https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

On 2021-01-19 at 4:28 PM, blue_gold_84 said:

Nah, just one. Nichols is still living seemingly rent free in your head despite the fact he's not a part of the WFC anymore. You were the one who chose to bring him up in this thread, for no apparent reason other than to deflect from the Riders' going all in on Fajardo. Hell, it would've made more sense to bring up Collaros considering the Bombers "went all in" on him despite his injury history.

With Nichols, the Bombers didn't "kick him to the curb," unless you think letting a free agent walk qualifies as such. In which case that would also apply to Nevis and Roh who were not re-signed. But that's total nonsense. The Bombers had to choose between him or Collaros and they chose the latter. Whether or not it was the correct decision remains to be seen. It isn't like Collaros is the model of QB health, either.

In four games played, Collaros didn't outperform Nichols. The former averaged 213 passing yards, 69.1 comp. %, and 1 TD per game in 2019. He was brought in to solidify the QB position because Streveler alone wasn't getting the job done through the air. Competent QBing is all the team needed on its championship run and that's what Collaros provided.

What's to be gained by posting such bullshit revisionist history and derailing this thread with such useless comments?

I'm not the biggest Nichols lover but agreed. Move on. 

9 hours ago, rebusrankin said:

2019-Fajardo 4302 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 8 Int

2017-Nichols 4472 passing ayrds, 28 TD passes, 8 Int

Just saying

Lol 2017.....  once again the facts.....   IN PRESENT DAY who is making 500 k and who is in a fight to even get a starting job.  

 

On 2021-01-20 at 1:13 PM, 17to85 said:

One season.... and it wasn't even a terribly impressive season at that..  

Yes but I'm judging them in current day and not over a whole career.  I agree that Fajardo more then likely will not eclipse Nichols when Matt was in his prime.  But in present day,  he sadly is a better player.    

At 500 k,  no way I don't think he is worth that and I hope the Riders burn their salary dollars up front then for what they should of done in giving him a performance based contract.  

RK	DATE	NAME	TEAM	GP	COMP	ATT	%	YARDS	TD	INT	EFFIC	INT %	AVG
1	2019	FAJARDO, Cody	SSK	17	338	473	71.5	4302	18	8	105.2	1.7	9.1
10	2019	NICHOLS, Matt	WPG	9	171	240	71.3	1936	15	5	107.2	2.1	8.1

 

Not like there is much difference in 2019, except the number of games played. One player is vilified and the other is heralded. One is "worth" $500k per year and the other needs to take a pay cut. 

The 2017 to 2019 comparison is cherry picking Nichols best year to Faj-JJ's 4th year in the league, first year as a starter. I don't think Faj-JJ is worth anywhere near $500K, but he's a young starter on his way up, not a beat up old QB who can't stay healthy. Lets see how he does next year before we call him a one or two trick pony.

With the way our defense showed up in the Grey Cup, Nichols wins that game for us.

That being said, I don't think Nichols would have won the game in Saskatchewan. Collaros made timely plays under pressure. Buried in our endzone and hitting Adams 35 yards down field on the sideline just isn't a throw I think Matt Nichols ever completes. 

Edited January 22, 20215 yr by Dr Zaius

I'm curious what changes in our offense this year? How does Buck change what was done by Lapo? Does he throw more? Does he keep the misdirection, trick plays in?

He can't go to Strev to change things up. 

some interesting info here re: a 2021 CFL season, via the Esks...

 

1 hour ago, JCon said:

I'm curious what changes in our offense this year? How does Buck change what was done by Lapo? Does he throw more? Does he keep the misdirection, trick plays in?

He can't go to Strev to change things up. 

I think it will be largely the same kinds of things. I think the real difference will be the game management aspect of it. Lapos biggest flaw was that he didn't have a good sense of the flow of the game and when to go for it and when to dial it back. Pierce I expect to have a better connection to things like that being a former quarterback.

1 hour ago, Noeller said:

some interesting info here re: a 2021 CFL season, via the Esks...

 

further to this, the league sent this out today: 

 

A LETTER FROM RANDY AMBROSIE
 

To the CFL Family:

We just wanted to check in and let you know how we’re doing. But most of all, we want you to know we’re thinking about you and wondering how you’re doing.

There’s no getting around it: this can feel like a dark time. Some of us are in “lock down”, most of us feel cooped up. It’s easy to feel down or get worked up.

But here’s the thing: I strongly believe 2021 is the year we transition back to something that feels normal. I’m feeling positive. And we at the CFL are optimistic about the year ahead.

We’re all human. We can all feel our mood shift a bit with each new headline. But here’s our bottom line: we plan to play CFL football this year, and lots of it. We just need to hunker down and get through this Winter first.

As we’ve said for months, you can help by following the guidelines in your area. I talk to government and health officials often; they’re hopeful, too, but they want us to remind you that we need to pull together.

Here at the CFL, we’re watching closely the pace of the virus, and the progress of the vaccination efforts. And they will ultimately affect our ability to get our great players back on the field – and our wonderful fans back in the stands. We’re in constant communication with medical experts. We’re working to be ready when public health officials give us the green light.

But we are determined to play.

We are also working hard with the CFLPA – the players, our partners in this great league.  We are committed to ensuring that we build our plans for 2021, for the future in collaboration with the Players’ Association and their members.

We love and miss our game. We love and miss our players, our fans, our partners. And we love and miss showcasing the CFL.

We know the CFL is a significant part of Canadian life.

It’s more than just another sport, or another product. It’s ours, part of our country’s DNA. It has always stood for community. No group of athletes do more to help sick kids or bullied ones, or to teach young boys that respect for women is a requisite for real manhood, or to help stock our food banks. Our clubs’ community work may be more visible in our smaller markets, but it’s significant everywhere we play – and every place that we visit.

It's also true that the CFL brings Canadians together in a powerful and unique way. It encourages us to look to the west or the east, instead of always looking south. It makes for intense, but friendly rivalries that cross city and provincial boundaries. Its’ power to unite is most obvious at Grey Cup, when millions of Canadians take time out to watch our biggest game, enjoy at halftime the country’s largest show. Thousands more, from every corner of the country, gather in person, to hoist a beer, embrace an old friend, and celebrate our game and our country, and what they mean to one another. And we all feel pride by the day’s national symbols: the Canadian military’s flyover before the game, the Mounties delivering the Grey Cup trophy as it ends, and the Cup itself, a monument to Canadian resilience and resolve.

Canada needs the CFL, perhaps now more than ever. And we need all of you in the CFL family: our dedicated fans, tremendous players, loyal partners, dedicated staff and selfless volunteers.

So, please, hang in there. Let’s be clear eyed about where things are today. Please be careful to protect yourselves, your family, your community. But we ask you to do something else, too: please look forward, to when we’re back on the field, back at the stadium, and together again at Grey Cup.

Some positivity and optimism will help us get there sooner and stronger.

The next time we rise for the anthem before a CFL game, or on Grey Cup Sunday, and we sing about the True North Strong and Free, we’ll do so knowing we are finally freeing ourselves from this terrible virus, and we were strong enough to get through the tough times. And how great will that be?

I’ve always believed in that old saying, that it is always darkest before the dawn. Please know the light is coming, for Canada, the CFL and the entire CFL Family.
 


Randy Ambrosie, 
CFL Commissioner

So still no plans without fans. Great leadership there randy. 

I think come summer time, they'll get the go ahead for at least 10% capacity (I've been told from an event organizer in Manitoba, that MB Health told them they'd have 10-15% if their outdoor event was happening "tomorrow", kinda thing) but I'm curious about getting players across the border and through the mandated quarantine periods and then on the field to practice. All of that stuff. 

3 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I think come summer time, they'll get the go ahead for at least 10% capacity (I've been told from an event organizer in Manitoba, that MB Health told them they'd have 10-15% if their outdoor event was happening "tomorrow", kinda thing) but I'm curious about getting players across the border and through the mandated quarantine periods and then on the field to practice. All of that stuff. 

No biggie on flying in. They just need a test before they fly, and, by then, most will have the vaccine. 

11 minutes ago, JCon said:

No biggie on flying in. They just need a test before they fly, and, by then, most will have the vaccine. 

Definitely, a lot of the logistical things are more straightforward compared to last year... so if they've modeled Profit/Loss for minimum 10% capacity and are okay with that..........?? Fingers crossed....man, I need this.

1 hour ago, 17to85 said:

So still no plans without fans. Great leadership there randy. 

Did you expect him to have a detailed plan in a letter to fans? GTFOH

23 minutes ago, Bigblue204 said:

Did you expect him to have a detailed plan in a letter to fans? GTFOH

No I don’t expect a detailed plan in a letter to the fans, but I also expect more than "we're just waiting for the government to tell us when we can play "

 

Guys, positivity and optimism, please...

Sadly.... insert joke about Toronto still not being able to fill 10 - 15% of their stadium regardless of COVID =\  

 

1 hour ago, 17to85 said:

No I don’t expect a detailed plan in a letter to the fans, but I also expect more than "we're just waiting for the government to tell us when we can play "

 

??? why? It's January. Any and all plans they make/have right now are going to change come February, and then March and so on and so on.

59 minutes ago, Bigblue204 said:

??? why? It's January. Any and all plans they make/have right now are going to change come February, and then March and so on and so on.

It's passive language, when coupled with their failures last year show me they haven't learned any lessons.

7 hours ago, MOBomberFan said:

Guys, positivity and optimism, please...

He didn't mention CFL 2.0 or the Schooners even once! Really feel COVID helped the CFL dodge a bullet on the latter there. Seriously though, even if the letter is fluff and pomp, the fact it's even being sent out is a good sign.

12 hours ago, Noeller said:

I think come summer time, they'll get the go ahead for at least 10% capacity (I've been told from an event organizer in Manitoba, that MB Health told them they'd have 10-15% if their outdoor event was happening "tomorrow", kinda thing) but I'm curious about getting players across the border and through the mandated quarantine periods and then on the field to practice. All of that stuff. 

As someone who works heavily in this industry I've heard nothing of the sort. Too soon to say 

Here's a question I'll pose to our group here,

Vernon Adams, Matt's Nichols, or Fajardo 

 

Who you taking?

9 minutes ago, CodyT said:

Here's a question I'll pose to our group here,

Vernon Adams, Matt's Nichols, or Fajardo 

 

Who you taking?

Vernon Adams and it's not even a debate. 

VA all the way

Pending physicals for all 3, Nichols AINEC.