https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

6 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

I don’t know how anyone could expect more concrete plans from the league with all the uncertainty surrounding every other aspect of life in each province right now. Target date is still August 5. By mid-July of training camps show no sign of opening then we may have an idea that things are being pushed back. And as always, dependent on Health Canada, not what the league decides to announce or not announce. 

We had more of a tentative plan last year.  Waiting for the last minute to have specifics all ironed out as much as possible is flirting with disaster. 

4 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Cue me blaming Randy "Scarf Boy" Ambrosie in 4... 3... 2... 1.... It just seems so natural to do so. 

 

 

17 minutes ago, Noeller said:

 

 

Not too surprising. Lalji and Dave Naylor were driving the bus for the XFL expansion from a media standpoint by all appearances, so he would be supportive of a commish pushing that agenda. 

Edited May 29, 20214 yr by TrueBlue4ever

Holy hell is this forum quiet 

1 hour ago, CodyT said:

Holy hell is this forum quiet 

Edited May 31, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

I'M HERE!! 

 

Desperately begging for any CFL news. Still extremely confident in a CFL season starting in August....Labour Day at the VERY latest. Als and Argos holding a lot of things up because they'd rather not play, but are sort of going along with the rest, for now. 

1 minute ago, Noeller said:

I'M HERE!! 

 

Desperately begging for any CFL news. Still extremely confident in a CFL season starting in August....Labour Day at the VERY latest. Als and Argos holding a lot of things up because they'd rather not play, but are sort of going along with the rest, for now. 

The one comment I have been thinking about lately is that somebody said the single game betting could pretty much make the CFL a profitable business. Does this mean potentially the CFL is safe from the XFL and will we still be in grave financial danger?

 

Is the CFL more likely to recover on its own now, and I'd so, how much more likely?

Nobody knows the answer to that yet, but the single game betting thing needs to happen. It's passed a lot of hurdles, but still has a couple of readings to go before it's officially good to go. Absolutely HAS to get approved before they shut down for the summer....

Its down to the 3rd and final reading in the senate I thought which is a close as you can come to being law. CFL is going to have to be a lot more forth coming with injuries if they are going to embrace single game betting. In the NFL they have pretty informative injury reports that are sent out every day during the week leading up to a game. A upper and lower body designation is not going to fly with no clear understanding if they are questionable, doubtful or out. I am surprised nobody in the media has mentioned this. 

28 minutes ago, CodyT said:

The one comment I have been thinking about lately is that somebody said the single game betting could pretty much make the CFL a profitable business. Does this mean potentially the CFL is safe from the XFL and will we still be in grave financial danger?

 

Is the CFL more likely to recover on its own now, and I'd so, how much more likely?

I've read that estimates of only about 1-2 million per team which would help but not turn the Big 3 profitable. They'd still be losing lots of money. The tv contract needs to be rdone to refelect the advertising $$$ & revenues coming in. Teams need more money. I believe that TSN & Bell are sitting on the profits.

37 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I've read that estimates of only about 1-2 million per team which would help but not turn the Big 3 profitable. They'd still be losing lots of money. The tv contract needs to be rdone to refelect the advertising $$$ & revenues coming in. Teams need more money. I believe that TSN & Bell are sitting on the profits.

I wonder how much money the big 3 are really losing at times when they are well run?

12 minutes ago, Colin Unger said:

I wonder how much money the big 3 are really losing at times when they are well run?

One to 2 million helps but it doesn't make the problems go away. There are virtually no other revenue streams in a country with 37 million people, an aging ticket base & half the country doesn't care. The Tv deal sucks. Putting the CFL solely on a cable network & keeping it there has been a huge mistake. The networks don't want the CFL now. The league totally screwed up. They might have been able to get back on CTV or CBC 10 years ago as ratings were shooting up & Ottawa came back into the league but decided to stay with TSN. Probably too late now.

Edited May 31, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

But would anyone want to see a bidding war between TSN and Sportsnet for the CFL of the end result was a Sportsnet product that is as inferior as their NHL coverage is? Maybe so since this league needs the money badly, but not sure I would want a Sportsnet panel of Arash Masani, Jessy Ferguson, and Marty York covering the games. 

12 minutes ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

But would anyone want to see a bidding war between TSN and Sportsnet for the CFL of the end result was a Sportsnet product that is as inferior as their NHL coverage is? Maybe so since this league needs the money badly, but not sure I would want a Sportsnet panel of Arash Masani, Jessy Ferguson, and Marty York covering the games. 

If the CFL can generate more revenue on Sportsnet, I'm all for it. I'd like to see the CFL back on CBC. I think there'd be room for it on saturday afternnons or Sundays. Or maybe on Thursdsay nights. The ship has sailed on CTV as they are into the NFL. And there was bad blood between the CFL & CTV  with former Sports President & longtime CFL supporter Johnny Esaw who vowed the CFL would never, ever ever be on CTV again. He was livid they started the CFL Network to televise games in 1986 for 1 season. As well as (ironically) the CFL's refusal to develop Friday Night Football on CTV. Esaw was pushing hard for it & the CFL braintrust at the time felt it was a bad idea. So, CTV walked away from CFL broadcasts & never came back. This is the kind of pea brained thinking the CFL is famous for & why I question just televising games on a cable network & not seeing if there might have been more revenue getting back on network television.

Not sure. If I recall, CBC gutted pretty much all of its sports coverage save for HNIC because it was not profitable for them. And CTV had been virtually sport absent. I am not talking about just televising a sport (yes CTV has the NFL) but rather their own broadcast productions. Not sure how much it costs to put together your own broadcast (cameras, directors, producers, on air talent) but I suspect the reason they pick up the NFL in part is that they only pay rights fees and do not have to worry about production costs. Now with hockey or the NFL, those production costs are offset by advertising rates for a massively popular product, but the CFL may not create a good enough return on the investment to dive into. But a 24 hour sports network is more in need of a tent pole program to build their brand, so they invest. Again, I don’t know the hard numbers so I am just spitballing here. Anyone with better insight?

4 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

One to 2 million helps but it doesn't make the problems go away. There are virtually no other revenue streams in a country with 37 million people, an aging ticket base & half the country doesn't care. The Tv deal sucks. Putting the CFL solely on a cable network & keeping it there has been a huge mistake. The networks don't want the CFL now. The league totally screwed up. They might have been able to get back on CTV or CBC 10 years ago as ratings were shooting up & Ottawa came back into the league but decided to stay with TSN. Probably too late now.

I'm not convinced it was that dire.  When I go to bombers games I see a lot of young people there. The vast majority are young I would say. Its got a party like atmosphere.  It doesn't get the young kids like goldeyes but once those kids become drinking age the bombers games is where they go. CBC has been more and more moving away from sports broadcasts I believe due to budget cuts. Last time i checked i was typically tuning into Sportsnet or TSN to watch Jets games. Ratings aren't really the issue for the CFL. The CFL offers good ratings and a loyal viewerbase who turn off their netflix and actually dust off their cable box when a game is on. The only thing cable has going for it these days is sporting events. What remains to be seen is what the reaction will be once we are finally allowed to leave our homes again. Will people stick with their new habits of staying at home or will people be so sick of staying at home and watching TV that sports attendance ends up getting a boost. 

If a team is  losing three or 4 million a year how is an extra 2 million going to help? They lose 2 million & everybody's happy?? The extra revenue helps but not enough. The situation is dire. How could you say it's not. The CFL collectively lost $80 million. That's an average of $8.8 million per team. So gambling revenues of $2 million would bring that loss down to $6.8 million. The league is dead.

Sort of random but, if you cut the cord, you can subscribe to TSN for 6 months for 40% off. $60 for 6 months and you can catch all the Euros starting in June. Deal runs until June 30th, so you can wait until the end of the month to subscribe. 

Edited June 1, 20214 yr by JCon

 

37 minutes ago, JCon said:

 

I feel like this has been in the lurch for a long time now. I also feel like its going to be panned no matter what. But if its the Edmonton football club with an EE logo it will be panned harder than any other out come. 

Just now, wbbfan said:

I feel like this has been in the lurch for a long time now. I also feel like its going to be panned no matter what. But if its the Edmonton football club with an EE logo it will be panned harder than any other out come. 

I think it should be the Elk. To me, that makes the most sense. 

 

And, as an added bonus, they can sell the Elk burger. Made of from elk meat? No, beef. Just for lolz. 

Just now, JCon said:

I think it should be the Elk. To me, that makes the most sense. 

 

And, as an added bonus, they can sell the Elk burger. Made of from elk meat? No, beef. Just for lolz. 

Its the best of the options they were looking at last I heard. Edmonton oilers LLOOOOOOOOOOOL!

It appears to be Edmonton Elks without the EE logo? 🤔

18 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

If the CFL can generate more revenue on Sportsnet, I'm all for it. I'd like to see the CFL back on CBC. I think there'd be room for it on saturday afternnons or Sundays. Or maybe on Thursdsay nights. The ship has sailed on CTV as they are into the NFL. And there was bad blood between the CFL & CTV  with former Sports President & longtime CFL supporter Johnny Esaw who vowed the CFL would never, ever ever be on CTV again. He was livid they started the CFL Network to televise games in 1986 for 1 season. As well as (ironically) the CFL's refusal to develop Friday Night Football on CTV. Esaw was pushing hard for it & the CFL braintrust at the time felt it was a bad idea. So, CTV walked away from CFL broadcasts & never came back. This is the kind of pea brained thinking the CFL is famous for & why I question just televising games on a cable network & not seeing if there might have been more revenue getting back on network television.

Ctv and tsn are one and the same so no point in even discussing a difference there. Sportsnet I think is regretting spending like drunken sailors on the nhl and cbc doesn't want to spend much money on sports. The situation in Canada is not great for getting a big TV deal in my opinion.

well at least the logo looks good