Doublezero

It’s going to be tough for Bombers to keep Dru Brown without overspending in the QB envelope since we are already paying Collaros $600k in 2024.
But then again, we might have some slight leverage over other teams beyond the fact that Bombers offer an offensive scheme, personnel and culture Brown knows well.
For sure Brown is likely to get multiple offers in the Free Agency tampering window that starts Feb 4 and ends Feb 11. Of course one or two teams will go completely overboard with their offers for Brown.
But, under the new CFLPA agreement, any club that signs one of its pending FAs to an extension can offer to guarantee 50% of the second year money. So, depending on how the deal is structured (signing bonus, hard money, incentives etc) no team other than Winnipeg can offer to GUARANTEE 50% of the 2024 value of Brown’s contract in 2025. That’s a pretty good inducement to stay home, baby.
Explainer: https://3downnation.com/2022/09/28/jake-maier-taylor-cornelius-sign-landmark-partially-guaranteed-cfl-contracts/

It’s going to be tough for Bombers to keep Dru Brown without overspending in the QB envelope since we are already paying Collaros $600k in 2024.
But then again, we might have some slight leverage over other teams beyond the fact that Bombers offer an offensive scheme, personnel and culture Brown knows well.
For sure Brown is likely to get multiple offers in the Free Agency tampering window that starts Feb 4 and ends Feb 11. Of course one or two teams will go completely overboard with their offers for Brown.
But, under the new CFLPA agreement, any club that signs one of its pending FAs to an extension can offer to guarantee 50% of the second year money. So, depending on how the deal is structured (signing bonus, hard money, incentives etc) no team other than Winnipeg can offer to GUARANTEE 50% of the 2024 value of Brown’s contract in 2025. That’s a pretty good inducement to stay home, baby.
Explainer: https://3downnation.com/2022/09/28/jake-maier-taylor-cornelius-sign-landmark-partially-guaranteed-cfl-contracts/

I heard he was a great guy, but obviously not much of an eye for talent. You were a man among boys, you got did dirty, it's a crying shame

Here we are running a dive play called a 44Woodie just before someone tapped me on the shoulder and whispered "coach wants to see you, bring your playbook" which of course meant I got cut. This was '97 camp, and I am moving Shonte Peoples (21) the hell out of the way - Ronald Humphries slipping through the gap. Jeff Reinebold was head coach. Might've been Milt's first season too. Camp was in Portage la Prairie. Chris Vargas and Kevin McDougal at QB along with ugh, the late Cody Ledbetter. 

Regardless of where Dru Brown signs next season (I hope it's the CFL and Winnipeg) how much will he be paid?
There's much speculation there will be multiple bids for his very obvious talent.
Based on this list of top 15 CFL QBs in 2023, where do folks see Brown, a first-year starter, in 2024?

https://3downnation.com/2023/04/17/the-cfls-15-highest-paid-quarterbacks-for-2023-season/

As there might be a bidding war, I see him falling somewhere between Vernon Adams Jr ($350,000) and Taylor Cornelius ($432,000).
It's an interesting list, BC got fair value out of VAJ, I'd say, and Cornelius, among others, way overpaid obviously.
If it were not for the fact that Cornelius is guaranteed 50% of his salary in 2024 - I could see Elks going hard after Brown and just cutting Cornelius altogether.

https://www.tsn.ca/roughriders-agree-to-terms-with-corey-mace-to-be-team-s-new-head-coach-1.2042490
 
Glad Buck is staying.

Very glad to see Kyle, Danny and Ted locked up for 2 more seasons. Pretty obvious from KW's comments that big challenges are at hand. There's little doubt we are going to lose a good number of players to retirement and to free agency. More than in the past few off seasons. No more hometown discounts or players taking haircuts just to stay in Winnipeg. And if we lose Buck, which seems likely, that will immediately diminish the club's ability to fully evaluate everyone on the O side of the ball - O line, QBs, receivers, RB and positional money allocations and priorities there. (Until a new OC is in place). That's why everyone was so upset at losing the Big Game. It was the best last chance.
 
Link to KW's news conference https://www.bluebombers.com/2023/11/29/kyle-walters-november-29/
 

For past couple regular seasons (let alone playoffs) ZC hasn't passed the eye test. Stats-wise, OK, fine. But he's been very inconsistent - are you going to get the good Zach or bad Zach? Downward trajectory especially noticeable when he came back after sitting out couple games with a neck injury Game 10 thanks to what should've been RP by Elks Kony Ealy. But even prior to that Zach was very hot/cold in my opinion. It looked like Buck might've adjusted the playbook after that - taking a more conservative game manager approach that doesn't exactly suit Collaros's style. But it also seemed Zach was taking longer than normal to process things. That could be why Dru Brown had such brilliant success in relief. Much quicker processing time, quicker release, high velocity throws. 

Doubtful. We had mostly 2nd and short thanks to Oliveira - that kind of outstanding ground game makes things hugely easier for your QB. Less is required of him. One could argue BO's routine 6-9 yards gains masked Collaros's shortcomings. Collaros also benefitted from tossing to the best receiving crew in the CFL. That won't necessarily be so next year and that handicap really showed in the Big Game. To me, for whatever reason, Collaros looks like he's routinely facing indecision in the first couple of seconds post-snap. Lot's of folks said he often looked like a deer in the headlights. Why? Because he's taking off to scramble too soon. Why is that happening? Because he's taking too long to process things. Just my opinion but Brown is the better QB right now because, after 3 years in this offence, he makes faster decisions and can put that football at high velocity exactly where it needs to go. 

Doubtful. We had mostly 2nd and short thanks to Oliveira - that kind of outstanding ground game makes things hugely easier for your QB. Less is required of him. One could argue BO's routine 6-9 yards gains masked Collaros's shortcomings. Collaros also benefitted from tossing to the best receiving crew in the CFL. That won't necessarily be so next year and that handicap really showed in the Big Game. To me, for whatever reason, Collaros looks like he's routinely facing indecision in the first couple of seconds post-snap. Lot's of folks said he often looked like a deer in the headlights. Why? Because he's taking off to scramble too soon. Why is that happening? Because he's taking too long to process things. Just my opinion but Brown is the better QB right now because, after 3 years in this offence, he makes faster decisions and can put that football at high velocity exactly where it needs to go. 

For past couple regular seasons (let alone playoffs) ZC hasn't passed the eye test. Stats-wise, OK, fine. But he's been very inconsistent - are you going to get the good Zach or bad Zach? Downward trajectory especially noticeable when he came back after sitting out couple games with a neck injury Game 10 thanks to what should've been RP by Elks Kony Ealy. But even prior to that Zach was very hot/cold in my opinion. It looked like Buck might've adjusted the playbook after that - taking a more conservative game manager approach that doesn't exactly suit Collaros's style. But it also seemed Zach was taking longer than normal to process things. That could be why Dru Brown had such brilliant success in relief. Much quicker processing time, quicker release, high velocity throws. 

For past couple regular seasons (let alone playoffs) ZC hasn't passed the eye test. Stats-wise, OK, fine. But he's been very inconsistent - are you going to get the good Zach or bad Zach? Downward trajectory especially noticeable when he came back after sitting out couple games with a neck injury Game 10 thanks to what should've been RP by Elks Kony Ealy. But even prior to that Zach was very hot/cold in my opinion. It looked like Buck might've adjusted the playbook after that - taking a more conservative game manager approach that doesn't exactly suit Collaros's style. But it also seemed Zach was taking longer than normal to process things. That could be why Dru Brown had such brilliant success in relief. Much quicker processing time, quicker release, high velocity throws. 

I cant imagine a worse scenario than having Dru go on to be a dominant qb in another organization. We need to find a way to keep him.

A Strev Brown combo would work real well actually....pay em both 300k...with start bonuses...and a few incentives.....Sign a rookie entry level guy for the 3rd string spot...would be a net savings overall.....And I'd run multiple combos and sets all game with both on the field at once...Strev in back field...TE...run option with both them....could really create a lot of havoc....Get in his ear now about a contract....and if you get it done you send ZC to the Hammer for their Bennett (or at least the rights to deal with him before FA)...Toss in Erlington an a pick an we forge on
 

Let's project current stats into the future, just for fun. In the same offence, Brown in fact threw 20% as many passes as Collaros in 2023. Based on Collaros's 15 picks, running the same offence, you'd expect Brown to throw 3 picks. But he didn't, he threw 0 interceptions. Meanwhile Collaros threw 33 touchdown passes. Brown threw 9 TD passes. If you extrapolate that based on equal playing time Brown would have thrown 45 touchdowns - far more than any QB in the CFL. The other thing is that Brown has a much quicker release than Collaros, that's a big part of his success.

His last season...sure.
I'm referring more to a few years earlier.  Calvillo did not have a great season in 2007 - you might recall our DL feasting on him
Trestman arrived in Montreal in 2008: they implemented max protect, which worked very well with Calvillo's precise passing
The results speak for themselves: back to back Grey Cups
 
 

Let's project current stats into the future, just for fun. In the same offence, Brown in fact threw 20% as many passes as Collaros in 2023. Based on Collaros's 15 picks, running the same offence, you'd expect Brown to throw 3 picks. But he didn't, he threw 0 interceptions. Meanwhile Collaros threw 33 touchdown passes. Brown threw 9 TD passes. If you extrapolate that based on equal playing time Brown would have thrown 45 touchdowns - far more than any QB in the CFL. The other thing is that Brown has a much quicker release than Collaros, that's a big part of his success.

Could just as easily argue that you don't know what you're going to get with Collaros anymore, who is looking more and more like BLM or Calvillo at the end of their careers. Meantime Dru Brown threw for just under 1000 yards this past season and had the highest overall QB efficiency rating of all the QBs in the CFL - by far. He had a higher pass completion percentage than Collaros - and was second only to Fajardo who thows for an average of 5 yards while Brown threw for average of 11 yards - again, highest in the CFL. Based on numbers alone the guy, who has been mentored here for 3 years, is an outstanding prospect. And when you actually watch him vs Collaros, Brown has better vision, better accuracy, better pocket presence and throwing velocity. It would be irresponsible to let a guy like that get away ... 

But also...people who have been watching QB's forever as well as the numbers are saying this guy is special, and that's not based on the supporting cast because there are plenty of younger QB's who have been handed top teams in the league through the years.
The sample size isn't really that small at this point.  It's about the sample of 8 full games for a QB which is half a season.
People were frothing over Reilly for half as much sample.

Not many comparables to Dru Brown's first 150 passes though historically.  Collaros about 30 points lower in QBR and quadruple the turnovers...was playing on defending Grey Cup champs.  Reilly had half as much playing time it his first go round with BC before he was the guy in Edmonton and was about 25 points lower in QBR, again playing on a Grey Cup team.  Bo Levi almost 30 points lower through same point of his career, double the turnovers again playing on 12 and 14 win teams.  So the "YEAH BUT THE BOMBERS ARE AWESOME SO DRU BROWN MEANS NOTHING" argument is kind of moot in these comparisons.
We might be in a CFL type of Alex Smith - Pat Mahomes situation.  Obviously a lot more variables in the CFL.
 

So... you think Collaros ends up in Sask again?
 
 
 
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Let's project current stats into the future, just for fun. In the same offence, Brown in fact threw 20% as many passes as Collaros in 2023. Based on Collaros's 15 picks, running the same offence, you'd expect Brown to throw 3 picks. But he didn't, he threw 0 interceptions. Meanwhile Collaros threw 33 touchdown passes. Brown threw 9 TD passes. If you extrapolate that based on equal playing time Brown would have thrown 45 touchdowns - far more than any QB in the CFL. The other thing is that Brown has a much quicker release than Collaros, that's a big part of his success.

Could just as easily argue that you don't know what you're going to get with Collaros anymore, who is looking more and more like BLM or Calvillo at the end of their careers. Meantime Dru Brown threw for just under 1000 yards this past season and had the highest overall QB efficiency rating of all the QBs in the CFL - by far. He had a higher pass completion percentage than Collaros - and was second only to Fajardo who thows for an average of 5 yards while Brown threw for average of 11 yards - again, highest in the CFL. Based on numbers alone the guy, who has been mentored here for 3 years, is an outstanding prospect. And when you actually watch him vs Collaros, Brown has better vision, better accuracy, better pocket presence and throwing velocity. It would be irresponsible to let a guy like that get away ... 

Let's project current stats into the future, just for fun. In the same offence, Brown in fact threw 20% as many passes as Collaros in 2023. Based on Collaros's 15 picks, running the same offence, you'd expect Brown to throw 3 picks. But he didn't, he threw 0 interceptions. Meanwhile Collaros threw 33 touchdown passes. Brown threw 9 TD passes. If you extrapolate that based on equal playing time Brown would have thrown 45 touchdowns - far more than any QB in the CFL. The other thing is that Brown has a much quicker release than Collaros, that's a big part of his success.

It’s a small sample size, and if not for the Edmonton game and Collaros age, I’d agree with you 100%
You’re coming from a more logical place. I just can’t shake this feeling that we’re going to see Brown win multiple cups, either here or somewhere else. Thought it since his first start in 2022.