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Covid-19


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3 hours ago, J5V said:

In the video he said that Denmark, Sweden's neighbour, went into full lockdown mode, like us, and is experiencing about the same death rate as Sweden. If that's true, then what's the point of a lockdown? Add to that the fact that Sweden hasn't "cratered" their economy and the strategy makes sense. Their approach is to take the brunt of it now and get it over with instead of prolonging the pain and suffering of a protracted lockdown. 

Did some math. (Numbers from CBC coronavirus tracker)

Death rate of Denmark= 273/6369*100= 4.3%

Death rate of Sweden=899/10483*100=8.6%

Sweden's death rate (to the nearest tenth) is exactly double that of Denmark's. How is that about the same?

And that approach is precisely how you overrun the healthcare system. The prolonging is so that the system can actually accommodate everyone who gets coronavirus. Otherwise, more people die because they can't receive proper treatment.

Edited by AtlanticRiderFan
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3 hours ago, J5V said:

In the video he said that Denmark, Sweden's neighbour, went into full lockdown mode, like us, and is experiencing about the same death rate as Sweden. If that's true, then what's the point of a lockdown? Add to that the fact that Sweden hasn't "cratered" their economy and the strategy makes sense. Their approach is to take the brunt of it now and get it over with instead of prolonging the pain and suffering of a protracted lockdown. 

Yes 899 deaths is the same as 273, but to be fair Sweden's population is much higher than Denmark's and the population density of Denmark is crazy high compared to Sweden... so it's hard to compare. 

Sovereign state Kingdom of Denmark Kingdom of Sweden
Population (2018 estimate) 5,809,502 10,313,447
Area 43,094 km2 450,295 km2
Population density (2015 estimate) 129.5/km2 22.9/km2

 

Check the link for a comprehensive graph in the article- the two curves will show a steep incline in Sweden and a less steep one for Denmark...

 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/12/is-sweden-s-covid-19-strategy-working

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1 hour ago, Floyd said:

Denmark has a much lower death rate but also a much lower population density

 

???

Sovereign states
Sovereign state Kingdom of Denmark Kingdom of Sweden
Population (2018 estimate) 5,809,502 10,313,447
Area 43,094 km2 450,295 km2
Population density (2015 estimate) 129.5/km2 22.9/km2
Edited by wanna-b-fanboy
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April 13 17:53 GMT

465 new cases and 20 new deaths in Sweden

144 new cases and 12 new deaths in Denmark 

25 new cases and 3 new deaths in South Korea

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

South Korea flattened its coronavirus curve quickly. 

It’s a weekday morning and Eunha Shim is at Soongsil University in downtown Seoul where she works in the mathematics department.

The country is in its second two-week phase of extreme social distancing and Shim said there are far fewer people on the streets than normal, although some students are meeting on campus.

The country’s quick reaction to COVID-19, through a variety of strict measures, including social distancing tied with steep fines for violation of these guidelines, and mass testing, has been able to slow the spread of coronavirus and reduce the rate of death compared to other countries, according to two studies co-authored by a number of researchers, including Shim, a Canadian who moved to Seoul five years ago.

 

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/04/11/south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve-quickly-can-this-teach-the-rest-of-the-world-something.html

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, AtlanticRiderFan said:

Did some math. (Numbers from CBC coronavirus tracker)

Death rate of Denmark= 273/6369*100= 4.3%

Death rate of Sweden=899/10483*100=8.6%

Sweden's death rate (to the nearest tenth) is exactly double that of Denmark's. How is that about the same?

And that approach is precisely how you overrun the healthcare system. The prolonging is so that the system can actually accommodate everyone who gets coronavirus. Otherwise, more people die because they can't receive proper treatment.

A week ago Sweden had 400 deaths which would have put them at 3.82%. They have spiked since then, as expected. They will adjust as they see necessary.

"However in other places in Sweden, travel and tourism have increased during Easter, despite the appeal to stay at home. 
“We have seen an extra influx of people, and it worries me a bit”, says Simrishamn Municipal councillor Jeanette Ovesson.
“It's hard to say if it has any impact. We will see possible consequences in a couple of weeks. But there has been no higher burden on health care these days”, says Ovesson"

 

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46 minutes ago, J5V said:

Yeah, I said 899 is the same as 273. Uh huh. SMH

Don't shake your head at me- that is exactly what you implied here below. 

5 hours ago, J5V said:

Denmark, Sweden's neighbour, went into full lockdown mode, like us, and is experiencing about the same death rate as Sweden. If that's true, then what's the point of a lockdown? 

Get your ******* facts straight before you condescend to me.

Edited by wanna-b-fanboy
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1 hour ago, wanna-b-fanboy said:

Yes 899 deaths is the same as 273, but to be fair Sweden's population is much higher than Denmark's and the population density of Denmark is crazy high compared to Sweden... so it's hard to compare. 

Sovereign state Kingdom of Denmark Kingdom of Sweden
Population (2018 estimate) 5,809,502 10,313,447
Area 43,094 km2 450,295 km2
Population density (2015 estimate) 129.5/km2 22.9/km2

 

Check the link for a comprehensive graph in the article- the two curves will show a steep incline in Sweden and a less steep one for Denmark...

 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/12/is-sweden-s-covid-19-strategy-working

I was just reading this article - super interesting.

Sweden does look like they will have to back track... unless that curves peaks this week.  

Denmark and Finland appear to be relaxing measures and re-opening schools soon.

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1 hour ago, J5V said:

Yeah, I said 899 is the same as 273. Uh huh. SMH

Well... once you look deeper into these countries...

Copenhagen and Stockholm - have about the same population and urban density - so they are very comparable and very comparable to Toronto

Both cities have about half the population density as Milan - the epicentre in Italy.

Covid is an urban issue - even the rural municipalties in Italy did not get hit hard... 

 

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Just now, wanna-b-fanboy said:

So what are the respective death rates then?

I got 4.7 and 8.7 per 100 000- please some one check my math.

No, you're right, and I apologize if I wasn't clear. These numbers are jumping all over the place as things change daily. These trends will become clearer as more time goes by. 

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1 minute ago, J5V said:

No, you're right, and I apologize if I wasn't clear. These numbers are jumping all over the place as things change daily. These trends will become clearer as more time goes by. 

No worries, it is confusing and a **** tonne of numbers are thrown around at us.

ANd yeah, once statisticians get a grip on things things will become more clear.

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2 hours ago, AtlanticRiderFan said:

Did some math. (Numbers from CBC coronavirus tracker)

Death rate of Denmark= 273/6369*100= 4.3%

Death rate of Sweden=899/10483*100=8.6%

Sweden's death rate (to the nearest tenth) is exactly double that of Denmark's. How is that about the same?

And that approach is precisely how you overrun the healthcare system. The prolonging is so that the system can actually accommodate everyone who gets coronavirus. Otherwise, more people die because they can't receive proper treatment.

but muh 'conomy!!!

Better people should die and my investment doesn't lose money. 

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1 hour ago, J5V said:

A week ago Sweden had 400 deaths which would have put them at 3.82%. They have spiked since then, as expected. They will adjust as they see necessary.

"However in other places in Sweden, travel and tourism have increased during Easter, despite the appeal to stay at home. 
“We have seen an extra influx of people, and it worries me a bit”, says Simrishamn Municipal councillor Jeanette Ovesson.
“It's hard to say if it has any impact. We will see possible consequences in a couple of weeks. But there has been no higher burden on health care these days”, says Ovesson"

 

Based on worldometers.info stats (compiled from Johns Hopkins and WHO data, and cited by Floyd in an earlier post), your statement that Denmark in a lockdown is doing as bad as Sweden in non-lockdown is wrong. Your next statement that Sweden a week ago had a 3.82% mortality rate is, well I won't say wrong, I prefer to say it's a lie.

As of April 13 -

Sweden: population 10.099 million (#91 in the world), 10,948 cases (19th), 919 deaths (14th), 91 deaths per million pop. (12th), and a mortality rate of 8.4% (deaths/total cases)

Denmark: population 5.792 million (#115 in the world), 6,318 cases (31st), 285 deaths (26th), 41 deaths per million pop. (20th), and a mortality rate of 4.5% (deaths/total cases)

Finland: population 5.540 million (#116 in the world), 3,064 cases (46th), 59 deaths (52nd), 11 deaths per million pop. (48th), and a mortality rate of 1.9% (deaths/total cases)

Norway: population 5.421 million (#119 in the world), 6,551 cases (29th), 134 deaths (34th), 25 deaths per million pop. (27th), and a mortality rate of 2.0% (deaths/total cases)

 

One week ago, Sweden had 477 deaths and 7,206 cases, for a mortality rate of 6.6%

Helps your argument if you don't make stuff up to back your hypothesis.

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