I didn't think we had a thread for this. 

Is Trudeau this out of touch or does he just not care?

 

I don't see Trudeau as the "too unpopular to vote for" leader, as Mark suggested earlier. As much as he's hated in parts of Manitoba and all of Sask/AB, he's still popular in most of BC/ON/PQ, or so is my understanding. Those 3 provinces are where they're doing best. Singh has made strides and will get some support from people who don't like JPT and refuse to vote Con, but it won't be enough. 

I'm with Dave, I think the Grits take a majority in a walk. Between national hatred for all things Con and the Grits handling of the pandemic, it'll be a crushing victory for LPC. 

43 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I don't see Trudeau as the "too unpopular to vote for" leader, as Mark suggested earlier. As much as he's hated in parts of Manitoba and all of Sask/AB, he's still popular in most of BC/ON/PQ, or so is my understanding. Those 3 provinces are where they're doing best. Singh has made strides and will get some support from people who don't like JPT and refuse to vote Con, but it won't be enough. 

I'm with Dave, I think the Grits take a majority in a walk. Between national hatred for all things Con and the Grits handling of the pandemic, it'll be a crushing victory for LPC. 

The single biggest factor, IMO, is the PCs smearing themselves with feces at every opportunity and undercutting their own leader.

15 hours ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

Im thinking same IF theres an election. Still dont see it. Out $50 if so.

Provincially the Cons in ONT/AB/MB not looking so good so...

Also factor in Teflon Trudeau.

Um, you bet someone that there would NOT be an election call?? I hope you did this a year ago? This call has been in the works for several months. And, they all but announced it this month with the spending announcements. 

15 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

The question is would the failures of the conservative Provincial premiers translate into a Federal Liberal vote? My brother says Doug Ford has done the impossible, made him want to vote Liberal instead of Conservative in Ontario. Whether that carries over to a Federal election remains to be seen. 

Exactly what the Grits are counting on. Local conservative failures pushing the Libs to a majority. If nothing else, the Cons will spend their campaign trying to hold onto some challenging seats. They're not organized like they were before. It's bad for them. 

Welp, the Libs down 5pts in the last week. That’s majority points.

On 2021-08-13 at 12:30 PM, JCon said:

This is all about the polls and has nothing to do with the Liberals agenda. They have largely done whatever they've wanted to do over the past two years, with little pushback from the opposition, despite it being a minority gov't. 

They know that they have this window where the opposition is largely disliked and are poor. Liberals have money and think they will win a majority. 

As much I would love to punish them, I have only two parties to vote for in this constituency - the Libs and the Cons. I can't vote for the anti-science, alt-right Cons, so I guess I have to vote for the Libs. I'm not even sure who the NDP will run out this time here. 

 

What great choices we have....

3 hours ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

Welp, the Libs down 5pts in the last week. That’s majority points.

Polls are what they are. I'm a conservative voter & even I know that we have no chance. 

Canadians will head to the polls on Sept. 20.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-election-call-1.6141189

Edited August 15, 20214 yr by FrostyWinnipeg

37 minutes ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

Canadians will head to the polls on Sept. 20.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-election-call-1.6141189

*GASP*

After September 20th, the saying at Conservative Party HQ will be, "Ah, Erin O'Toole, we hardly knew ye."

Edited August 15, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

This is going to be a long 36 days *drinks from flask* 

I really and truly believe that the best thing for Canada is a Lib majority. Then some progressive changes on climate change and other stuff can finally be passed. 

1 hour ago, Noeller said:

I really and truly believe that the best thing for Canada is a Lib majority. Then some progressive changes on climate change and other stuff can finally be passed. 

What didnt they pass though without the NDP's help in the last 2 years? 🤔

5 minutes ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

What didnt they pass though without the NDP's help in the last 2 years? 🤔

We're about to find out, I believe... 

1 hour ago, Noeller said:

I really and truly believe that the best thing for Canada is a Lib majority. Then some progressive changes on climate change and other stuff can finally be passed. 

Probably be less progressive stuff coming now to be honest. No need to pander for NDP support, and the liberals are still a business friendly party.

4 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

After September 20th, the saying at Conservative Party HQ will be, "Ah, Erin O'Toole, we hardly knew ye."

O'Toole will be pilloried as an ineffective leader who cost them a sure victory. On the positive side, after being ousted, he may be given his spine back.

Wow. And the Oscar goes to……..

Getting pilloried for this ad from their own party insiders. Makes the “Just not a leader” spots look like Mensa material, and beating that ad was a low bar to clear. 

Edited August 16, 20214 yr by TrueBlue4ever

8 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Wow. And the Oscar goes to……..

Getting pilloried for this ad from their own party insiders. Makes the “Just not a leader” spots look like Mensa material, and betting that ad was a low bar to clear. 

I had heard this was both bad and infantile, but this sets new standards for stupidity. A great start for GOP Canada.

The right can't meme.

32 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

The right can't meme.

Its like an alien coming to earth and studying what is popular and connects with people the trying it themselves. I bet they were thinking it would go viral and show them to be the hip new Conservatives.

You know the message of the ad, Trudeau is calling an election in a pandemic for selfish reasons, he wants a majority to do whatever he wants is ok (might get you some votes, might not) but that ad is brutal. Its looks cheap productionwise and more importantly you're reinforcing a perception that many voters have that you're jerks.

7 hours ago, Noeller said:

I really and truly believe that the best thing for Canada is a Lib majority. Then some progressive changes on climate change and other stuff can finally be passed. 

He's had all the chances in the world to pass  whatever he wants. The NDP  would have supported any progressive change he wanted to. He is all talk, no action. 

8 hours ago, the watcher said:

He's had all the chances in the world to pass  whatever he wants. The NDP  would have supported any progressive change he wanted to. He is all talk, no action. 

The Liberals are a progressive party in name / lip service only - this has been the case since about 1995. 

I don't think this is the slam dunk that some think it is. Barring a disaster they will be back but :

Reasons the Libs will win a minority

1- Trudeau himself isn't that popular. He lost the popular vote to a weasel of a PC leader last election The Jody Wilson-Raybold fiasco, We scandal, being found unethical 2x, and his personal selection of our previous Gov. General leave a stink on him that wears on his personal likeability. 

2- 1st Nation issues and problems have been at the forefront of the non-covid news.The Libs have been quite ineffectual on making any headway on the many issues they face.

3- Jagmeet Singh has made headway in increasjng his personal appeal to Canadians. 

4-The Bloc haven't shot themselves in the foot

5 - The environment is finally becoming more of a general issue and I'm not sure that they are viewed as very progressive on it. ( not sure on that one)

Reasons they could get a majority :

1-  A fractured PC party with a leader who has not  been able to put it back togeather. That's the biggest  factor in this election. OToole's lack of success at dragging them into this  century pretty much eliminates them from power.

2- Singh is the  most popular party leader but So many people just are to hesitant to actually  vote NDP  and I still don't know if enough of Canada is ready to vote  for a Sikh leader to make a breakthrough. 

But this is no slam dunk for the liberals. 

 

 

Edited August 16, 20214 yr by the watcher

Its an interesting election . Its not really about people switching their votes from liberal to conservative or vise versa .  It's more about how many votes the Bloc and NDP can bleed off or can't.

And how many middle of the pack voters just don't come out to vote. It's not like either the Liberals or Conservatives have been inspirational.  

 

2 hours ago, the watcher said:

Its an interesting election . Its not really about people switching their votes from liberal to conservative or vise versa .  It's more about how many votes the Bloc and NDP can bleed off or can't.

And how many middle of the pack voters just don't come out to vote. It's not like either the Liberals or Conservatives have been inspirational.  

 

The headache for the Liberals is that every vote that gets bled off goes against their total. Dissatisfied Conservatives will still vote Conservative before they vote Liberal or NDP. Dissatisfied Liberals likely won’t vote Conservative, but they will much more easily vote NDP instead. And any Liberal voter in Quebec has the Bloc as another option, but I don’t think Conservative voters are as quick to vote Bloc instead of sticking with their party. 

15 hours ago, Tracker said:

I had heard this was both bad and infantile, but this sets new standards for stupidity. A great start for GOP Canada.

This is not CP quality. Candice Bergen quality yes but not CP quality.

Edited August 16, 20214 yr by FrostyWinnipeg