https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

2 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

I don't think we are through with the pandemic at all. The Covidiots will keep it going way longer than it needs to. The current vaccines will protect folks against the current strain(s), but we'll likely need to get a yearly vaccination to keep it at bay. We don't know how long the current vaccine will keep us safe especially when we are ignoring the science when it comes to time between doses.

Trudeau, the younger, is still talking about everyone will be vaccinated by the end of September. In political talk, that's one shot. In reality, it take two to get above 70-80% protected. Add in the 20% who won't get vaccinated at all, and we're in this for a long time IMO.

The idea that we'll all get back to the same normal as we used to have is based on hopes and dreams. We'll get back to a new normal with vaccine cards to get into places and to travel and a yearly outbreak that will mostly replace the flu outbreaks. The 3.4 million deaths worldwide including the 25,000 Canadian families who've lost a loved one will never forget this once in a hundred year pandemic. It's scar will remain for a generation or more.

That's a lie that we've proven to you over and over. End of September will have two vaccines for everyone who wants one. 

Everyone 12+ in Manitoba, who wants a vaccine, will likely have one by June 9th. 

4 hours ago, Noeller said:

I fully believe that once we get through this current wave of the pandemic, we're going to be through it for good. People will be vaccinated to protect us against future waves. Manitoba is the last province to see the crest of the wave, and once they're through it, things are going to look pretty good across the country. We'll start looking like the States are right now. I really believe that's about a month or two away. Labour Day CFL start is still very much in play, if not a certainty....

Your lips to God's ear. We all live in hope of a better day to come.

4 hours ago, JCon said:

That's a lie that we've proven to you over and over. End of September will have two vaccines for everyone who wants one. 

Everyone 12+ in Manitoba, who wants a vaccine, will likely have one by June 9th. 

Saying it isn't proving it. Even if everyone in Manitoba over 12 who wants a vaccine gets one by June 9th, that's only one province, only one shot, and only 70-80% vaccinated. Will there be a vaccination card by June 9th too? If not, no proof of vaccination too.

From May 14: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has promised that everyone who wants to can be fully vaccinated by September, this week spoke of a "one-dose summer" and a "two-dose fall" without explaining what that might look like. (https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-plots-course-fully-vaccinated-return-gatherings-fall-2021-05-14/)

4% of the adult population in Canada is fully vaccinated. (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/)

47.8% of Manitoba +12's have 1 vaccination as of today. (https://www.gov.mb.ca/covid19/vaccine/index.html) I doubt that doubles in the next 3 weeks. Fully immunized in Manitoba = 7.1% as of May 20. No way that goes up to 75-80% in 3 weeks.

That's what 'proof' looks like. Data, supported by sources.

Edited May 21, 20214 yr by TBURGESS

20 hours ago, TBURGESS said:

I don't think we are through with the pandemic at all. The Covidiots will keep it going way longer than it needs to. The current vaccines will protect folks against the current strain(s), but we'll likely need to get a yearly vaccination to keep it at bay. We don't know how long the current vaccine will keep us safe especially when we are ignoring the science when it comes to time between doses.

Trudeau, the younger, is still talking about everyone will be vaccinated by the end of September. In political talk, that's one shot. In reality, it take two to get above 70-80% protected. Add in the 20% who won't get vaccinated at all, and we're in this for a long time IMO.

The idea that we'll all get back to the same normal as we used to have is based on hopes and dreams. We'll get back to a new normal with vaccine cards to get into places and to travel and a yearly outbreak that will mostly replace the flu outbreaks. The 3.4 million deaths worldwide including the 25,000 Canadian families who've lost a loved one will never forget this once in a hundred year pandemic. It's scar will remain for a generation or more.

I agree with everything you say. I'm a little more optimistic that outbreaks may not be as bad if most people are vaccinated. Hospitals shouldn't be overwhelmed so people may not get as sick. I'm also hopeful that like the Spanish Flu, it will eventually die out. I believe the Spanish Flu is still among us but after a century it has weakened considerably weaker than it was. 

7 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I agree with everything you say. I'm a little more optimistic that outbreaks may not be as bad if most people are vaccinated. Hospitals shouldn't be overwhelmed so people may not get as sick. I'm also hopeful that like the Spanish Flu, it will eventually die out. I believe the Spanish Flu is still among us but after a century it has weakened considerably weaker than it was. 

We'll eventually get to herd immunity, but 70% if people get vaccinated then almost a third of the population is still unvaccinated. That's more than 10 million, mostly Covidiots, in Canada alone. That means it will stay around in pretty big numbers for years and it pisses me off because it doesn't need to happen. We could get to the 95+% mark if the Governments would simply tell people that they have to be vaccinated. They could make it mandatory to carry a vaccine card to get into any large scale event and to travel, even province to province, but they won't do it because popularity is more important to them than the safety of the population.

FTR: Latest CDC data says 1 shot of Moderna or Pfizer is 80% effective and at least 1 fully vaccinated Manitoban has died of Covid.

3 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

We'll eventually get to herd immunity, but 70% if people get vaccinated then almost a third of the population is still unvaccinated. That's more than 10 million, mostly Covidiots, in Canada alone. That means it will stay around in pretty big numbers for years and it pisses me off because it doesn't need to happen. We could get to the 95+% mark if the Governments would simply tell people that they have to be vaccinated. They could make it mandatory to carry a vaccine card to get into any large scale event and to travel, even province to province, but they won't do it because popularity is more important to them than the safety of the population.

FTR: Latest CDC data says 1 shot of Moderna or Pfizer is 80% effective and at least 1 fully vaccinated Manitoban has died of Covid.

That still may come regarding passports. It would also help to heavily fine & jail any of the people who incite others to ignore masking & vaccinations.  Our governments are gutless. I wanted to drive to Montana this weekend to get my second Pfizer shot after reading about the vaccine clinics the Blackfoot Tribe set up for canadians. I called the Montana Blackfoot Nation repeatedly yesterday to get more info & no one answered. So, not going as I don't know if they're still doing it.

Edited May 22, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

so for what it's worth....Jason Kenney announced Alberta's "re-opening" plan, and they want all restrictions (all!) lifted by the end of June. According to their plan, Alberta will hit 70% vaccinated by June 28th and they'll fully lift all restrictions and go back to pre-pandemic life. It's obviously insane, but I suppose it's good news for the CFL....??

20 minutes ago, Noeller said:

so for what it's worth....Jason Kenney announced Alberta's "re-opening" plan, and they want all restrictions (all!) lifted by the end of June. According to their plan, Alberta will hit 70% vaccinated by June 28th and they'll fully lift all restrictions and go back to pre-pandemic life. It's obviously insane, but I suppose it's good news for the CFL....??

I don't trust anything this goof says. They talked about everything but the positivity rate. Never even mentioned. Been through this 3 times with our **** stain Premier. Close reopen close. Most of us haven't even had our second shots. This is all about having the Calgary Stampede.

 

Edited May 26, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

28 minutes ago, Noeller said:

so for what it's worth....Jason Kenney announced Alberta's "re-opening" plan, and they want all restrictions (all!) lifted by the end of June. According to their plan, Alberta will hit 70% vaccinated by June 28th and they'll fully lift all restrictions and go back to pre-pandemic life. It's obviously insane, but I suppose it's good news for the CFL....??

That's 70% partially (80% effective). With the Kenny government's track record on Covid restrictions, I'd take this announcement with several grains of salt.

BC wants the CFL to hold off until late August to coincide with their reopening plans. Manitoba is tightening restrictions. Quebec wants to reopen late August. Ontario didn't give dates, but they want 70% to 80% of the population to have 1 dose and 25% to have 2 doses before step 3 kicks in. (They are at 42.14% partially and 2.92% fully vaccinated).

Edited May 26, 20214 yr by TBURGESS

Kenney said he wants McMahon and Commonwealth full capacity in July. That was a quote from him when asked after today's presser. Oi vey. 

49 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Kenney said he wants McMahon and Commonwealth full capacity in July. That was a quote from him when asked after today's presser. Oi vey. 

He compared Alberta to Florida & Texas. Basically if they can do it (open up totally) then why can't we? He's totally capitulated to his base. Keeps saying they follow the science.

When asked by Licia Corbella of the Calgary Sun/Herald how he can say that waiting 4 months or more for a second Covid shot is safe based on science when we're the only country in the world waiting longer than 3 months for our second shot? How can he be sure that we won't get reinfected because we don't know how long immunity lasts with the first dose? In response, he yammers on about our second dose rate of 9.2% being the best in Canada & the fact a scientific study in England shows that waiting 12 weeks for the Astra Zenica shot makes it more effective. We've stopped here in Alberta with Astra Zenica shots as if somehow that vaccine applies to Pfizer & Moderna as well. He fails to mention no study shows the Pfizer & Moderna shots are as effective at 16 weeks.

Just total BS answer with this science business. He has no clue. This is no science. This is all politics.

Edited May 26, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

54 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Kenney said he wants McMahon and Commonwealth full capacity in July. That was a quote from him when asked after today's presser. Oi vey. 

Fans won't go. maybe 15,000 tops. He's insane. No one trusts anything Kenney says.

depending on how things go over the next month, I think I'd feel comfortable outdoors at McMahon (or IGF or whatever...) if it was limited capacity, masks mandatory, proof of vaccine..... but I don't think they'll do that. If AHS gives them the go-ahead, they'll run it as normal to try and maximize profits. Absolutely gross.

53 minutes ago, Noeller said:

depending on how things go over the next month, I think I'd feel comfortable outdoors at McMahon (or IGF or whatever...) if it was limited capacity, masks mandatory, proof of vaccine..... but I don't think they'll do that. If AHS gives them the go-ahead, they'll run it as normal to try and maximize profits. Absolutely gross.

This is so damned premature. At least get the second round of Covid vaccinations up & running first which they aren't doing. Now they'ere waiting until every fricking 12 year old gets vaccinated. Why they can't do both makes no sense. Just do it for gawd's sake.

Edited May 26, 20214 yr by SpeedFlex27

12 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

This is so damned premature. At least get the second round of Covid vaccinations up & running first which they aren't doing. Now they'ere waiting until every fricking 12 year old gets vaccinated. Why they can't do both makes no sense. Just do it for gawd's sake.

Even after the second shot it can take 2-3 weeks before it kicks in.

 

 

We shouldn't fight amongst ourselves here about when the vaccination rates. Seems like the more intelligent cfl fans (bomber fans here haha) aren't covidiots. That makes me feel a little better.

But I agree, there is just no reasoning with the other crowd. And it's going to be a slow drag to getting back to normal. If we ever get there

19 hours ago, Noeller said:

Kenney said he wants McMahon and Commonwealth full capacity in July. That was a quote from him when asked after today's presser. Oi vey. 

I think that getting the CFL back for Labour Day is both realistic and very welcome.

From a CBC article published yesterday, here is part of the schedule for reopening plans by various provinces. Of particular interest is the third graphic for large sporting events. It looks like B.C. is being extra careful with sporting events, at least when compared to Ontario in other categories. Perhaps the Lions could be scheduled to play on the road to open the season so as not to cause any delay to the already shortened season. Obviously, Manitoba has no reopening plans at the moment, but hopefully things get under control soon and some sort of plan can be organized.

13 minutes ago, Starman115 said:

From a CBC article published yesterday, here is part of the schedule for reopening plans by various provinces. Of particular interest is the third graphic for large sporting events. It looks like B.C. is being extra careful with sporting events, at least when compared to Ontario in other categories. Perhaps the Lions could be scheduled to play on the road to open the season so as not to cause any delay to the already shortened season. Obviously, Manitoba has no reopening plans at the moment, but hopefully things get under control soon and some sort of plan can be organized.

Amazing how fast BC is opening up casinos... 

On 2021-05-26 at 5:35 PM, Noeller said:

 

the 4500 fans in the stands at some point is their usual goal isnt it? 😉

I wish the league would come out with some thing solid. having soo much un certainty surround the league is really bad for every one. 

17 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

the 4500 fans in the stands at some point is their usual goal isnt it? 😉

I wish the league would come out with some thing solid. having soo much un certainty surround the league is really bad for every one. 

I don’t know how anyone could expect more concrete plans from the league with all the uncertainty surrounding every other aspect of life in each province right now. Target date is still August 5. By mid-July of training camps show no sign of opening then we may have an idea that things are being pushed back. And as always, dependent on Health Canada, not what the league decides to announce or not announce. 

In order to make plans, they need to make a decision probably in the next week or so. If they don't know within that frame, then they'll have to push it back. This definitely can't be left to the last minute. But I definitely agree that you can't blame the league when it's the virus that's at issue here. The provinces are trying to make the best decisions based on what the virus is doing, and the league has to go with what each province is doing. It's really all about the virus right now, and nobody knows what it'll do next...

3 hours ago, Noeller said:

In order to make plans, they need to make a decision probably in the next week or so. If they don't know within that frame, then they'll have to push it back. This definitely can't be left to the last minute. But I definitely agree that you can't blame the league when it's the virus that's at issue here. The provinces are trying to make the best decisions based on what the virus is doing, and the league has to go with what each province is doing. It's really all about the virus right now, and nobody knows what it'll do next...

Cue me blaming Randy "Scarf Boy" Ambrosie in 4... 3... 2... 1.... It just seems so natural to do so.