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Covid-19


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32 minutes ago, AtlanticRiderFan said:

You didn't come out and say that coronavirus was no big deal, but you have definitely downplayed the severity of it, and you have implied that the measures being taken are too extreme. But those measures are what will prevent the healthcare system from being overrun, and in turn, people dying because they couldn't get proper treatment. And if the measures don't work, it's because not enough people listened. But if they do work, it wasn't an overreaction; it means we took proper precautions.

I'm all for protecting the most vulnerable, which are the sick and the elderly -- those with compromised immune systems. The vast majority of fatalities belong to that group and not the strong and healthy. The vast majority of us experience mild to no symptoms. This is not my opinion. It is a fact. We don't isolate the strong and healthy for the flu, which so far has proven to be an even bigger killer, so why are we doing it for the coronavirus?  We have no vaccine for the coronavirus so how are we supposed to build herd immunity within our strong and healthy population? By isolating them? Makes no sense to me and I don't know how it makes sense to you.

The measures I disagree with are economic and are resulting in the destruction of our economy. This, in my opinion, is insanity. 

 

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18 minutes ago, J5V said:

I'm all for protecting the most vulnerable, which are the sick and the elderly -- those with compromised immune systems. The vast majority of fatalities belong to that group and not the strong and healthy. The vast majority of us experience mild to no symptoms. This is not my opinion. It is a fact. We don't isolate the strong and healthy for the flu, which so far has proven to be an even bigger killer, so why are we doing it for the coronavirus?  We have no vaccine for the coronavirus so how are we supposed to build herd immunity within our strong and healthy population? By isolating them? Makes no sense to me and I don't know how it makes sense to you.

The measures I disagree with are economic and are resulting in the destruction of our economy. This, in my opinion, is insanity. 

 

Because the strong and healthy can still pass it on to vulnerable people, even if they are not symptomatic. We also don't know everything about this virus yet, as it is new, so it is incredibly dangerous to put the general population at risk by not taking precautions. It could have more detrimental effects on healthy people than we realize. Right now when we don't have a vaccine is all the more reason to keep our distance. A vaccine will be developed eventually, so in the meantime, let's not let it spread exponentially. Yes, the closures are terrible for the economy, but I would rather millions of people not die or have irreversible damage done to their bodies.

You also keep saying that the flu is deadlier, but the coronavirus death toll has only spiked within the last two to three weeks. We don't know that it isn't going to be worse than the flu in a few months time. THIS is why we are being more cautious with coronavirus than with the flu.

 

Edited by AtlanticRiderFan
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17 minutes ago, J5V said:

We don't isolate the strong and healthy for the flu, which so far has proven to be an even bigger killer, so why are we doing it for the coronavirus? 

For the millionth time, because this is a new virus that spreads ******* fast! The flu has been around forever and doesn't overload the health care system. That's what we are trying to accomplish here, save lives by  not having to choose who lives and who dies because we don't have enough resources to handle everyone getting sick at once. 

 

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3 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

For the millionth time, because this is a new virus that spreads ******* fast! The flu has been around forever and doesn't overload the health care system. That's what we are trying to accomplish here, save lives by  not having to choose who lives and who dies because we don't have enough resources to handle everyone getting sick at once. 

 

The most optimistic estimate about the CORVID19 virus mortality rate puts it about 1.8%- and that is 3X higher than most flu's. That alone is enough to warrant great caution.

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Nobody is ready for what is coming. Already there are stories in the newspapers and on TV questioning the White House estimates of 100,000 to 240,000 dead. The White House officials who devised those models won't provide the assumptions that went into them, and none of the models contained an endpoint for when the virus might run its course and the dying will stop. I just saw a public health expert from the University of Minnesota on MSNBC who dismissed the White House models out of hand and said we're looking at more than a million deaths from COVID-19 before the end of the year. More than a million. 

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19 minutes ago, J5V said:

I'm all for protecting the most vulnerable, which are the sick and the elderly -- those with compromised immune systems. The vast majority of fatalities belong to that group and not the strong and healthy. The vast majority of us experience mild to no symptoms. This is not my opinion. It is a fact. We don't isolate the strong and healthy for the flu, which so far has proven to be an even bigger killer, so why are we doing it for the coronavirus?  We have no vaccine for the coronavirus so how are we supposed to build herd immunity within our strong and healthy population? By isolating them? Makes no sense to me and I don't know how it makes sense to you.

The measures I disagree with are economic and are resulting in the destruction of our economy. This, in my opinion, is insanity. 

The flu question is bewildering - the more you look at data, the more I wonder why we don't do more

Covid is a higher death rate but disproportionately affects 50 and older - mostly 70+... anyone who says different is not looking at the stats - I totally agree that we are saving lives now at the expense of deaths when Gen X needs senior care - we will have no money, massive debt and no tax base...

I also agree that this lockdown is a panic response and herd immunity - far better to test and isolate those in danger but I don't think we have a choice...  if anything this highlights how the Boomers have overwhelmed our health care systems already and how we are on a razor thin margin of error

I think we are flattening the curve just to buy time - and that's not a bad thing

We are fighting the unknowns right now with this lockdown - I think next winter, Covid hits again and we respond the same as we do with the flu...

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3 minutes ago, Tracker said:

Nobody is ready for what is coming. Already there are stories in the newspapers and on TV questioning the White House estimates of 100,000 to 240,000 dead. The White House officials who devised those models won't provide the assumptions that went into them, and none of the models contained an endpoint for when the virus might run its course and the dying will stop. I just saw a public health expert from the University of Minnesota on MSNBC who dismissed the White House models out of hand and said we're looking at more than a million deaths from COVID-19 before the end of the year. More than a million. 

We can't estimate anything until we see a legit end in Italy and Spain... these are comparable population densities to New York

Judging by the info we have - there will be 15,000 dead in New York

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Contrary to the pronouncements by the Trump Administration, the COVID 19 crisis will not be over in May, not even close. 

Let´s be realistic

It is far more realistic to plan on 5-6 months of very, very restricted public life. That means no open restaurants, no non-essential business, no schools during that time period. And, owing to the incredible gaps in the U.S. health care and health insurance systems, the loss of life may reach approximately two million by September in the United States alone.

In the second quarter, the U.S. economy will contract by at least 12% on a quarterly basis. 12%! In the third quarter, that number might reach a collapse of 30%.

Unemployment will reach 30-40%. Not even in the 1930s did the United States experience such a situation (it peaked at 25%). We will see massive corporate and personal bankruptcies in June. They will be higher than anything we have ever experienced. No CARES Act will cure this

Edited by Tracker
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2 minutes ago, Tracker said:

Contrary to the pronouncements by the Trump Administration, the COVID 19 crisis will not be over in May, not even close. 

Let´s be realistic

It is far more realistic to plan on 5-6 months of very, very restricted public life. That means no open restaurants, no non-essential business, no schools during that time period. And, owing to the incredible gaps in the U.S. health care and health insurance systems, the loss of life may reach approximately two million by September in the United States alone.

In the second quarter, the U.S. economy will contract by at least 12% on a quarterly basis. 12%! In the third quarter, that number might reach a collapse of 30%.

Unemployment will reach 30-40%. Not even in the 1930s did the United States experience such a situation (it peaked at 25%). We will see massive corporate and personal bankruptcies in June. They will be higher than anything we have ever experienced. No CARES Act will cure this

Covid will be over in Canada by May...

And if your numbers are true - global leaders will be forced to decide between economy and elderly... they will choose the economy.  The world is not staying closed for six months.

One more month in Canada and maybe two in States - if that.

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16 minutes ago, Floyd said:

Covid will be over in Canada by May...

And if your numbers are true - global leaders will be forced to decide between economy and elderly... they will choose the economy.  The world is not staying closed for six months.

One more month in Canada and maybe two in States - if that.

This is contrary to the what the federal government has stated. They say in a "best case scenario," social distancing will last until at least July. Covid will not be over in May. It might peak at that point, but there will still be many infections at that point, especially if we don't properly flatten the curve.

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8 minutes ago, AtlanticRiderFan said:

This is contrary to the what the federal government has stated. They say in a "best case scenario," social distancing will last until at least July. Covid will not be over in May. It might peak at that point, but there will still be many infections at that point, especially if we don't properly flatten the curve.

I think they really don't know what to say.  If I had to guess, I would say they are saying July because that would be the end of the school year, which would considerably simplify the loosening of restrictions. 

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6 hours ago, pigseye said:

Thanks for the article- kind of frightening, but very interesting.

They made mention of one of @J5V's web sources:

"It has been widely reported that on March 12, Zhao Lijian, a senior spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, began circulating an insinuation that the U.S. military somehow smuggled the coronavirus into Wuhan. In subsequent posts, Zhao directed his Twitter followers to Montreal’s Centre for Research on Globalization—a crank website notorious for trafficking in outlandish “anti-imperialist” conspiracy theories—which had been circulating the claim. The ministry’s senior spokesperson, Hua Chunying, followed suit, as did several Chinese “news” organizations and diplomats."

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2 hours ago, Throw Long Bannatyne said:

Interesting article, but if this is their strategy I can see it absolutely backfiring, ramping up their economy to produce crap we don't really need will do them little good if all Western economies and consumers are in lock down.

"As the geopolitical upheavals set off by the pandemic shudder with a force without precedent since the Second World War, some things, however, are clear and plain. China’s most draconian lockdowns have been lifted. Beijing is claiming victory over the plague. And the Chinese Communist Party is seizing what its senior officials are calling the “opportunity” of the pandemic to realize the party’s long-game objective of fully eclipsing North America and Europe in the global order."

"Battered by the worst first-quarter economic performance since 1976, the Chinese economy is now being shifted into hyperdrive. Production is already back on track to achieve Beijing’s goal of making 2020 the year the country’s annual Gross Domestic Product doubles in size from 2010 to $13.1 trillion. But Beijing isn’t just doubling down on its usual methods, which involve constraining access to China’s growing markets while securing technological and global supply-chain dominance in critical trade sectors, and otherwise resorting to crude foreign-policy strong-arm tactics to get its way."

 

If they tie their plan to ideology they'll create the opposite effect they intended, and create immense push-back.  We may not fully understand  how they operate but it's clear they don't understand how we operate either.

"What’s new is that the Chinese state is committing vast resources to a hybrid strategy of intensified propaganda and information control in lockstep with an aggressive Russian-style disinformation effort. Aimed almost entirely at western audiences, the effort takes its cues from several Kremlin-backed operations, most obviously the barrage of fabricated “news” unleashed on behalf of the Donald Trump campaign during the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

Experts in the field say Beijing isn’t just selling a “narrative” anymore. The new strategy is intended to spread chaos and confusion and incite mistrust of governments in democratic countries. According to an analysis undertaken by the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD), a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Beijing is adopting “increasingly aggressive tactics and techniques” and rapidly ramping up its messaging on social media platforms, often cross-pollinating with Russian and Iranian disinformation efforts and amplifying conspiracy theories from fringe third-party websites."

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-the-breakthrough-xi-jinping-has-been-waiting-for-and-hes-making-his-move/

Just another racist & xenophobic article. Ai yi yi. 

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29 minutes ago, AtlanticRiderFan said:

Because the strong and healthy can still pass it on to vulnerable people, even if they are not symptomatic. We also don't know everything about this virus yet, as it is new, so it is incredibly dangerous to put the general population at risk by not taking precautions. It could have more detrimental effects on healthy people than we realize. Right now when we don't have a vaccine is all the more reason to keep our distance. A vaccine will be developed eventually, so in the meantime, let's not let it spread exponentially. Yes, the closures are terrible for the economy, but I would rather millions of people not die or have irreversible damage done to their bodies.

You also keep saying that the flu is deadlier, but the coronavirus death toll has only spiked within the last two to three weeks. We don't know that it isn't going to be worse than the flu in a few months time. THIS is why we are being more cautious with coronavirus than with the flu.

 

Which is why I said to protect them. Isolate the sick, not the healthy. We already know that when healthy people get it the vast majority brush it aside. What do you mean we don't know?

Who are these millions of dead people? 

Fact #1. The vast majority of fatalities are those with compromised immune systems such as diabetics, those suffering from organ failure, the sick and the elderly.
Fact #2. The vast majority of healthy people with healthy immune symptoms have no to mild symptoms and recover within 14 days.

Knowing this, if I had to address this problem, the most efficient solution I could think of would be to isolate the sick and the elderly and protect them from infection. Once I had secured them I would ask the strong and healthy to continue providing for their families and running their businesses while practising safe, hygenic measures to protect themselves from infection by frequent hand washing, covering their coughs and sneezes, and sanitizing their homes and work places. You could also track the people that have gotten ill and isolate them as well along with anyone they may have had contact with. 

This is not the same as a total lockdown.

It would likely accomplish the same goal as a total lock-down but at a minuscule fraction of the cost and destruction to the economy that we are doing right now.

Look at Singapore. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/countries-in-lockdown-should-try-what-singapore-is-doing-coronavirus-expert.html

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17 minutes ago, Mark H. said:

I think they really don't know what to say.  If I had to guess, I would say they are saying July because that would be the end of the school year, which would considerably simplify the loosening of restrictions. 

It is also the end of the 4 months of support from funds such as E.I. benefits.

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