Ottawa RedBlacks @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers GDT

[Mark H.]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

I will say in the 4th quarter the Redblacks did step it up and Dustin Crum did make some quick decisions and good passes.   They definitely stepped it up and executed well during their last few drives.   

Dru Brown didn't pass for 400+ yards that a few people on here dreamed about,  he looked very average himself floating a few lame ducks that were off the mark.    

Dru Brown also injury prone, very obviously injury prone. Behind Kola, he might be 9 gamed already.

[Bigblue204]

8 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

Dru Brown also injury prone, very obviously injury prone. Behind Kola, he might be 9 gamed already.

Yeah it's took bad. He has the talent to be a very good CFL QB. Just can't stay healthy and it's looking like it's not just "bad luck".

[Goalie]

Dru Willy 

 

same situation. Exactly almost with Dru Brown. 

Edited 8 hours ago by Goalie

[wbbfan]

8 minutes ago, Goalie said:

Dru Willy 

 

same situation. Exactly almost with Dru Brown. 

Eh some similarities but not as much. 

 Willy, as much as anything, was shell-shocked and ruined by all the hits he took, not as injury-prone. Willy played 17 games here, then 7, then we traded him, and it was 18 total. That's 14, 15, and 16.

Dru brown has played in 17 last year and 7 this year. But I think he's been injured what, 4 times in that season and a half? 

 I think Dru is becoming Zach. 

[17to85]

Here's another LOL moment from the game... Sterns made a heck of a grab on his touchdown catch and it was a perfectly placed ball as much as anything.... but why the **** is our endzone jump ball guy 5'8? Guy's been a good receiver for us,  but man they're miscasting him as the guy you take those kinds of shots to the endzone with.

[ShyGuy]

1 hour ago, wbbfan said:

Eh some similarities but not as much. 

 Willy, as much as anything, was shell-shocked and ruined by all the hits he took, not as injury-prone. Willy played 17 games here, then 7, then we traded him, and it was 18 total. That's 14, 15, and 16.

Dru brown has played in 17 last year and 7 this year. But I think he's been injured what, 4 times in that season and a half? 

 I think Dru is becoming Zach. 

I think he only played in 15 last year. He picked up an ankle injury week 16 against Montreal and didn't play weeks 17 and 18.. Got a concussion Week 5 against the Bombers but played the next week. He had a foot injury against the Riders in week 10 and then missed week 11 before playing against the Lions week 12.

So in a season and a half as a starter hes:

Exited a game due to a concussion (Week 5 2024)
Exited a game due to a foot injury and missed a game (Week 10 and Week 11 2024)
Exited a game due to an ankle injury and missed 2 extra games (Week 16 through Week 19 2024)
Got injured at the end of a game and then missed 3 games with a hip injury (Week 1 through Week 4 2025)
Exited a game due to a concussion (Week 7 2025)
Exited a game due to a knee injury (Week 11 2025)

So out of 28 possible games, by my count he's only played 17 complete games.

Edited 6 hours ago by ShyGuy

[wbbfan]

7 minutes ago, ShyGuy said:

I think he only played in 15 last year. He picked up an ankle injury week 16 against Montreal and didn't play weeks 17 and 18.. Got a concussion Week 5 against the Bombers but played the next week. He had a foot injury against the Riders in week 10 and then missed week 11 before playing against the Lions week 12.

So in a season and a half as a starter hes:

Exited a game due to a concussion (Week 5 2024)
Exited a game due to a foot injury and missed a game (Week 10 and Week 11 2024)
Exited a game due to an ankle injury and missed 2 extra games (Week 16 through Week 19 2024)
Got injured at the end of a game and then missed 3 games with a hip injury (Week 1 through Week 4 2025)
Exited a game due to a concussion (Week 7 2025)
Exited a game due to a knee injury (Week 11 2025)

So out of 28 possible games, by my count he's only played 17 complete games.

I went off his game log from cfl.ca, but its possible. he might have been rostered as a back up even though he was out injured. 

Yikes that is a lot of injuries piling up. Ott is gonna be the death of his career at this rate. 

[blue85gold]

28 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

Here's another LOL moment from the game... Sterns made a heck of a grab on his touchdown catch and it was a perfectly placed ball as much as anything.... but why the **** is our endzone jump ball guy 5'8? Guy's been a good receiver for us,  but man they're miscasting him as the guy you take those kinds of shots to the endzone with.

That play isn't run as a jump ball. Pickett just made a good recovery and got in there late. 

[GCn20]

10 hours ago, Brandon said:

I don't think the Blue were as bad as some people on here were making them out to be... but yikes that last 2 minutes was the worst coaching decisions I've ever seen since Tim Burke had taken a knee and gave up that one game.   This game should of been iced on these 3 plays...

1 -  Kramdi going for the big hit instead of wrapping up the running back on the 2nd and 15 play in the 4th quarter.   Absolutely no need to lay in a big hit when he could of wrapped him and at least slowed him down which easily would of stopped them well short of the first down.

2 -  2nd and 3 and that package with Strev was garbage.  Why not just take a knee at that point it was painfully obvious on what the play was.   Why are they not running short yardage with Wilson who is much better then Strev?  If you have Strev in why not RPO with Brady?  What a terrible call.   Hogan had called a real good first quarter where he was getting Zach out of the pocket and on the run which was working well.  I thought the 3rd quarter and 4th the plays were ok but the o-line was shakey as hell which resulted in those 2 and outs.   This 2nd and 3 play was absolute garbage.  Suitor was even calling it out.  

3 -  The field goal.   As a fan I demand answers on who called that if it was O'Shea or Hogan.   Either way O'Shea should be blistered by the media and I hope Miller or someone tears a strip on him for making that call.   Getting cute with less then a minute left playing against Ottawa with a back up QB.  An absolute rookie decision and the worst we've made in such a long time that I can't even remember such a bad call.   TSN panning to the audience with the "WTF" look of disbelief.   I am SHOCKED that beer cans were not tossed at O'Shea after that.

Bonus bone headed play - Randolph taking a penalty for rolling on Mauldin.  I thought this club was known for being disciplined?

Easy on Randolph, that is something that happens on literally every play and is rarely called.

[GCn20]

13 hours ago, JuranBoldenRules said:

I don't mind that call or that throw to Demski.  Play is right there to be made.  Ottawa was playing a cover 2 cut worried about protecting FG range so the deep ball was the right read, and it was there.  Kind of an incredible play by 3rd string safety (starter and backup for Ottawa both went out to injury in this game)

Yea..the play was there. I don't mind it either. Just a real nice close by OTT safety. If you don't take that shot with that read then fold the tent and never toss the long ball again.

[Booch]

43 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

Easy on Randolph, that is something that happens on literally every play and is rarely called.

yeah I had no issues with that...there is way worse stuff never called and that was a pretty chincy penalty....been worse if he got up after pancaking him with a shove to the head into the turf

I love how he plays with some edge...He gets in dline guys heads and if it takes them off thier game cause they pissed about his aggression....perfect....Ty Jones would do similar stuff cause if they were concerned about and pissed at him ....it took them out of their game

Edited 5 hours ago by Booch

[JohnnyAbonny]

1 minute ago, Booch said:

yeah I had no issues with that...there is way worse stuff never called and that was a pretty chincy penalty....been worse if he got up after pancaking him with a shove to the head into the turf

I **** how he plays with some edge...He gets in dline guys heads and if it takes them off thier game cause they pissed about his aggression....perfect....Ty Jones would do similar stuff cause if they were concerned about and pissed at him ....it took them out of their game

Juran Bolden used to play with an edge that way too. If he took a roughing penalty in the first quarter it was kind of a good omen. 

[Mark H.]

I'd say most of the 2019 team played with an edge. With Darvin Adams leading the charge.

[Bomberguy]

12 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

I'd say most of the 2019 team played with an edge. With Darvin Adams leading the charge.

I miss Darvin Adam’s. come to think of it, I miss 2019 😄

[BomberBall.]

3 hours ago, wbbfan said:

Eh some similarities but not as much. 

 Willy, as much as anything, was shell-shocked and ruined by all the hits he took, not as injury-prone. Willy played 17 games here, then 7, then we traded him, and it was 18 total. That's 14, 15, and 16.

Dru brown has played in 17 last year and 7 this year. But I think he's been injured what, 4 times in that season and a half? 

 I think Dru is becoming Zach. 

Willy also cared way too much about what people were saying about him…. Always reading articles and getting in his own head.  That and getting beat up really torpedoed his career.

[JohnnyAbonny]

12 minutes ago, BomberBall. said:

Willy also cared way too much about what people were saying about him…. Always reading articles and getting in his own head.  That and getting beat up really torpedoed his career.

That 2015 OL was pretty awful. Willy got the living **** beat out of him. He was rocked helmet to helmet in the 2015 home opener (in the first quarter iirc) and was never the same player afterward.  

[DTonOB]

Just pulled out some numbers about the long field goal decision:

Kicking:

57-yard field goals had been hit 61% of the time (since 2005)

Missed FGs 57 yards and farther had been returned for TD 4% of the time (1/25)

Punting:

Sheahan's punts from the plus 50: average field position after was the 15 (6 punts)

Drives down 4-8 points, 0:40-1:15 remaining starting from the 25 and in: 4 TDs in 18 drives (including the Crumback in 2023)

Going for it:

3rd and 1 converted 85% of time

3rd and 2 converted 66% of time

(It looked like was 1.5 yards on 3rd down. I really don't think it was a full 2)

[johnzo]

@DTonOB what data sources do you use for your research?  Does the CFL have a stats database for media?

 

 

[BomberBall.]

I was more frustrated with the call on 2nd and 3 than I was with the FG attempt.  Although, I definitely would’ve punted, that 2nd down call was really bad.

[ShyGuy]

1 hour ago, DTonOB said:

Just pulled out some numbers about the long field goal decision:

Kicking:

57-yard field goals had been hit 61% of the time (since 2005)

Missed FGs 57 yards and farther had been returned for TD 4% of the time (1/25)

Punting:

Sheahan's punts from the plus 50: average field position after was the 15 (6 punts)

Drives down 4-8 points, 0:40-1:15 remaining starting from the 25 and in: 4 TDs in 18 drives (including the Crumback in 2023)

Going for it:

3rd and 1 converted 85% of time

3rd and 2 converted 66% of time

(It looked like was 1.5 yards on 3rd down. I really don't think it was a full 2)

Is this math mathing?

2025 Guide Book has 15 Field Goals made past 57 yards up to 2025, and then 16 at 57. So 31 made up to this year. I know Maltos and Castillo are the only ones to hit from that this year, but if there are 25 missed and you hit at 61% that says you should have 39 makes.... that is for all of CFL History... if you are talking JUST SINCE 2005... I only count 5 > 57 in the guide book, and then in the 57 bucket most of those guys haven't played since 2005 anyways.

It would be interesting to see the context of some of those kicks as well, because I feel as though when you are kicking a 57 yard field goal, the other team might not be inclined to try to house it.... the example everyone here is probably familiar with is the 2016 West Semi Final when O'Shea tried to get Medlock to hit a 61 yarder, but he came up short and the Lions just downed it to run down the clock.

So small sample bias aside... you need to apply a similar criteria to the TD drive one you used, so its what percent of field goals from 57+ yards are returned for a TD, with >30 seconds (we'll use this as the time limit the victory formation could be used for) on the clock and the other team tied or down any number of points

Edited 1 hour ago by ShyGuy

[DTonOB]

2 hours ago, johnzo said:

@DTonOB what data sources do you use for your research?  Does the CFL have a stats database for media?

 

 

It's all from data I've collected over the years for this kind of situation. The CFL does have a database but I'm not sure what's in the current version (Genius Sports).

Edited 57 minutes ago by DTonOB

[DTonOB]

1 hour ago, ShyGuy said:

Is this math mathing?

2025 Guide Book has 15 Field Goals made past 57 yards up to 2025, and then 16 at 57. So 31 made up to this year. I know Maltos and Castillo are the only ones to hit from that this year, but if there are 25 missed and you hit at 61% that says you should have 39 makes.... that is for all of CFL History... if you are talking JUST SINCE 2005... I only count 5 > 57 in the guide book, and then in the 57 bucket most of those guys haven't played since 2005 anyways.

Here's what I have for makes from 2005 to Week 10 of this year, 4 singles and 21 misses for no points:

Year	Game	Kicker	Distance
2010	45	Prefontaine	57
2011	47	Medlock	57
2015	67	Medlock	57
2016	11	Medlock	58
2016	68	Maher	58
2017	41	Medlock	57
2017	54	Castillo	57
2018	94	Medlock	57
2019	14	Lauther	57
2022	24	Lauther	57
2022	54	Small	58
2022	80	Small	57
2024	24	Castillo	60
2024	31	Castillo	57
2024	42	Castillo	60
2024	61	Paredes	57
2025	34	Castillo	58
2025	37	Maltos	58
2025	48	Castillo	63

[johnzo]

27 minutes ago, DTonOB said:

It's all from data I've collected over the years for this kind of situation.

Holy cow, that sounds like an incredible amount of work.  Super curious about the tools and data sources you use -- do you have your own play-by-play database?

Edited 28 minutes ago by johnzo