DTonOB

For Friday: Start Brendan O'Leary-Orange at SB and make Rasheed Bailey the DNA. Bailey plays the whole game and it allows Greg McCrae/Janarion Grant to play 23 snaps in place of Drew Wolitarsky, Brady Oliveira or Mike Miller. Start Celestin Haba at DE and make Jackson Jeffcoat the DNA. Then Haba could play 23 snaps in place of Jake Thomas in a 3 DE package + Ricky Walker. The Bombers would appear to have limited ways to benefit on D since they regularly start only 1 CDN there. When Lawler is back they could have a receiving corps of Lawler-Schoen-Demski-Bailey-Agudosi for 23 snaps a game. They would have to roster Grant/Agudosi as backups instead of Grant/McCrae costing them some flexibility.

You are a god-send. This clears up a ton of confusion we had today.

Talked to him briefly a couple days ago and then was watching OL/DL pad drills today...he looks like he's in good shape. I'd say leaner than last year, but I could be being fooled by the beard.

Bennett has been with the 2nd team with Cooper (before Cooper took Jeffcoat's spot). Bennett has a ton of energy. At the moment I'd guess he gets rostered for most of the games this season--special teams and rotational pass rush. Eli's been getting full second-team reps. He's missed the last ?two? days, but he's at practice. I didn't see him up close in '21...nothing I've seen makes me think he's out of shape.

I've got some time, so here's what we've talked about on the CJOB Sports Show (happy to answer any questions for the next little bit): WR has been consistenly Lawler-Schoen-Demski-Bailey-Wolitarsky. Bailey moving back to the slot after a year at WR. Line is Bryant-Gray-Kolankowski-Neufeld-Hardrick. I haven't seen any reps for anyone else with the first team. Dobson has been 6th OL. Eli at C with 2nd team. Brady practiced day 1, but not since then. Johnny took over, but missed a couple days. Appeared he was back in limited action today. They signed an American RB today...I'd guess it's because they had only two RBs able to work the last couple days (Salima ahead of Barnes). 2nd offense: Richmond-Dobson-Eli-Machino-various dudes at tackle. Harrison & Agudosi are slots with WR2. They switched Agudosi to the same SB position as Bailey--so there's potential competition for the starting spot. QBs appear to have become Zach, Brown, Pigrome, Jones Defence: Willie-Walker-Thomas-Jeffcoat are #1. Lawson in for Thomas for most of camp, Cooper for Jeffcoat (who's been out since Day 4). With American DTs coming in late we've seen a lot of Schmekel-Kornelson at DT. But I have to believe there'll be another American DT to back up Walker. DBs were Rose-Nichols-Alexander-Parker-Lawrence-Darby. Last few days Holm and Parker started splitting reps with 1st & 2nd team. Houston now in Rose's spot after Rose's injury. Houston was at HB with the 2s before that. Corner Matt Cole has a real good chance to make the team IMO. Fast, strong, a lot of return experience. LBs have been all over the place without Bighill & Wilson. Gauthier for Bighill generally. I've seen Gauthier-Clements, Gauthier-Wade, Gauthier-Dixon (who's been cut), Clements-Wade, Clements-Cole, Clements-Cadwallader, Maruo-Cole...apart from Gauthier it's tough to figure who else is LB2. Wade is explosive in short areas. I'd think he's the best non-starting American box linebacker, but not sure how he is on specials.

Looking very good. One thing with the receivers...Lawler is the WR on the short side (X), Schoen the SB next to him. Then Bailey & Agudosi are in the SB position between Demski & Wolitarsky.

With a couple months to spare until camp, here's where I come to my concerns about the D. And it's all relative to how the offense looks like the best in the league. As it stands, I'd guess the starters to be: Rose-Nichols-Alexander-Houston-Lawrence, Darby at DIME. Parker's got to be in the mix somewhere. Wilson-Bighill Jeffcoat-Walker-Thomas-Jefferson Nichols is a MODP candidate and Alexander is rock solid. Winston Rose had some rough games and got moved off the boundary side (before returning after Demerio Houston's injury). Three corners for two spots means, presumably, Houston moves back inside, so that's a change. And there's got to be some reason that Hamilton gave up on Lawrence (I liked him here...he was dominant in jump ball situations in the two games vs. BC). Coverage was already a concern for them last year. They had Bighill drop much more often than the year before, and overall blitzed much less often. With the loss of Taylor they're less experienced back there. And they lost Ford to the NFL. Up front: The amount of pressure they created from the interior was off dramatically from 2021 (when it was Stove). For now they have only Ricky Walker on the roster, and seemingly no cap to give anyone much more than the minimum. In losing Sayles they lose a guy who allowed them to carry 6 DL on the roster (twice officially, but essentially a few more when DeJaun Cooper was the 7th). Sayles ability to rush from the edge allowed them to rotate out Jefferson/Jeffcoat for a few plays. Will the Americans they bring in have that ability? Or will the Bombers be forced to use another roster spot? Jefferson and Jeffcoat are elite, but currently there's no depth behind them. Jeffcoat has played exactly 12 regular season games each of the last four seasons. This year's equivalent of Cedric Wilcots/L.B. Mack will probably get valuable reps. Plus, everyone is a year older. Bighill may be the only one we're really watching for that effect this season (35 in October). But Jefferson and Jeffcoat are both 32. All in, they were one of the great all-time Ds in 2021. They weren't as good last year. And this year they've lost talent, IMO. That's where my concern comes from.

Anybody have a question they want me to ask on tonight's Bombers Winter Special (7-9 on CJOB)? We've got the following guys lined up: Jeffcoat, Neufeld, Collaros, Kyle Walters, Alexander and Lawler If you've got a good/funny/interesting Q, I'm happy to ask it and give you the credit (unless it's really, really good and then I'll take credit myself) 😊

I work from the question "Was the QB able to get off his normal throw in his normal rhythm?" If not, then he's under pressure. There's other adjustments and situations. But that's where it starts for me. One minor beef I've had with QB hits as a proxy for pressure is: if the QB didn't see the hit coming and it happens after he releases the ball, was he really under pressure? That said I wish I'd tracked QB hits all along the way. There'd be some interesting stories in there.

The CFL tried to officially track pressures in 2017. But they ran into the trouble of having stats people in 9 different stadiums trying to interpret what a pressure is. So they stopped. You're 100% right that it's subjective, even among coaches. Some I've talked to say "Moving a QB off his spot is a pressure". Others have said a QB doing a routine climb of the pocket in not a QB under pressure. QBs inviting a DE in to sell a screen pass...is that pressure? Those are a just a couple of the ones you run into.

Oh, at $240K (the highest for a defensive end) I think you're right that people will expect big sacks and league awards. I think consistently getting QB pressure is a better predictor of sacks than sacks themselves. Sacks are fickle. We credited Orimolade with 10 sacks last season (including playoffs). 8 of those he beat his blocker(s) quickly--'Wins' as we label them. That was 2nd-best in the league. Shawn Lemon had 14 sacks, but we judged only 6 to be Wins. 6 of his were cleaning up someone else's work or Pursuit sacks (ie. QB gets flushed and he chases him a long distance). Wins are the ones I truly care about A huge part of why I would have paid Orimolade he'll be 27 at Grey Cup. The rest of the top-10 in QB pressures average 31 years old this season.

Unfortunately I don't have snap counts, but... Winnipeg's D faced 686 dropbacks (Pass attempts + Sacks + QB scrambles) Ottawa's D faced 613 Total pass + rush attempts against their D + sacks (per CFL): Winnipeg: 942 Ottawa: 947

I asked him about it in the post-game show, and we'll definitely talk about it on Tuesday. O'Shea said that it's known to be a legal play in the CFL that results in an Illegal Kickoff. He said he doesn't like the rule, but he praised Terry Williams for making a smart play. I guess the rules treat Williams' play like catching a ball with a foot on the sidelines. It's not illegal to do so, it's just out of bounds, incomplete. I'd expected the rules would treat it like going out of bounds unforced and reaching back into the field of play--Illegal Participation. Upon further review of the rules, the one I was looking at says "loose ball" for IP. But a kickoff is a "kicked ball"

I had a bunch that I think eventually get in...especially if they get a 3rd straight Grey Cup. Doug, Ed and I agreed that Collaros, Bryant and O'Shea are locks. There's going to be multiple major awards for each guy, and a great chance to add to two Grey Cups. Jefferson, Bighill are right behind. Alexander, Demski with a couple more years at this level will be in. And Jermarcus Hardrick--for me the best RT in the league the last four years--will get there too. So, my guess is 8. That's nuts considering they just inducted their 12th player. But this could be a historically great era in the CFL.

I would argue we saw the things Fajardo doing were for real, though when they were 3-3 nobody was selling Fajardo was MOP. The following game where he scored the winning TD against Hamilton, that certainly help. Ultimately when the Riders went 13-5 with him leading the league in passing yards and being 7th in rushing yards, it made sense. For me, the big difference between Fajardo's & Nichols' spots was that I thought the Bombers had better talent on O. And Nichols' style (1/3rd of his passes & 1/4 of yards come on passes within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage that year), requires too much from other players to deserve MOP acclaim. Well...Fajardo's prior experience was 68 regular season pass attempts playing behind Ricky Ray and Michael Reilly (while Fajardo was on his first contract). By the time of the Collaros trade, Fajardo had almost double that many attempts in the Sask offence with their personnel and their coordinator, so I get it. Plus, his designed run + scramble game is something very few guys have--I'm sure that potential appealed to them as well.

From Fajardo's first start to the week before the trade (Weeks 2-7; incl. 1 bye): - 76% completion (#1) on 9.7 aDOT - 10.3 YPA (#1; only 2 other guys were over 9), - 9.3 ANY/A (#1; next was 8.2) - 125 passer rating not under pressure (#1) - #2 in TD percentage, - 2nd-lowest percentage of yards off short throws Whether you like him/root for him or not, Fajardo was already at his West MOP level when the trade happened.

One important thing to remember was that Zach was ready to come back from his injury when the Riders traded him. And with Fajardo flying by that point, we would have been relentless with the "Who's the QB?" "What about that throw? Does that tell you it's time to go back to Zach?" "How can you take a job from a guy because of injury?" As many have pointed out, the return wasn't great. But I think part of it is that the Riders wanted needed it done quickly.

Did Ray Patterson leave Springfield hanging when they needed him the most?

Just making my way through the decontamination chamber