I wasn't sure where this Israel, Iran and China debacle should go, so I thought I would start a new thread and post it here:

Interesting article disusing Israel's actions in trying to destabilize Iran and how it monumentally backfired and brought China into the Middle East... it's kind of crazy

 

"To the extent that Netanyahu played a role here, his plot has backfired monumentally. If the China deal goes through, Iran is much strengthened and its hard liners are entirely unleashed. The positioning of Chinese security forces in Iran will make it increasingly risky for other countries such as Israel or the US to strike Iran, lest they come into conflict with nuclear-armed China."

Edited September 10, 20196 yr by wanna-b-fanboy

8 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

War crimes have allegedly already been committed in the last week since the invasion began. The ICC intends to investigate not only these claims but also retroactively as far back as 2013 when protests towards the pro-Russia gov't in Ukraine were taking place. (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2/icc-to-begin-investigation-into-possible-war-crimes-in-ukraine)

I don't think Putin or anyone in his inner circle gives a **** about the Geneva Convention at this point.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-invasion-march3-2022-1.6371091

 

The talks will go nowhere. Nothing short of complete capitulation will be acceptable to Putin. Meanwhile, a second Russian general has been killed on the battlefield:

Top Russian General Killed in Combat
-Getty
An officers’ organization in southern Russia has confirmed that a Russian general was killed in combat this week in Ukraine. General Andrei Sukhovetsky led the Russian 7th Airborne Division and was a deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army. The organization did not confirm how Sukhovetsky died. Christo Grozev, executive director of investigative journalism website Bellingcat, wrote on Twitter that the death would be a “major demotivator” for the Russian army.

10 minutes ago, Rich said:

Hypothetical question here.  As more natural resources start becoming available in the arctic and Russia decides they want access to them and starts annexing parts of Canada, would you stand by and fall in line or would you fight for your way of life and country?   

Don't want to get into a debate on whether or not the US would ever allow that to happen, but trying to put yourself in the shoes of being a citizen of an invaded country.

 

This is likely the most realistic scenario where we would be drawn into a physical altercation with Russia, besides a NATO war. 

 

My biggest fear is that my sons will have to fight a war someday. If I could take their place, I would. If they choose to fight and the military is willing to take me, I would. 

4 minutes ago, JCon said:

This is likely the most realistic scenario where we would be drawn into a physical altercation with Russia, besides a NATO war. 

 

My biggest fear is that my sons will have to fight a war someday. If I could take their place, I would. If they choose to fight and the military is willing to take me, I would. 

None of which include fighting. 

An interesting read:

 

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putin-loses-no-matter-how-this-plays-out-but-we-might-too/

1 hour ago, GCn20 said:

Unfortunately what you are describing is a war crime under the Geneva convention now. You cannot line up people against a wall and shoot them and the world cannot pretend it doesn't know and turn it's back anymore. Life is different than in 1945, the Geneva convention outlawed all the things you are describing as war crimes and life has changed since 1991 because it is near impossible to not have that kind of information leaked and broadcast to the whole world within minutes of it occurring. The world could pretend it didn't know about such atrocities and people couldn't provide proof it was happening. Now these things occur but are broadcast in real time by anyone with an internet connection and a flip phone. Bottom line this is 2022, what was done in the past is no longer relevant. The world has changed.

So long as Russia is occupying a sovereign nation with no pretext for doing so they will be sanctioned. The longer the sanctions go the more it weakens Putin's grip on power. Eventually. either his own people remove him or he can no longer fund his war machine and the rest of the world steps in and gives him his day at the end of the rope in The Hague.

His only path to victory was a combination of Ukraine not putting up any resistance, and the West sitting idly by. He grieviously miscalculated on both fronts.

 

Pretty sure this entire invasion is against the Geneva Convention, so what?  Putin has nuclear weapons and he's threatening to blow up the world, I don't think he's worried about being held accountable for not following the fair play rule book.

Meanwhile in some war torn African country were nobody cares, a Warlord is employing children to rape and murder other children. **** like this happens all the time and it doesn't even make the news.

Edited March 3, 20223 yr by Fatty Liver

After Putin gets done with Ukraine there wont be much left, on the humanitarian side it sound like there will be a temporary ceasefire to create a corridor so civilians can get out of the country

50 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

No. I see that as a lost battle, but certainly not the war. What is different about your scenario than what has been in place since 2014. Putin cannot win this war because the international community will never recognize his borders or sovereignty over the region. They are occupiers of Ukrainian territory and nothing more in the eyes of the world. Secondly, the need for Russia to leave massive amounts of troops in place is not f'ing off home. It is occupation...nothing more and that is not a won war.

Hate being a Debbie Downer, but this is the exact sort of "loss" I expect them to take. A smashed Ukraine military and their anti-Russia President deposed in favor of someone else, 2 new "republics" along with a Crimea that is full of Russian troops... and the poison pill that the West wasn't counting on: The Sino-Russian cooperation which will make their trade and banking sanctions irrelevant and lead to an undermining of the USD as the world's reserve currency. Nations like India (who I don't think have officially condemned Russia's actions?) with their huge economy and a pair of mid-size ones like Iran and Pakistan will be all watching this very closely.

There's other pieces on the board here. And NATO/US/EU's unwillingness and inability to do a darn thing about Russia in Ukraine is the first big domino away from the Post Cold War Uni-Polar world toward the Multi-Polar world in which we now find ourselves.

17 minutes ago, bluto said:

Hate being a Debbie Downer, but this is the exact sort of "loss" I expect them to take. A smashed Ukraine military and their anti-Russia President deposed in favor of someone else, 2 new "republics" along with a Crimea that is full of Russian troops... and the poison pill that the West wasn't counting on: The Sino-Russian cooperation which will make their trade and banking sanctions irrelevant and lead to an undermining of the USD as the world's reserve currency. Nations like India (who I don't think have officially condemned Russia's actions?) with their huge economy and a pair of mid-size ones like Iran and Pakistan will be all watching this very closely.

There's other pieces on the board here. And NATO/US/EU's unwillingness and inability to do a darn thing about Russia in Ukraine is the first big domino away from the Post Cold War Uni-Polar world toward the Multi-Polar world in which we now find ourselves.

Could be but I would be surprised if China (or India) jumped to Russia's side, their entire economic resurgence is reliant on trade they've established with the West.  I can't see China throwing that away....and for what gain?

I fear the worst....

At some point, the Russian military (when stymied) will fall back into to their ole default position........go strictly into straight full-on fire power mode - indiscriminate artillery and aerial bombardment and simply destroy everything, and to hell with any civilians. In fact, the goal is to exact a high civilian death toll in order to break the morale of the people.

Following the well worn playbook....when they take control, the Russian may have themselves a military parade to symbolize the supposed final defeat of the "Neo-Nazi element", with a final phase of the operation to destroy pockets of  "bandits" and "terrorists" - in other words, pretty well whoever they like. 

Grozny (Chechnya) all over again.

This is hilarious, worth the surprise at the end.

 

 

Edited March 3, 20223 yr by Fatty Liver

 

🤣

4 hours ago, Rich said:

Hypothetical question here.  As more natural resources start becoming available in the arctic and Russia decides they want access to them and starts annexing parts of Canada, would you stand by and fall in line or would you fight for your way of life and country?   

 

"Canada’s three northern territories have jointly requested a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to discuss Arctic security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.l

“Across the three territories we all have concerns,” Cochrane told MLAs in the NWT legislature. “We’ve written a letter to our prime minister to request a meeting with him to discuss Arctic security. 

“We’ve also requested that Arctic sovereignty be included in our next Council of the Federation meeting, which happens this summer,” she added, referring to a twice-yearly meeting of Canada’s 13 provincial and territorial leaders"

 

https://cabinradio.ca/86924/news/politics/canadas-territories-ask-trudeau-for-meeting-over-arctic-security/
 

reddit is good.

Harper had been the only Prime Minister to give northern security any attention. Maybe that was timing but he genuinely seemed interested in the north. Certainly northerj history. 

We need to fly the flag up there a lot more. Get appropriate equipment, like ships, in place too. 

2 minutes ago, JCon said:

Harper had been the only Prime Minister to give northern security any attention. Maybe that was timing but he genuinely seemed interested in the north. Certainly northerj history. 

We need to fly the flag up there a lot more. Get appropriate equipment, like ships, in place too. 

Well if the eyes of the government hasn't been opened yet it will be when Putin invades the next country on his list, don't worry though the Chinese will soon start invading countries too. Politicians need to come up with a plan to protect the north from any and all invaders.

I wont use my nuclear weapons but i will kill you just the same

 

 

4 minutes ago, bustamente said:

I wont use my nuclear weapons but i will kill you just the same

 

 

Insanity.

12 minutes ago, Mark F said:

Insanity.

No no no. C’mon let’s look at this from both sides.

 

6 hours ago, JCon said:

This is likely the most realistic scenario where we would be drawn into a physical altercation with Russia, besides a NATO war. 

 

My biggest fear is that my sons will have to fight a war someday. If I could take their place, I would. If they choose to fight and the military is willing to take me, I would. 

 

                                   

18 hours ago, bluto said:

Hate being a Debbie Downer, but this is the exact sort of "loss" I expect them to take. A smashed Ukraine military and their anti-Russia President deposed in favor of someone else, 2 new "republics" along with a Crimea that is full of Russian troops... and the poison pill that the West wasn't counting on: The Sino-Russian cooperation which will make their trade and banking sanctions irrelevant and lead to an undermining of the USD as the world's reserve currency. Nations like India (who I don't think have officially condemned Russia's actions?) with their huge economy and a pair of mid-size ones like Iran and Pakistan will be all watching this very closely.

There's other pieces on the board here. And NATO/US/EU's unwillingness and inability to do a darn thing about Russia in Ukraine is the first big domino away from the Post Cold War Uni-Polar world toward the Multi-Polar world in which we now find ourselves.

Sorry man, I think you are out to lunch. Been drinking the Glenn Beck koolaid or what?

18 hours ago, Fatty Liver said:

Could be but I would be surprised if China (or India) jumped to Russia's side, their entire economic resurgence is reliant on trade they've established with the West.  I can't see China throwing that away....and for what gain?

China's total trade with Russia per annum is 90 billion dollars

China's total trade to the US per annum 1.6 trillion

China is going to stay arms length from Russia. They will attempt to leverage the situation to gain trade advantage but siding with Russia completely...not going to happen. It's simple economics really.

Edited March 4, 20223 yr by GCn20

11 minutes ago, GCn20 said:

Sorry man, I think you are out to lunch. Been drinking the Glenn Beck koolaid or what?

That was unnecessary. But it really doesn't matter to me. I don't have a dog in this hunt. Russia is going to do whatever it will, the West will sabre-rattle and basically do nothing about it. That much is now obvious.

https://people.com/politics/russian-dissident-puts-arrest-bounty-on-vladimir-putin-amid-ukraine-invasion/?utm_campaign=peoplemagazine&utm_content=manual&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=6222315bdc4331000180d8c1&fbclid=IwAR2J-3WdaMFv6J8v1ms4TAfaBF11kM_WA22LR92yvdSBJP8lyd2rBA64KvE

 

I say the bounty needs to go up half a mil for every assassination attempt on Zelenskyy

Edited March 4, 20223 yr by iHeart

38 minutes ago, bluto said:

That was unnecessary. But it really doesn't matter to me. I don't have a dog in this hunt. Russia is going to do whatever it will, the West will sabre-rattle and basically do nothing about it. That much is now obvious.

No, it was necessary. Your comments in this thread seem like conjecture at best. You claim to not have a "dog in this hunt" but you've been commenting here all the same with your unpopular opinions. I think you've confused that word with ignorant, to be honest.

Do you even know what sabre rattling means? It's defined as the display or threat of military force. Has any western country done such a thing since Putin chose to invade a sovereign nation unprovoked? Nope. Western countries have expressed their collective condemnation and supported Ukrainian resistance within the respective framework of NATO legislation.

And to suggest the west has nothing is patently false. Russia's economy is in shambles and it's going to get worse as Putin continues to destroy Ukraine.

26 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

No, it was necessary. Your comments in this thread seem like conjecture at best. You claim to not have a "dog in this hunt" but you've been commenting here all the same with your unpopular opinions. I think you've confused that word with ignorant, to be honest.

If I have a dog in this hunt, it is the prevention and cessation of needless human suffering. That's it.

I understand this is an emotional topic for you and I will try to keep that in mind.

If my posts are causing you grief or stress, sincerely, I apologize.

26 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

Do you even know what sabre rattling means? It's defined as the display or threat of military force. Has any western country done such a thing since Putin chose to invade a sovereign nation unprovoked? Nope. Western countries have expressed their collective condemnation and supported Ukrainian resistance within the respective framework of NATO legislation.

Yes. I know what it means. That's why I used the metaphor. And your implication that it can only mean the threat of force is just wrong.

I'm sure the West's condemnation of Putin really hurts his feelings while they still, all of them, buy his gas. At prices which all went up due to his incursion into Ukraine.

Ouch.

26 minutes ago, blue_gold_84 said:

And to suggest the west has nothing is patently false. Russia's economy is in shambles and it's going to get worse as Putin continues to destroy Ukraine.

I didn't say that the West has nothing. Perhaps you read it wrong?

I said they'll do nothing. Which they, in any real terms, are doing. F-All. 

10 minutes ago, bluto said:

If I have a dog in this hunt, it is the prevention and cessation of needless human suffering. That's it.  I understand this is an emotional topic for you and I will try to keep that in mind.

If my posts are causing you grief or stress, sincerely, I apologize.  Yes. I know what it means. That's why I used the metaphor. And your implication that it can only mean the threat of force is just wrong.

I'm sure the West's condemnation of Putin really hurts his feelings while they still, all of them, buy his gas. At prices which all went up due to his incursion into Ukraine.

Ouch.

I didn't say that the West has nothing. Perhaps you read it wrong? I said they'll do nothing. Which they, in any real terms, are doing. F-All. 

The military materiel and humanitarian supplied to Ukraine has been of great help to them. Had it not been for this help, the invasion would have rolled over Ukraine already. The resistance has been much greater than Putin anticipated- over 4,000 Russian casualties, and two Russian generals dead. Even though Putin claims things are going according to plan, as of today contradicting government reports or criticizing Putin's war is is punishable by 20 years imprisonment, all independent media has been shut down and there are reports that Russian conscription of troops is imminent. None of this ensures Ukrainian victory but analysts have estimated that if Ukrainian resistance is not crushed in the next 7-10 days, Putin will be in trouble.

Third Assassination Attempt on Zelensky Fails as Putin Sparks ‘Nuclear Terror’

An aide to the Ukrainian president credits “Russian spies” for tipping them off to at least three assassination attempts.
Comic-turned-hero Volodymyr Zelensky has survived at least three precision assassination attempts by elite hit squads since Russia’s week old war began, according to Ukrainian officials who say his survival was all thanks to tip-offs from Russian spies.

Both the the Kremlin-funded Wagner group mercenaries and Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov’s kill teams have allegedly tried to kill the Ukrainian president, who is hiding out in various bunkers deep below the capital Kyiv, according to the Washington Post. The Wagner mercenaries—run by Yevgeny Prigozhin A.K.A. “Putin’s chef” —reportedly have a kill list of 24 names, including Zelensky, but were waylaid by the stalled military convoy outside of Kyiv that made it difficult for Russian special forces to secure an escape route, according to the Times of London.