DTonOB

On the No Yards decline, the decision was to take the ball at the 25 and no point or give the point and take it at the 40. 15 yards difference.

Castillo Castillo is #5 at +4.5 points to expected. Liegghio is #9 at -0.9 points to expected. Three missed converts and his average attempt for 29 yards is dragging him down.

😉

They were working on the NFL-style tap out in practice early in the week. I like it *if* you save it from going into the end zone. Giving it to them at the 17 (ie. touch it at the 2 and give the 15-yard No Yards) is better than a single point + possession at the 40.

There had to be at least 3 times last night where McCrae bobbled to had to double catch the ball. It didn't mean anything for this game, but that's not good.

Just on this point...Darby is dressed. I'd guess he's the DB to fill in if one of the Americans gets hurt. So 9 players for the 6 DB spots. I think I saw in this thread the suggested that they DNA Darby--that would make perfect sense. It would be a bit of protection for a Kramdi injury

17 sacks on pass plays, 1 on a run this year. 8.0% of dropbacks. For Collaros 28 sacks on passing plays last year, 1 on a running play (CFL quirk). The other Bombers QBs were sacked 5 times. 5.6% of dropbacks in 2022, 8.0% of dropbacks in 2023...a substantial increase. I haven't caught up charting pressures but Zach is under pressure a little less than last season's 28% of dropbacks.

Confirmed. If I hit two seconds, I’d be surprised. This year they upped the speed from “infant” to “toddler” which could explain how bad I was. Amazingly the 5 hot dogs didn’t affect my performance at all.

Bombers announce they're adding Miles Fox to the roster for tonight. To me that's gotta mean Oliveira is playing.

Which is what makes me wonder if they can add Miles Fox at game time. He was able to bump out to end a couple of times vs Sask...valuable snaps to rest for Jefferson/Haba.

My guess is that if Brady can't play, they'll put McCrae on, leave Brady on and have a 45-man roster. Saves them a bit on the salary cap, though it would have them essentially playing with a 44-man roster. What we were wondering about is if Brady can play are they allowed to add Fox back in and say "that's part of our game-time decision"?

The end zone cam (I don't remember it on the broadcast, but we were live at the same time) shows clearly the Briggs block and the side official throwing the flag right at it. When I think of what it would've looked like from field level at 100 miles an hour, it probably did look like it was from the back. What's the side and what's the back...there's a fine margin there.

I got a look at the end zone camera of the Grant return this morning. The flag was thrown on Jesse Briggs' block (not sure how it became #10 when announced). I can see why the official threw the flag at the time. Obviously very pleased that they overturned the call.

Lol...I hadn't considered that part of it. Just a head-scratching decision that I knew was coming if the Bombers got them to 3rd down.

For Friday: Start Brendan O'Leary-Orange at SB and make Rasheed Bailey the DNA. Bailey plays the whole game and it allows Greg McCrae/Janarion Grant to play 23 snaps in place of Drew Wolitarsky, Brady Oliveira or Mike Miller. Start Celestin Haba at DE and make Jackson Jeffcoat the DNA. Then Haba could play 23 snaps in place of Jake Thomas in a 3 DE package + Ricky Walker. The Bombers would appear to have limited ways to benefit on D since they regularly start only 1 CDN there. When Lawler is back they could have a receiving corps of Lawler-Schoen-Demski-Bailey-Agudosi for 23 snaps a game. They would have to roster Grant/Agudosi as backups instead of Grant/McCrae costing them some flexibility.

You are a god-send. This clears up a ton of confusion we had today.

Talked to him briefly a couple days ago and then was watching OL/DL pad drills today...he looks like he's in good shape. I'd say leaner than last year, but I could be being fooled by the beard.

Bennett has been with the 2nd team with Cooper (before Cooper took Jeffcoat's spot). Bennett has a ton of energy. At the moment I'd guess he gets rostered for most of the games this season--special teams and rotational pass rush. Eli's been getting full second-team reps. He's missed the last ?two? days, but he's at practice. I didn't see him up close in '21...nothing I've seen makes me think he's out of shape.

I've got some time, so here's what we've talked about on the CJOB Sports Show (happy to answer any questions for the next little bit): WR has been consistenly Lawler-Schoen-Demski-Bailey-Wolitarsky. Bailey moving back to the slot after a year at WR. Line is Bryant-Gray-Kolankowski-Neufeld-Hardrick. I haven't seen any reps for anyone else with the first team. Dobson has been 6th OL. Eli at C with 2nd team. Brady practiced day 1, but not since then. Johnny took over, but missed a couple days. Appeared he was back in limited action today. They signed an American RB today...I'd guess it's because they had only two RBs able to work the last couple days (Salima ahead of Barnes). 2nd offense: Richmond-Dobson-Eli-Machino-various dudes at tackle. Harrison & Agudosi are slots with WR2. They switched Agudosi to the same SB position as Bailey--so there's potential competition for the starting spot. QBs appear to have become Zach, Brown, Pigrome, Jones Defence: Willie-Walker-Thomas-Jeffcoat are #1. Lawson in for Thomas for most of camp, Cooper for Jeffcoat (who's been out since Day 4). With American DTs coming in late we've seen a lot of Schmekel-Kornelson at DT. But I have to believe there'll be another American DT to back up Walker. DBs were Rose-Nichols-Alexander-Parker-Lawrence-Darby. Last few days Holm and Parker started splitting reps with 1st & 2nd team. Houston now in Rose's spot after Rose's injury. Houston was at HB with the 2s before that. Corner Matt Cole has a real good chance to make the team IMO. Fast, strong, a lot of return experience. LBs have been all over the place without Bighill & Wilson. Gauthier for Bighill generally. I've seen Gauthier-Clements, Gauthier-Wade, Gauthier-Dixon (who's been cut), Clements-Wade, Clements-Cole, Clements-Cadwallader, Maruo-Cole...apart from Gauthier it's tough to figure who else is LB2. Wade is explosive in short areas. I'd think he's the best non-starting American box linebacker, but not sure how he is on specials.

Looking very good. One thing with the receivers...Lawler is the WR on the short side (X), Schoen the SB next to him. Then Bailey & Agudosi are in the SB position between Demski & Wolitarsky.

With a couple months to spare until camp, here's where I come to my concerns about the D. And it's all relative to how the offense looks like the best in the league. As it stands, I'd guess the starters to be: Rose-Nichols-Alexander-Houston-Lawrence, Darby at DIME. Parker's got to be in the mix somewhere. Wilson-Bighill Jeffcoat-Walker-Thomas-Jefferson Nichols is a MODP candidate and Alexander is rock solid. Winston Rose had some rough games and got moved off the boundary side (before returning after Demerio Houston's injury). Three corners for two spots means, presumably, Houston moves back inside, so that's a change. And there's got to be some reason that Hamilton gave up on Lawrence (I liked him here...he was dominant in jump ball situations in the two games vs. BC). Coverage was already a concern for them last year. They had Bighill drop much more often than the year before, and overall blitzed much less often. With the loss of Taylor they're less experienced back there. And they lost Ford to the NFL. Up front: The amount of pressure they created from the interior was off dramatically from 2021 (when it was Stove). For now they have only Ricky Walker on the roster, and seemingly no cap to give anyone much more than the minimum. In losing Sayles they lose a guy who allowed them to carry 6 DL on the roster (twice officially, but essentially a few more when DeJaun Cooper was the 7th). Sayles ability to rush from the edge allowed them to rotate out Jefferson/Jeffcoat for a few plays. Will the Americans they bring in have that ability? Or will the Bombers be forced to use another roster spot? Jefferson and Jeffcoat are elite, but currently there's no depth behind them. Jeffcoat has played exactly 12 regular season games each of the last four seasons. This year's equivalent of Cedric Wilcots/L.B. Mack will probably get valuable reps. Plus, everyone is a year older. Bighill may be the only one we're really watching for that effect this season (35 in October). But Jefferson and Jeffcoat are both 32. All in, they were one of the great all-time Ds in 2021. They weren't as good last year. And this year they've lost talent, IMO. That's where my concern comes from.

Anybody have a question they want me to ask on tonight's Bombers Winter Special (7-9 on CJOB)? We've got the following guys lined up: Jeffcoat, Neufeld, Collaros, Kyle Walters, Alexander and Lawler If you've got a good/funny/interesting Q, I'm happy to ask it and give you the credit (unless it's really, really good and then I'll take credit myself) 😊

I work from the question "Was the QB able to get off his normal throw in his normal rhythm?" If not, then he's under pressure. There's other adjustments and situations. But that's where it starts for me. One minor beef I've had with QB hits as a proxy for pressure is: if the QB didn't see the hit coming and it happens after he releases the ball, was he really under pressure? That said I wish I'd tracked QB hits all along the way. There'd be some interesting stories in there.

The CFL tried to officially track pressures in 2017. But they ran into the trouble of having stats people in 9 different stadiums trying to interpret what a pressure is. So they stopped. You're 100% right that it's subjective, even among coaches. Some I've talked to say "Moving a QB off his spot is a pressure". Others have said a QB doing a routine climb of the pocket in not a QB under pressure. QBs inviting a DE in to sell a screen pass...is that pressure? Those are a just a couple of the ones you run into.

Oh, at $240K (the highest for a defensive end) I think you're right that people will expect big sacks and league awards. I think consistently getting QB pressure is a better predictor of sacks than sacks themselves. Sacks are fickle. We credited Orimolade with 10 sacks last season (including playoffs). 8 of those he beat his blocker(s) quickly--'Wins' as we label them. That was 2nd-best in the league. Shawn Lemon had 14 sacks, but we judged only 6 to be Wins. 6 of his were cleaning up someone else's work or Pursuit sacks (ie. QB gets flushed and he chases him a long distance). Wins are the ones I truly care about A huge part of why I would have paid Orimolade he'll be 27 at Grey Cup. The rest of the top-10 in QB pressures average 31 years old this season.