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Eternal optimist

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  1. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from blue_gold_84 in The Most Important Passing Stat - 2nd Down Yardage?   
    The QB efficiency rating is essentially the 'gold standard'  for QB effectiveness because it is the statistic that has the highest positive correlation with the number of wins said quarterback produces. To put it in a statistical nutshell, the correlation of variable x to variable y indicates its ability to predict the outcome (output) of a given variable (y - in this case, # of wins by a QB), based on a known quantity (input) of a known variable (x - which in this case, would be the QB efficiency rating). Correlation values range from -1 (a perfect negative 1:1 correlation) to +1 (a perfect positive 1:1 correlation) - a quick google search shows that the general consensus is that the correlation between QB rating and # of wins is about 0.50ish. To date, no other statistic has a higher correlation with the number of wins a QB has.
    This means that, generally speaking, if you were to look at all QB efficiency ratings since the dawn of football to present day, the QB efficiency rating is the best statistic to determine the number of wins a quarterback will get. The higher their QB efficiency rating, the more wins they are likely to have. Analysis has also been done on other statistics such as total passing yards, completion % etc.
    In terms of testing, you could hypothetically use anything as your x for testing your null hypothesis. For example, you could do analysis testing the correlation between the temperature the day of the game and # of wins (hint: you probably wouldn't see any correlation that is meaningful). The testing done to date shows that the number of wins a QB has is correlated most consistently with the QB efficiency rating.
  2. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to Floyd in CFL Insider Lawless Leaving Canada   
    Does this count as our expansion draft requirement?
  3. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to Mike in Rumor is Richie Hall may not be able to coach this year   
    Looked into it after reading it on Riderfans this morning and there is a real concern that Richie might not be able to resume coaching this season due to some health issues. Not entirely sure what it is and don't really feel like we're in a position to know until he's ready for us to, but it sounds serious enough that it could prevent him from coaching.
    Let's keep our fingers crossed for a speedy recovery from whatever it is that is affecting Coach Hall. This is not good news, but for so many reasons other than football.
  4. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to GCn20 in Hard Analysis: Is this THE year?   
    Beat the East and you are a playoff team....beat the West and you are a contender.
  5. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to Floyd in CFL Draft   
    Yeah I love the late Marouf pick too... lets google him
  6. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from MOBomberFan in The Most Important Passing Stat - 2nd Down Yardage?   
    The QB efficiency rating is essentially the 'gold standard'  for QB effectiveness because it is the statistic that has the highest positive correlation with the number of wins said quarterback produces. To put it in a statistical nutshell, the correlation of variable x to variable y indicates its ability to predict the outcome (output) of a given variable (y - in this case, # of wins by a QB), based on a known quantity (input) of a known variable (x - which in this case, would be the QB efficiency rating). Correlation values range from -1 (a perfect negative 1:1 correlation) to +1 (a perfect positive 1:1 correlation) - a quick google search shows that the general consensus is that the correlation between QB rating and # of wins is about 0.50ish. To date, no other statistic has a higher correlation with the number of wins a QB has.
    This means that, generally speaking, if you were to look at all QB efficiency ratings since the dawn of football to present day, the QB efficiency rating is the best statistic to determine the number of wins a quarterback will get. The higher their QB efficiency rating, the more wins they are likely to have. Analysis has also been done on other statistics such as total passing yards, completion % etc.
    In terms of testing, you could hypothetically use anything as your x for testing your null hypothesis. For example, you could do analysis testing the correlation between the temperature the day of the game and # of wins (hint: you probably wouldn't see any correlation that is meaningful). The testing done to date shows that the number of wins a QB has is correlated most consistently with the QB efficiency rating.
  7. Like
  8. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to IC Khari in The Most Important Passing Stat - 2nd Down Yardage?   
    I would say chimp avatars are pretty important as well.
  9. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to Mike in New for 2017 - Family Pricing   
    Guess I better make some babies.
  10. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to mbrg in Bombers Release Financial Report Ahead Of Fan Open House   
    Please don't do my taxes.
  11. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to WBBFanWest in Chris Jones Signs Vince Young: Brilliant or Desperate?   
    I suspect it's because if there is more than one bet, then there will be counting.  Counting is hard.
  12. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from Tracker in Chris Jones Signs Vince Young: Brilliant or Desperate?   
    I think the best way to describe is it brilliantly desperate. The signing itself is desperate, the entertainment value is brilliant.
  13. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from Adrenaline_x in Chris Jones Signs Vince Young: Brilliant or Desperate?   
    I think the best way to describe is it brilliantly desperate. The signing itself is desperate, the entertainment value is brilliant.
  14. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from wbbfan in Around The League Off Season Discussion   
    How do you guys not see the genius that is Jonesy? Obviously he didn't sign Young as a plug-and-play QB upgrade... Young is obviously their import offensive lineman that can also run the fumblerooski...and throw in a pinch.
     
  15. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from Al Bundy in Around The League Off Season Discussion   
    Y'know... the article about Vince Young just states he has signed with the Riders.... doesn't exactly specify what position he signed for. He could be filling a huge void other than QB for their franchise...
    Like head coach?
  16. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to johnzo in Around The League Off Season Discussion   
    And yet another chapter in the saga of Kevin "No Respect" Glenn. 
    Signs a place where he'd be the undisputed starter, team goes out and gets high-profile NFL retread.
  17. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to Goalie in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    You could just not look at his junk also tho 
  18. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from Adrenaline_x in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    If nothing else... I'd be okay with entertaining the idea of Dressler returning kicks - didn't he used to do that all the time when he was with the Riders?
  19. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from Adrenaline_x in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    The Miles signing means more homegrown Canadian talent. He won't make any big splashes in terms of a typical "big" free agency signing...but every team needs a core of dependable, hard-nosed players willing to run through walls for their team. I really like the methodology we're currently using for upgrading our roster this year.
  20. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from kelownabomberfan in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    The Miles signing means more homegrown Canadian talent. He won't make any big splashes in terms of a typical "big" free agency signing...but every team needs a core of dependable, hard-nosed players willing to run through walls for their team. I really like the methodology we're currently using for upgrading our roster this year.
  21. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from Tracker in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    The Miles signing means more homegrown Canadian talent. He won't make any big splashes in terms of a typical "big" free agency signing...but every team needs a core of dependable, hard-nosed players willing to run through walls for their team. I really like the methodology we're currently using for upgrading our roster this year.
  22. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from MOBomberFan in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    I find statistics like this (especially for special teams) can be misleading sometimes... is Miller actually that good of a player, or did Edmonton just punt/kickoff a lot in 2016 (thus giving him more opportunities to make tackles)?
    A good example where special teams statistics can be misleading was in 1998 when Eric Blount set the CFL record (at the time) for most kickoff return yards in a single season. The Bombers went 3-15 that year, the only reason Blount even set the record was because he had so many attempts at kickoff returns since the Bombers surrendered so many touchdowns to opponents.
    So, just for fun, I summarized the punting attempts, per team, for the 2016 regular season from CFL's website. I wanted to add in kickoff attempts, but couldn't find the #s anywhere (I also didn't look particularly hard either). Anyways, here's the results:
    Team - # of punting attempts
    SSK (Way to go, idiots) - 134
    TOR - 113
    MTL - 113
    WPG - 112
    OTT - 110
    EDM - 103
    CGY - 100
    HAM - 99
    BC - 97
    Looks like Edmonton didn't punt an excessive amount in 2016 - looks like Miller is just a tough, run-through-walls type player that will be a good addition to the team. Also, he's Canadian.
  23. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to Tracker in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    And how many women have told you that?
  24. Like
    Eternal optimist reacted to do or die in Bombers Off-Season Transactions   
    Well, the Bombers could just sign me....and make everybody happy.
  25. Like
    Eternal optimist got a reaction from ALuCsRED in Mystery Miller   
    I don't know about anyone else, but as a season ticket holder I've always been impressed by the fact Wade takes time out of his schedule to meet and greet with anyone who picks up their season tickets on the first day (just basically greets people picking up their tickets). I think the biggest improvement from him coming in is the fact that he's reestablished the idea that season ticket holders are a cornerstone of the Bombers local fan support, revenue and pride and deserve to be treated as such.
    He has also done a really good job with some of the bad hands dealt to him by the prior regime. Lastly I think he has a huge desire to help this organization win and be a part of Winnipeg that the city can be proud of... that goes a long way.
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