https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

3 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

One year of the TSN deal alone split evenly between the teams pays for more then 95% of the salary cap. 

Great so then teams will only lose the salaries of coaches and support staff and office staff and facilities fees....

 

9 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

Great so then teams will only lose the salaries of coaches and support staff and office staff and facilities fees....

 

Travel expenses, hotel accommodations, flights, meals and per diems, training camp expenses, equipment costs, stadium upkeep and game day power usage costs.,,,,,,,

40 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

Great so then teams will only lose the salaries of coaches and support staff and office staff and facilities fees....

 

 

29 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Travel expenses, hotel accommodations, flights, meals and per diems, training camp expenses, equipment costs, stadium upkeep and game day power usage costs.,,,,,,,

1 revenue stream takes care of the huge majority of operating costs. Did you know its not the only one? 😆

I don't understand why the CFL can't find investors or major sponsors to put money into the league to get them back on the field. I mean, if the Rock can put up $20 million of his own money for a sketchy league like the XFL then why can't someone or some companies invest in our league?

I'm willing to give them time yet to unveil some kinda plan. Edmonton's President said they've done financial models for as low as 10% capacity, which might even be possible this summer in an outdoor facility that holds at least twice that (in Montreal) and up to 5x that (in Edmonton). And maybe they have some kinda financial model for no fans for a few games...?? I know Ambrosie hasn't earned the benefit of doubt, but as a noted Positron who desperately wants to see CFL ball this year, I'm staying upbeat and hoping for good news on this front...

1 minute ago, Noeller said:

I'm willing to give them time yet to unveil some kinda plan. Edmonton's President said they've done financial models for as low as 10% capacity, which might even be possible this summer in an outdoor facility that holds at least twice that (in Montreal) and up to 5x that (in Edmonton). And maybe they have some kinda financial model for no fans for a few games...?? I know Ambrosie hasn't earned the benefit of doubt, but as a noted Positron who desperately wants to see CFL ball this year, I'm staying upbeat and hoping for good news on this front...

I won't finish the sentence as I'll be spitting mad if it occurs... If Ambrosie cancels the season...

Just now, SpeedFlex27 said:

I won't finish the sentence as I'll be spitting mad if it occurs... If Ambrosie cancels the season...

I'll finish your sentence: ...the league is likely dead. 

Which is why there's no way the season gets canceled. Somehow, some way......they'll find a way to play this year. At some point.

3 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I'll finish your sentence: ...the league is likely dead. 

Which is why there's no way the season gets canceled. Somehow, some way......they'll find a way to play this year. At some point.

Ambrosie just doesn't give me any confidence that things will be fine going forward. If they do it will be in spite of him & not because of him. 

I'm a noted negatron who desperately wants to see the CFL this year.

1 hour ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I don't understand why the CFL can't find investors or major sponsors to put money into the league to get them back on the field. I mean, if the Rock can put up $20 million of his own money for a sketchy league like the XFL then why can't someone or some companies invest in our league?

It's probably because current league owners wouldn't want to part with their stake in the respective teams. The $20 million the Rock sunk into the XFL may have been for a significant stake in ownership. Higher risk? Certainly, but if the XFL could've gone toe-to-toe with the NFL, even modestly for 2 - 3 years profitably, it'd have been a much bigger payout than anything the CFL could've offered.

17 minutes ago, Eternal optimist said:

It's probably because current league owners wouldn't want to part with their stake in the respective teams. The $20 million the Rock sunk into the XFL may have been for a significant stake in ownership. Higher risk? Certainly, but if the XFL could've gone toe-to-toe with the NFL, even modestly for 2 - 3 years profitably, it'd have been a much bigger payout than anything the CFL could've offered.

Devils Advocate: I wonder if the CFL cash strapped as it is would try to convince the XFL to merge & form one fall league with rules from both leagues coming into play. Would you rather that happen than the CFL folding? 

6 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Devils Advocate: I wonder if the CFL cash strapped as it is would try to convince the XFL to merge & form one fall league with rules from both leagues coming into play. Would you rather that happen than the CFL folding? 

Personally... no. Whatever aberration would result from that would not be Canadian football as we know it, there would be a massive cutting of Canadian talent, as the rule requiring Canadian players would be one of the first things to be nixed. On top of all that, you're making the league's current dilemma (COVID-19) even worse, merging with the XFL would require, at a minimum, cross-border travel, which as the NHL Dubois scenario has shown, can be problematic at best. If a higher-profile league like the NHL couldn't get an exemption for one player, why on Earth would they grant similar exemptions to entire teams?

Add to that the risks of a startup, uncertainty surrounding fledgling new partners, and... for whatever reason... joining with XFL owners that have run through any goodwill with players based upon how they closed up shop previously (players left to pay their own way home, players left unpaid, and players abandoned by the league in unknown cities) and I don't really see much upside to that scenario.

19 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Devils Advocate: I wonder if the CFL cash strapped as it is would try to convince the XFL to merge & form one fall league with rules from both leagues coming into play. Would you rather that happen than the CFL folding? 

I can't imagine it ever getting to this, but what an awful Sophie's Choice. I want NO PART of merging with another league. 

Interesting observations. Yeah, the Canadian Rule would be gone but I think more than a few could make the rosters of any team. The field would be smaller as American stadiums can't fit a Canadian field. But some of the CFL rules could be incorporated. That is, if a new league is ever formed. With Covid, I think anything is possible especially the longer it lasts. 

Edited February 6, 20215 yr by SpeedFlex27

14 hours ago, wbbfan said:

 

1 revenue stream takes care of the huge majority of operating costs. Did you know its not the only one? 😆

If this were a fact, then we wouldn’t have teams going broke or reliant on owners. 

On 2021-02-05 at 5:10 PM, wbbfan said:

 

1 revenue stream takes care of the huge majority of operating costs. Did you know its not the only one? 😆

Bombers’ operating costs for 2019 was $32 million, the player salaries were only $5.35 million of that.

Ticket sales accounted for 32% of the club’s total revenue of $35 million. Game day, concessions and merch sales accounted for another 24%.

And although the privately owned clubs’ books are not public, the publicly owned Bombers, Riders, and Edmonton Whatevers are considered probably the 3 healthiest clubs in the CFL, and only the Bombers turned a profit in 2019. 

Suggesting that the TSN can cover the bulk of the salary cap and therefore the league is financially solvent because of that one fact is too simplistic and fundamentally incorrect. 

Edited to remove some of my snark. Was not needed or called for. 

Edited February 7, 20215 yr by TrueBlue4ever

10 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Bombers’ operating costs for 2019 was $32 million, the player salaries were only $5.35 million of that. Did you know that?

Ticket sales accounted for 32% of the club’s total revenue of $35 million. Game day, concessions and mercy sales accounted for another 24%. Did you know that?

And although the privately owned clubs’ books are not public, the publicly owned Bombers, Riders, and Edmonton Whatevers are considered probably the 3 healthiest clubs in the CFL, and only the Bombers turned a profit in 2019. Did you know that?

Suggesting that the TSN can cover the bulk of the salary cap and therefore the league is financially solvent because of that one fact is hopelessly simplistic logic and fundamentally incorrect. 

Thank you for showing the math. The idea that player costs are the bulk of the teams cost is just ignorance.

33 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

Thank you for showing the math. The idea that player costs are the bulk of the teams cost is just ignorance.

I think this stems a lot from the publicity surrounding contracts. You'll hear about star players making millions of dollars, but unfortunately, articles about cost of goods sold and direct costs are not catchy headlines...

there was a quote on Twitter just the other day from (I believe) Jamie Nye in Sask, who said that TSN's money covers the players payroll for each team. So that part, apparently, is true...

1 minute ago, Noeller said:

there was a quote on Twitter just the other day from (I believe) Jamie Nye in Sask, who said that TSN's money covers the players payroll for each team. So that part, apparently, is true...

There's a sliver of truth in pretty much everything that gets posted here.  It becomes problematic when a sliver is posted as the whole story.  

7 minutes ago, Noeller said:

there was a quote on Twitter just the other day from (I believe) Jamie Nye in Sask, who said that TSN's money covers the players payroll for each team. So that part, apparently, is true...

Oh I don't doubt it's true, but there are a lot more expenses for a cfl team than just paying players.

Removed post as it is apparently not Bruce Campbell in the video.

Edited April 5, 20214 yr by bigg jay

13 minutes ago, bigg jay said:

Former Riders o-lineman Bruce Campbell looking like he'd still fit in, in Regina.

 

No matter how big and bad you might think you are, there is always someone who will make you look like a fool, enjoy the protein shakes you idiot.

The video doesn't show what started the confrontation. 

1 hour ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

The video doesn't show what started the confrontation. 

Just what finished it.