Only 2.5 months to go

 

Need to change it so next election they have to work into the summer. Too much time off.

Sounds smart!

Despite a week of headlines from the Mike Duffy trial, questions over energy projects, and worrying economic reports, the parties showed little change in their national numbers, according to the latest Nanos Research weekly ballot tracking.

Here are the latest numbers, with the percentage-point change from the previous week in brackets:

Conservatives: 30.1 per cent (-1.7)

Liberals: 29.9 per cent (+1.2)

NDP: 29.1 per cent (+0.1)

@kkirkup: CIBC hints #NDP win could hurt markets http://t.co/a56jYtc7Nn#elxn42 #cdnpoli

@charlesadler: 1/4 Let's tell the Truth: Despite all the #Duffy Shmuffy, Conservatives still favourites to retain power after Oct 19th #Elxn42 #CdnPoli

@charlesadler: 3/4 New #Nanos poll shows #NDP dropping like a stone in Ont with only 21%. The #CPC nearly doubles them at 40%. The #LPC has 32% #elxn42

Who believes these poll numbers? #yoyo

Who believes these poll numbers? #yoyo

A lot of people.  But I get your point.  Its a long election.  These polls will be the indicator of the national mood, rightly or wrongly.  They might also dictate media coverage, depending on how they go.  And they will surely dictate how the parties campaign (based on their own polling).

 

Its fascinating that the polls (rightly or wrongly) are calling this a dead heat.  If anything, the Duffy trial should have badly hurt Conservative support.  The mainstream media has been pushing the Anti-Harper narrative a lot and it hasnt taken hold.  I almost wonder if people are just really entrenched.

 

Im sure there are many here smarter then me when it comes to the finer details of polling.  What is the thought process here?  Where will the swings come from?  What has to happen to give the NDP the victory?  Liberals the victory?  Cons the victory?

The fact that the polls have had the 3 parties at pretty similar levels of support makes them pretty meaningless. It's going to depend on who gets votes in what ridings and how many seats everyone gets. This is an area the Conservatives understand really really well and they do a lot of targetting of specific ridings to ensure they get seats. A slight lead for one party doesn't necessarily translate into a win on election night if the other party has enough seats. Either way we're likely looking at a minority government which means a few more years of fighting and bitching and painting the other guys as the devil incarnate. 

. Either way we're likely looking at a minority government which means a few more years of fighting and bitching and painting the other guys as the devil incarnate. 

 

Isn't this what happens even when there is a majority?

It's not like the Cons aren't trying for that majority, what with the electoral redistributions. With the newly drawn electoral districts, the Cons would pick up an extra 22 seats when transposed in the new districts. 

Gee, I wonder whose idea this was for the re-distribution?

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/07/20/Harpers-Tories-Winning-Bet/

 

The Cons are also putting $1.2 Billion of taxpayer's money into local improvement projects….the vast majority into mainly Conservative ridings. $839 million, to be exact.

This isn't new, of course, but wasn't it Harper who called out the Liberals, promising an end to political corruption, (pork-barreling is one element of it) and yet here they are...

 

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/08/05/harpers-pork-a-palooza-a-disgrace

 

. Either way we're likely looking at a minority government which means a few more years of fighting and bitching and painting the other guys as the devil incarnate. 

 

Isn't this what happens even when there is a majority?

 

Less so actually, this last majority was a bit of an anomaly. The Liberals and NDP were just sooooo salty about the fact that Canadians didn't believe their little vote about the Conservatives being in contempt of parliament and gave them a majority. Remember folks, the NDP and Liberals know what Canadians want better than Canadians do.

It's not like the Cons aren't trying for that majority, what with the electoral redistributions. With the newly drawn electoral districts, the Cons would pick up an extra 22 seats when transposed in the new districts. 

Gee, I wonder whose idea this was for the re-distribution?

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/07/20/Harpers-Tories-Winning-Bet/

 

The Cons are also putting $1.2 Billion of taxpayer's money into local improvement projects….the vast majority into mainly Conservative ridings. $839 million, to be exact.

This isn't new, of course, but wasn't it Harper who called out the Liberals, promising an end to political corruption, (pork-barreling is one element of it) and yet here they are...

 

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/08/05/harpers-pork-a-palooza-a-disgrace

I've seen thetyee linked a few places, every time I don't look at the url and click on a link I'm shown a heavily biased piece that cares less about facts and more about an idea that left wing is better than right wing. It's not an unbiased source and it often skews facts to suit their argument. 

The numbers are still there, those are facts. Just because you don't like how they're presented doesn't mean they aren't relevant. And aren't you doing the same thing of slanting your words to suit your bias?

Are we pretending that the Liberals didnt do things that benefited them when in power? 

 

Anyway... one poll last week showed the Cons winning based on seat victories.  If their polling numbers stay strong, one would suspect that happens.  Im not sure a Conservative minority would be a good thing, though likely pretty interesting.  I dont doubt the Liberals and NDP would consider an alliance.  And Im not sure of Harper's future if they fall to a minority.

 

Hopefully its a majority.  But its still too early to tell.

The numbers are still there, those are facts. Just because you don't like how they're presented doesn't mean they aren't relevant. And aren't you doing the same thing of slanting your words to suit your bias?

How things are presented absolutely matters. If you display an obvious biased when presenting data it's impossible to take seriously. I didn't read the link you posted, I won't read anything from that source because I don't consider it a good source. It's mostly good for a left wing back slapping session. 

 

Are we pretending that the Liberals didnt do things that benefited them when in power? 

 

Anyway... one poll last week showed the Cons winning based on seat victories.  If their polling numbers stay strong, one would suspect that happens.  Im not sure a Conservative minority would be a good thing, though likely pretty interesting.  I dont doubt the Liberals and NDP would consider an alliance.  And Im not sure of Harper's future if they fall to a minority.

 

Hopefully its a majority.  But its still too early to tell.

 

I am pretty sure this is the last election Harper is leading the Conservatives through regardless of what happens. 

 

The numbers are still there, those are facts. Just because you don't like how they're presented doesn't mean they aren't relevant. And aren't you doing the same thing of slanting your words to suit your bias?

How things are presented absolutely matters. If you display an obvious biased when presenting data it's impossible to take seriously. I didn't read the link you posted, I won't read anything from that source because I don't consider it a good source. It's mostly good for a left wing back slapping session. 

 

Are we pretending that the Liberals didnt do things that benefited them when in power? 

 

Anyway... one poll last week showed the Cons winning based on seat victories.  If their polling numbers stay strong, one would suspect that happens.  Im not sure a Conservative minority would be a good thing, though likely pretty interesting.  I dont doubt the Liberals and NDP would consider an alliance.  And Im not sure of Harper's future if they fall to a minority.

 

Hopefully its a majority.  But its still too early to tell.

 

I am pretty sure this is the last election Harper is leading the Conservatives through regardless of what happens. 

 

Oh I agree.  I actually had that conversation with my mom.  She said Harper will never step down.  NEVER? lol  Ofcourse he will.  If he can get the Cons one more majority, he will step down in year 3 and let a new leader establish himself.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/national-post-editorial-board-thomas-mulcairs-shameful-hypocritical-silence

http://vipmedia.globalnews.ca/2015/08/seat-projections-august-25.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&strip=all

If the Conservatives get a majority, Harper serves two years and then allows two years to his successor. If the Cons get a minority, maybe a year or so. If the NDP get a minority, he's likely gone before Christmas.

Interesting that Mulcair says the NDP will not run deficits... he's promising an awful lot of spending so that tells me it's higher taxes to pay for all of that, wonder why he's not mentioning that in all these promises. Corporate taxes and high income tax brackets can't pay for all the stuff he's promising.... 

Interesting that Mulcair says the NDP will not run deficits... he's promising an awful lot of spending so that tells me it's higher taxes to pay for all of that, wonder why he's not mentioning that in all these promises. Corporate taxes and high income tax brackets can't pay for all the stuff he's promising.... 

 

Interesting that Mulcair says the NDP will not run deficits... he's promising an awful lot of spending so that tells me it's higher taxes to pay for all of that, wonder why he's not mentioning that in all these promises. Corporate taxes and high income tax brackets can't pay for all the stuff he's promising.... 

Why mention raising taxes, just hope people are dumb?

 

Hey, why not more stories on how JT's plan is exactly like McGinty's in Ontario, down to the same team running it for him?

 

I've seen thetyee linked a few places, every time I don't look at the url and click on a link I'm shown a heavily biased piece that cares less about facts and more about an idea that left wing is better than right wing. It's not an unbiased source and it often skews facts to suit their argument. 

 

 

The Tyee is the Fox News of leftist news reporting.  Just a union-funded propaganda arm of the NDP.  Anyone who links to their vomit I immediately just discard as a Leninist moron.  Except for Mr. Dee, he's all right.

A lot of chatter about how Mulcair is a conservative hiding in socialist clothing. But the best reply I saw was "no he's just a hypocrit who will say anything to gain power".

Lower small business tax. Increased spending. No deficit while accusing harper of unable to balance the budget and we're about to slip into another recession. It all screams "tax increase"

I think their plan is to get elected and then claim the cons took us into a recession so all bets are off. Ie deficit.

Harper seems to be zeroing in on swing ridings. The same way Obama focussed on key electoral vote States during his last campaign.

Harper seems to be zeroing in on swing ridings. The same way Obama focussed on key electoral vote States during his last campaign.

Indeed.

 

Ontario is going to be huge. BC too.

 If you display an obvious biased when presenting data it's impossible to take seriously.

 

 

That's a good take on most people posting in this thread.

@CTVNews: NDP leader Tom Mulcair 'not entertaining any thought' of running a deficit http://t.co/Hc6VylqNCb#elxn42 http://t.co/bfVGYLCv7U