest- and that includes California. Some 30 years ago, the Americans held a conference called "Water For Peace" and the invitees were the US, Canada and Mexico.  Not hard to figure out the dynamics there.

There was a plan tabled wherein the Americans would foot the bill for a massive dam across the northern end of James Bay. That would raise the water level several meters and re-direct all the waters flowing into James Bay into the Great Lakes, raising their levels in turn and ultimately directing water into the Mississippi and thence into the American southwest. A grandiose plan but a frightening one.

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53 minutes ago, Tracker said:

The water shortage in the US is already there, partially due to climate change and also due to wasteful water usage practices in the American southwest- and that includes California. Some 30 years ago, the Americans held a conference called "Water For Peace" and the invitees were the US, Canada and Mexico.  Not hard to figure out the dynamics there.

There was a plan tabled wherein the Americans would foot the bill for a massive dam across the northern end of James Bay. That would raise the water level several meters and re-direct all the waters flowing into James Bay into the Great Lakes, raising their levels in turn and ultimately directing water into the Mississippi and thence into the American southwest. A grandiose plan but a frightening one.

Can you just imagine the mercury levels and the flooding...

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CTV news.

EDMONTON -- Alberta is changing how it calculates the payments oilsands mines make to ensure there's enough money to clean up the mess they leave behind.

The province says the decision is in reaction to low oil prices last year, which briefly reached negative values.

Lisa Fairweather of Alberta Environment says keeping the old program would have cost the industry billions of extra dollars, even though the environmental risk of the mines hasn't changed.

😂 " extra dollars"

She says today's move is temporary until a complete review of environmental security payments is held this summer.

Critics say the changes will reduce payments into a cleanup fund that the auditor general has said is already too low.

Under the changes, Alberta will no longer calculate payments based on a company's environmental liabilities and its assets.

Instead, the calculation will be based on a company's revenue.... 

 

lucky albertans. such an understanding and considerate governing party.

ctv news.

 

 

Edited by Mark F
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1 hour ago, Mark F said:

CTV news.

EDMONTON -- Alberta is changing how it calculates the payments oilsands mines make to ensure there's enough money to clean up the mess they leave behind.

The province says the decision is in reaction to low oil prices last year, which briefly reached negative values.

Lisa Fairweather of Alberta Environment says keeping the old program would have cost the industry billions of extra dollars, even though the environmental risk of the mines hasn't changed.

😂 " extra dollars"

She says today's move is temporary until a complete review of environmental security payments is held this summer. Critics say the changes will reduce payments into a cleanup fund that the auditor general has said is already too low.

Under the changes, Alberta will no longer calculate payments based on a company's environmental liabilities and its assets. Instead, the calculation will be based on a company's revenue....  

lucky albertans. such an understanding and considerate governing party.

ctv news.

 

 

And guess who is going to get stuck with the bar tab once the party is over?

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3 hours ago, Tracker said:

And guess who is going to get stuck with the bar tab once the party is over?

no doubt about that one.

good example of "Regulatory capture"

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"London (CNN Business)A Dutch court has ruled that Royal Dutch Shell must dramatically reduce its carbon emissions in a landmark climate decision that could have far reaching consequences for oil companies.

The company must slash its CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels, according to a judgment from a district court in The Hague on Wednesday. That includes emissions from its own operations and from the energy products it sells.

This is the first time that a court has ruled a company needs to reduce its emissionsin line with global climate goals, according to Friends of the Earth Netherlands, an environmental campaigning group that brought the case against Shell (RDSA)."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/business/shell-court-case-climate-change/index.html

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thought this was going to happen

 

"The European Union is considering a new tax on imports as it tries to fight climate change, and the U.S. is raising concerns about it.

At issue is what’s known as a border adjustment carbon tax.

The tax is designed to level the playing field for European companies by holding imports responsible for their greenhouse gas emissions the same way domestically produced products are"

 

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/eu-wants-carbon-tax-imports-would-it-be-effective-climate-solution

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/oxygen-climate-lakes-1.6059334

Quote

"The Earth is getting warmer. And as it does, the lakes are less capable of holding oxygen. And oxygen is needed for every living thing," said Peter Leavitt, a University of Regina biologist who co-authored the study. "There's less for fish to breathe. And that has a knock-on effect on pretty much everything in the lake."

The study, led by Stephen Jane, a PhD student at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, N.Y., looked at changes in oxygen levels from 393 temperate lakes between 1941 and 2017. They were mostly in the U.S. and Europe, but included a couple in New Zealand and three sets in Canada: 

  • Lakes near the Dorset Environmental Science Centre in Muskoka, Ont.
  • The IISD Experimental Lakes Area research station near Kenora, Ont.
  • The Qu'Appelle River system lakes in southern Saskatchewan.

The researchers found that from 1980 to 2017, oxygen levels fell by about five per cent near the surface and 19 per cent in deep waters, they reported in the journal Nature last week.

The decline in oxygen levels in lakes is 2.75 to 9.3 times higher than the decline in oxygen in the world's oceans, which has also raised concern among scientists about the health of aquatic life.

 

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"Canada will not approve new thermal coal mining projects or plans to expand existing mines because of the potential for environmental damage, Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Friday.

"The government considers that these projects are likely to cause unacceptable environmental effects within federal jurisdiction and are not aligned with Canada's domestic and international climate change commitments," he said."

 

Reuters

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Bloomberg Green:

 

 

"California endured a six-year drought that ended in 2017, one of the state’s longest and most severe dry spells. Experts warn of worse conditions in the state this summer. “We have never seen drought at the scale and the intensity that we see right now, and it is possible that this may be the baseline for the future,” Klein warns.

Swain terms this process the aridification of the West—a complete shift in the region’s climate. “It is hard to call it drought anymore because it is a permanent state of being,” he says. “Things are moving in one direction rather than going back and forth.”

 

looking like things are irreversible. still need action, but ...... waited too long.

 

baby boomers will not be loved by their descendents.

Edited by Mark F
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3 hours ago, Mark F said:

Bloomberg Green:

 

 

"California endured a six-year drought that ended in 2017, one of the state’s longest and most severe dry spells. Experts warn of worse conditions in the state this summer. “We have never seen drought at the scale and the intensity that we see right now, and it is possible that this may be the baseline for the future,” Klein warns.

Swain terms this process the aridification of the West—a complete shift in the region’s climate. “It is hard to call it drought anymore because it is a permanent state of being,” he says. “Things are moving in one direction rather than going back and forth.”

 

looking like things are irreversible. still need action, but ...... waited too long.  baby boomers will not be loved by their descendants.

This sort of thing and more extreme weather events has been predicted for 2-3 decades, and should be no surprise.  Moreover, Southern California, Phoenix, and parts of New Mexico, Colorado and Texas have become "Cadillac deserts"- artificially hydrated areas which steal water away from other areas, making them de facto deserts and reducing the Rio Grande (Big River) to a trickle. They have borrowed against their futures and defied nature, and now the bills are due.

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On 2021-05-07 at 10:58 AM, iHeart said:

wasn't sure which thread this belonged in

 

Your map and info is correct. I've been involved in farming all my life ( 63 years old ) and still am albeit in an alternative way.  I just had a discussion with my neighbor who is the same age and we both agree we have never seen it like this before. There was zero runoff this year due to a lack of snow.  I don't ever remember that. We have had 2 significant rains this year . The city of Morden which gets it's water from Lake Minniwasta is runnining out of water and desperately trying to pipe in Red river water. Its a really ugly situation.

And yet , the draining of sloughs and wet lands, tile draining , the removal of trees and bush , the removal of old shelter belts, continues at a frantic pace. If farmers can't get a permit to do this they just ignore the rules and do it anyway. The only time there are issues are if it directly effects a neighbor and causes friction. The fines for doing this illegally  are an absolute joke. Its hundreds of dollars where as the land cleared or drained can be worth 5 to 10,000 an acre.  The permits to do it legally are often affected by who you know or who you are. The extent ? I could easily come up with 20 examples of drained wetlands or bushes removed in the last couple of years within a 15 minute drive from my place on the escarpment. There is very little movement to stop this. There's not alot of push from those of us living out here to stop it. And frankly those in the city have no clue that's it's happening right on their doorstep or that it's even going on at all. Once a bush or wetland is gone, there is no evidence it was there. As far as tile draining it's really hard to see unless you know what to look for.

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5 hours ago, the watcher said:

the removal of old shelter belts, continues at a frantic pace. If

the land will be worthless without water. laura rance told me about this years ago. really sad.

 

5 hours ago, the watcher said:

And frankly those in the city have no clue that's it's happening right on their doorstep or that it's even going on at all.

till a few years ago I lived in rural mb, near anola. got to know a few farmers.

I recall recently no hay due to drought and small farmers taking their cattle to slaughter. 
of course price down.

city people didnt know a thing about it. not sure they would care if  they did. just the price at the store.

very sad stuff.

physically strongest person Ive ever met, was a farmer. I had a two horse trailer full of hay....small square bales, he wanted to make room for one last bale, one shove, he pushed the entire load forward ro make room by himself. holy crap.

good luck to you this summer.

hit 39 van island yesterday. record.

Edited by Mark F
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https://climateandhealthalliance.org/bushfires-report/

Quote

The Report

The risk of wildfires is projected to increase in most areas of the world as climate change intensifies, bringing more frequent heat waves of longer duration and changes in rainfall patterns that affect vegetation growth.

As a result of bigger, more frequent, and longer-lasting fires, larger populations, including urban populations far from the forests, are being exposed to harmful and prolonged levels of wildfire smoke. During the 2019 fires in the Amazon rainforest, GCHA noted that there was scant discussion about the health impacts of the smoke from the fires, and little publicly available data.

This report, developed in collaboration with the Climate and Health Alliance in Australia, the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment in Canada, and the WONCA Working Party for the Environment, whose chair is based in Brazil, looks at the health impacts of forest fire smoke, with case studies of major recent fires in each country and interviews with in-country researchers, experts, and medical professionals. A number of recommendations emerge for ways to better prepare for and respond to the health threat of wildfire smoke.

Of the case studies examined, recent fires in Canada and Australia were in part driven by climate change, while the fires in Brazil were set intentionally, as part of agriculturally driven land clearing, a process of deforestation that contributes to climate change. Cutting across these case studies and the recommendations that emerge, therefore, is the urgent need to mitigate climate change.

 

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