Making Odds at the QB Raffle

Darian Durant, Kevin Glenn, that Franklin guy under contract in Edmonton, the geriatric MVP in Ottawa, the wheel of fortune in Montréal, other strays, and of course, our very own Matt Nichols:

What are the odds that each of these quarterbacks change teams for the upcoming season?

Be an oddsmaker.

Here is my guess:

 

20% Matt Nichols

 70% Kevin Glenn

50% Darian Durant

20% James Franklin

30% Henry Burris

Danny O'Brien

60% Ricky Ray

10% Travis Lulay

20% Drew Tate

40% Dan LeFevour

Vernon Adams

Shane Carden

30% Rakeem Cato

40% Jonathan Crompton

30% Jeremiah Masoli

Greg McGhee

Jacory Harris

Jeff Matthews

30% Mitchell Gale

Keith Price

40% Thomas DeMarco

Jordan Lynch

20% Brandon Bridge

Jake Waters

Cody Fajardo

Brock Jensen

20% Logan Kilgore

Nick Arbuckle

Brady Bolles

Andrew Buckley

BJ Coleman

Everett Golson

GJ Kinne

Vad Lee

Bryant Moniz

Kyle Quinlan

Philip Sims

60% Adrian McPherson

30% Drew Willy

 

http://www.cfl.ca/players/

You must have a lot of free time...

1 hour ago, WBBFanWest said:

You must have a lot of free time...

took ten minutes to first look up the free agent QBs and then skim 9 rosters .... another 2-3 minutes to guess the chances of any QB moving sometime in 2017

Edited January 4, 20179 yr by BigBlue

Considering Willy just signed a new big contract... I am to assumer that Ray will be moving on unless he wants a massive pay cut?  It would be wise for Toronto to spend the extra money at other positions considering how bad they were last season.

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Considering Willy just signed a new big contract... I am to assumer that Ray will be moving on unless he wants a massive pay cut?  It would be wise for Toronto to spend the extra money at other positions considering how bad they were last season.

I think I read at the end of the season that Ray was willing to move into a back-up/mentor role for them. He knows the end is near, and is just trying to eke out as much time as he can...

I'd put the odds higher on Burris being elsewhere if he doesn't retire. I can't imagine him taking a huge pay cut and they can't afford him and Harris this coming season.

Considering a lot of the QBs you've listed were released by their teams I would say chances are good they will be playing elsewhere if at at all.

FYI -  Kyle Quinlan was put on the Als' suspended list about 3 years ago and he's now co-offensive coordinator for McMaster so I think it's safe to say he's 100% not going to be with the Als.

2 hours ago, Noeller said:

I think I read at the end of the season that Ray was willing to move into a back-up/mentor role for them. He knows the end is near, and is just trying to eke out as much time as he can...

Ray said he wants to be a qb coach so he'll be taking his first step like Dave Dickenson & Kent Austin did on their way to CFL head coaching jobs. Calvillo in Montreal? With Jacques Chapdelaine being the OC, I wonder if Anthony Calvillo will move on when his contract expires whenever that is. I'd assume at the end of next season?

Just now, SpeedFlex27 said:

Ray said he wants to be a qb coach so he'll be taking his first step like Dave Dickenson & Kent Austin did on their way to CFL head coaching jobs. Calvillo in Montreal? With Jacques Chapdelaine being the OC, I wonder if Anthony Calvillo will move on when his contract expires whenever that is. I'd assume at the end of next season?

Montreal management has said that Calvillo is a HC in waiting....he's just not ready yet, but will be before long. He's one of the most popular people in Montreal, and it's just a matter of time before he's Als HC.

41 minutes ago, Jacquie said:

I'd put the odds higher on Burris being elsewhere if he doesn't retire. I can't imagine him taking a huge pay cut and they can't afford him and Harris this coming season.

 

So who can afford 400k for Burris?

Toronto at the cost of cutting both Willy & Ray?

Regina as an interim stop gap instead of Durant?

Montreal so they can scrap their current development program?

Or someone wanting to take a run at the cup this year:

Buono would choke on his cookies but maybe we wouldn't but I bet Ottawa desperately wants to find a way to repeat

 

3 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Montreal management has said that Calvillo is a HC in waiting....he's just not ready yet, but will be before long. He's one of the most popular people in Montreal, and it's just a matter of time before he's Als HC.

Montreal must be a much different market than any other CFL city. Need a French speaking coach or a popular former player who may not turn out to be a great assistant as considerations for future Als  head coaching positions. It seems that decisions are made with politics & popularity in  mind with the Als instead of hiring the best candidate. Not a good thing.

4 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Montreal must be a much different market than any other CFL city. Need a French speaking coach or a popular former player who may not turn out to be a great assistant as considerations for future Als  head coaching positions. It seems that decisions are made with politics & popularity in  mind with the Als instead of hiring the best candidate. Not a good thing.

Have you ever been to Quebec?  They are extremely xenophobic so it doesn't surprise me at all...

Sadly the business side of having a French component either in your coaching staff or players is reality in Quebec, be it football or hockey. The way it is. Look at the NFL they had their own discrimination issues and then legislated a minority hiring policy for team staff. 

9 hours ago, DR. CFL said:

Sadly the business side of having a French component either in your coaching staff or players is reality in Quebec, be it football or hockey. The way it is. Look at the NFL they had their own discrimination issues and then legislated a minority hiring policy for team staff. 

The Rooney Rule isn't technically a minority hiring policy... it legislates that teams must interview at least one minority candidate for top positions (HC and up)... a lot of teams find ways to circumvent this rule...

14 hours ago, Jacquie said:

I'd put the odds higher on Burris being elsewhere if he doesn't retire. I can't imagine him taking a huge pay cut and they can't afford him and Harris this coming season.

Hasn't he already agreed to take less money next season?

http://www.cfl.ca/2016/05/29/report-henry-burris-to-return-in-2017/

48 minutes ago, sweep the leg said:

Hasn't he already agreed to take less money next season?

http://www.cfl.ca/2016/05/29/report-henry-burris-to-return-in-2017/

I don't recall seeing that before and I don't think a lot of people did since there was still a lot of talk during the past season about the QB situation from what I recall. 

28 minutes ago, Jacquie said:

I don't recall seeing that before and I don't think a lot of people did since there was still a lot of talk during the past season about the QB situation from what I recall. 

It was discussed and at that time I think most people assumed that he would of been the back up for this past season and that he restructured for 2017 so that he can milk out an extra year of a pay cheque.

Unfortunately since he won the cup I can't imagine his ego accepting the fact that he will make half as much as Harris and most likely sitting on a bench.  I think he gets shipped to Riderville ....

The RBs transition plan hasn't gone according to.......plan. Harris, as he has done each year in his short career, hasn't been able to put together a full 18 games, and lost the starting job again. If he'd been able to maintain a solid pace and looked like a complete starting QB, everything would be fine for them...but what do they do if Harris isn't "for real"? Hank is arrogant enough that he'll try to convince everyone he can play till he's 60. He's exactly the guy who will have to be removed from the game kicking and screaming....

2 hours ago, Noeller said:

The RBs transition plan hasn't gone according to.......plan. Harris, as he has done each year in his short career, hasn't been able to put together a full 18 games, and lost the starting job again. If he'd been able to maintain a solid pace and looked like a complete starting QB, everything would be fine for them...but what do they do if Harris isn't "for real"? Hank is arrogant enough that he'll try to convince everyone he can play till he's 60. He's exactly the guy who will have to be removed from the game kicking and screaming....

You're right he's as arrogant a player as I've ever seen. He should retire on a high but just won't. It'll be his problem if he goes out on a low which I think will happen.

3 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

You're right he's as arrogant a player as I've ever seen. He should retire on a high but just won't. It'll be his problem if he goes out on a low which I think will happen.

It won't be his problem, he'll have a million people to blame it on. 

Murphy and Jones are really screwing up the Durant situation...  offering him $300 plus incentives to get to $400

http://3downnation.com/2017/01/05/madani-riders-make-new-offer-quarterback-darian-durant/

Riders had a lot of 2016 cap room - so it seems anyway... - he should have been locked in with a bonus paid in December... 

I could see Durant ending up in Montreal with Adams backing him up...

 

Some teams are smart ending up. Rather dishing out the big bucks they are trying to make QBs get a good base and earn the rest. As it should be.

What kind of a league has a QB win MVP, is asked to take a pay cut and takes it?

1 hour ago, BigBlue said:

What kind of a league has a QB win MVP, is asked to take a pay cut and takes it?

Football is a team sport, I would think Burris has enough money for himself now since he's been a CFL starter for so long. As arrogant as he is, I think even he realizes time conquers all and the end of his career is near.

Besides, every contract negotiation is different and Burris already (reportedly) took a much lower salary to have the opportunity to play in Ottawa in front of friends and family when the Bombers were trying to entice him to play here a few years ago.

Also, Peyton Manning had previously won MVP awards, then took a pay cut leading into the Broncos 2016 season. Well - it was sort of a pay cut, he received less guaranteed salary and in exchange the Broncos upped his incentives... the Broncos then went on to win the Super Bowl. Can't recall any case where a QB wins an MVP award, then takes a pay cut the subsequent season...

http://3downnation.com/2017/01/06/riders-alouettes-engage-darian-durant-trade-talks/

Adams for Durant is not happening...  I think Murphy/Jones settle for Cato for Durant before they lose him for nothing. 

I could see Glenn back in Hamilton as insurance, Ray to Sask, Franklin sticks with Edm

Does Cato have any value?  I would think Crompton probably has more then him.

Wasn't Glenn released to pursue NFL opportunities like the other guys in the league!?

Does anyone see Robert Griffin maybe coming up the CFL to try and resurrect his career?  I can't see anyone else giving him a shot next season...