https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

 

re: single game betting........

 

7 hours ago, Noeller said:

Naylor reporting that there'll be a conference call on June 14th to decide whether to kickoff August 5th. The only thing that might be a hiccup is the assholes in Toronto and Montreal, but hopefully the government will give enough guarantees re: fans in the stands, to get them on board. Players sure sound like they're coming to town in a couple weeks and getting ready for TC....

i don't think it has to be unanimous, does it?

1 hour ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

i don't think it has to be unanimous, does it?

Naylor actually said he's not sure on that.... So I guess we'll see! 

I truly hope that if TO and MTL don't want to play, the league moves on without them. Not sure if it's possible or if the rumors of those teams not wanting to play are true. But it's become apparent that no CFL in 2021 means no CFL.

16 minutes ago, Bigblue204 said:

I truly hope that if TO and MTL don't want to play, the league moves on without them. Not sure if it's possible or if the rumors of those teams not wanting to play are true. But it's become apparent that no CFL in 2021 means no CFL.

I'm not sure what that would do to the TSN/RDS contract though. 

Well if the Argos left then any chance of a Sportsnet rights bidding war is gone. 

2 hours ago, Bigblue204 said:

I truly hope that if TO and MTL don't want to play, the league moves on without them. Not sure if it's possible or if the rumors of those teams not wanting to play are true. But it's become apparent that no CFL in 2021 means no CFL.

Tell em to go pound sand if they don't want to play. Don't **** the rest of us over. They can't get fans in the stands anyway so what's the difference?

13 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

Tell em to go pound sand if they don't want to play. Don't **** the rest of us over. They can't get fans in the stands anyway so what's the difference?

Sadly, in a league where TV revenues account for such a large amount of the profits, the perception of losing 11 million eyeballs makes a big difference. 

I saw a thing on Twitter last night where one of the beat writers was saying that the unreleased new schedule apparently has Edmonton vs Ottawa on Aug 7 as one of the first games, and I stopped and went "What I wouldn't give right now to watch something as meaningless to me as Edmonton vs Ottawa CFL game right now...." I'm just so ******* excited about an upcoming season. I will watch every second of every game that I can. As nice as it was to have hockey, I'm just not THAT big of a hockey fan....but CFL......my Christ, I will never take it for granted again. 

10 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Sadly, in a league where TV revenues account for such a large amount of the profits, the perception of losing 11 million eyeballs makes a big difference. 

I get that, but how many actually tune in? I wonder what the count looks like country wide. Like where do the majority of viewers live? 

5 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I saw a thing on Twitter last night where one of the beat writers was saying that the unreleased new schedule apparently has Edmonton vs Ottawa on Aug 7 as one of the first games, and I stopped and went "What I wouldn't give right now to watch something as meaningless to me as Edmonton vs Ottawa CFL game right now...." I'm just so ******* excited about an upcoming season. I will watch every second of every game that I can. As nice as it was to have hockey, I'm just not THAT big of a hockey fan....but CFL......my Christ, I will never take it for granted again. 

Amen 

I am pumped to watch Blue Bomber ball.  Hopefully y'all get vaccinated so I can watch with you in the stands at IGF!

#forthew

 

 

I know it seems silly. I live in Manitoba and watch the Jays, and the best rated games are western match-ups, but as I said the PERCEPTION of losing Toronto and all the corporate offices in advertising that might be lost scares the league. Can’t think of any other reason why they cling to such a failing franchise. 

I watched the last bit of the Eastern final yesterday as it was on TSN. It's amazing in hindsight just how confident hammy was. Some highlights from interviews right after the game, Banks was going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Simoni just wanted to get to the cup and win it already. And Coach O always had their team ready. lol.

I can't wait for the season!!!

4 hours ago, Noeller said:

I saw a thing on Twitter last night where one of the beat writers was saying that the unreleased new schedule apparently has Edmonton vs Ottawa on Aug 7 as one of the first games, and I stopped and went "What I wouldn't give right now to watch something as meaningless to me as Edmonton vs Ottawa CFL game right now...." I'm just so ******* excited about an upcoming season. I will watch every second of every game that I can. As nice as it was to have hockey, I'm just not THAT big of a hockey fan....but CFL......my Christ, I will never take it for granted again. 

You know those Saturdays where they have 3 games back to back to back? I would love one of those right about now. 

9 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

You know those Saturdays where they have 3 games back to back to back? I would love one of those right about now. 

Edited June 9, 20214 yr by Noeller

5 hours ago, 17to85 said:

Tell em to go pound sand if they don't want to play. Don't **** the rest of us over. They can't get fans in the stands anyway so what's the difference?

My son knows Vernon Adams in Seattle. He said Adams told him he's leaving for Montreal in 2 weeks to play. So, take that for what it's worth.

1 hour ago, 17to85 said:

You know those Saturdays where they have 3 games back to back to back? I would love one of those right about now. 

We get excited because in the CFL we have a very good chance of winning a Grey cup championship. In the NHL it is the opposite. From impact free agent players not wanting to be here to players leaving when their contract is up, it's like we have no chance as there's always huge holes to fill. That's the difference between the CFL & NHL.

My concern right now is that they get the season rolling and then B1617 takes hold and everything has to be shut down again. Things are really trending badly right now in the Variants vs Vaxxes race... 

1 hour ago, Noeller said:

My concern right now is that they get the season rolling and then B1617 takes hold and everything has to be shut down again. Things are really trending badly right now in the Variants vs Vaxxes race... 

I think it's way too early to worry about that now.

My worry is that politicians will open it up too soon yet again and we'll end up with yet another wave. Folks need both shots, not just one, especially for the newest variants. That being said, I think the vote this weekend will be to go ahead with an August start.

37 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

My worry is that politicians will open it up too soon yet again and we'll end up with yet another wave. Folks need both shots, not just one, especially for the newest variants. That being said, I think the vote this weekend will be to go ahead with an August start.

Agreed, politicians need to heed the advice of the experts and open up in a responsible manner.

3 hours ago, TBURGESS said:

My worry is that politicians will open it up too soon yet again and we'll end up with yet another wave. Folks need both shots, not just one, especially for the newest variants. That being said, I think the vote this weekend will be to go ahead with an August start.

The league will vote to start in August. That's my feeling. Too many negative things will be thrust upon Toronto & Montreal if they don't play & the others do. The embarrassment they'll bring to the league & bad will they'll show with the "Eff You Go Shove It" middle finger to everyone will be remembered for a long time. If those teams don't play it'll affect advertising revenues. So watch TSN try to screw over the other 7 teams by saying the value of the tv contract is less with the country's 2 biggest markets no longer represented. What happens to the contracts of the players on those 2 teams? Both the Argos & Als would probably have to pay their players I'd think or they'd become free agents. If so, I can see individual players demanding they be released so they can play elsewhere. I can see lawsuits by individual players & the CFLPA. Perhaps other teams even sue. Does Toronto & Montreal really want that?

Reckon this is some more good news......

https://www.sportsnet.ca/cfl/article/government-reviewing-cfls-request-modified-quarantine-2021-season/

 

The CFL has cleared two more hurdles in its quest to return to the field in 2021.

An official with the Public Health Agency of Canada told The Canadian Press the federal government has received the CFL’s request for a national interest exemption for modified quarantine for the upcoming season. The official added Ottawa is reviewing it in consultation with provincial health authorities.

 

 

The inclusion of negotiations with Ottawa, in addition to previous talks with provincial health authorities, is a big step in the right direction for the league as it attempts to return to the field for the first time since 2019.

Essentially, the CFL is asking Ottawa to provide it with the same exemptions it has for the NHL. The federal government waived its mandatory 14-day quarantine period for players acquired by Canadian NHL teams from American clubs "under national interest grounds" ahead of the league’s April 12 trade deadline.

Under those terms, CFL players would observe a seven-day quarantine upon arrival into Canada and be subject to daily testing for COVID-19. Players would be eligible to suit up for their teams while continuing to undergo daily testing the following week.

Another positive step is the ratification of an amended collective bargaining agreement between the CFL and CFL Players’ Association. Three sources told The Canadian Press the two sides have reached an agreement in principle on an amended deal, which would again pave the way for football to return in 2021.

The sources were granted anonymity because the deal has not publicly announced.

The CFL didn’t stage a 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The league shelved plans for an abbreviated campaign last August after failing to secure a $30-million, interest-free loan from the Canadian government.

Last November, the CFL unveiled plans for a full 18-game 2021 regular season. But in April, commissioner Randy Ambrosie announced the league was delaying the start of the ’21 season to Aug. 5 and reducing the number of games played to 14 per team.

The next big step for an Aug. 5 return is a board of governors meeting on Monday.

 

The board doesn’t require unanimous support to accept the Aug. 5 start but seven of nine teams would have to vote in favour as the CFL constitution requires over two-thirds majority. However, it’s unknown if the constitution could force teams to play and incur significant financial losses simply because a majority wants to go ahead with a season.

The fear is that could force a situation where a team voting against the Aug. 5 startup date would simply refuse to play if the remainder of the board votes in favour of beginning a season in early August. That scenario could result in very serious implications regarding league transfer moneys as well as the CFL’s broadcast agreement and league’s ’21 schedule.

Not playing in 2020 came at a significant cost to the CFL. A source has said the league lost between $60-and-$80 million last year by not staging games.

The source has been granted anonymity because the CFL has never revealed its 2020 financial figures.

Another factor, too, is the possibility of fans. The CFL wants to have a "significant" amount of fans in the stands. However, the Ontario government hasn’t signed off on that, and three of the league’s franchises are based in the province (Toronto, Hamilton and Ottawa).

But an Aug. 5 kickoff would see all four East Division teams opening the season with a series of road games in Western Canada. The hope would be that once they were slated to return home that some fans would be allowed in the Ontario stadiums.

A TSN report earlier this week said a committee representing seven of Ontario’s seven pro franchises (Argos, Ticats, Redblacks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Raptors, Toronto FC and Toronto Blue Jays) submitted a report to the Ontario government. The report said the committee was looking for 35 per cent of stadium capacity for Ontario’s second stage re-opening and up to full capacity for the third stage.

"We will continue to work with our stakeholders as well as our public health experts at the provincial and local levels to determine when and if it is safe for measures to be lifted, including when other professional sports leagues may return to play," Ontario’s Heritage, Sport and Tourism ministry said in a statement to The Canadian Press.

 

The first stage in Ontario’s re-opening is scheduled to start Friday. The province will remain at each step for at least 21 days to evaluate any impacts on key public health and health system indicators.

The earliest date for the second stage would be July 2, with July 23 the earliest for stage 3.