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2021 (??) CFL Season

https://www.tsn.ca/naylor-many-questions-but-few-answers-on-a-2021-cfl-season-1.1543725

The Canadian Football League has been outrageously quiet since it pulled the plug on its season more than two months ago, leaving behind a wake of speculation about where things are headed next.

With the reality setting in that COVID-19 is likely to still be around in some form next summer, there is real concern about what the 2021 season might look like or if it will occur at all.

There are teams that believe it is vitally important to play in 2021 and that without a season the CFL is in danger of being mothballed. Whether every team believes that is another question. And there is a lot to sort out before anyone can accurately predict what a season might look like and how much pain the teams are collectively willing to stomach to make it happen.

The league and its franchises are currently running through various scenarios for next season, trying to get a handle on true costs of each and working at ways to trim budgets and save money. That’s likely to continue until the league can truly choose a course of action, which feels like next April at the earliest.

Why? Well, there’s not much point in fully committing to a scenario that’s seven months away if that scenario might be totally unrealistic by the time you get there.

There has been no 2021 business plan presented yet, only regular updates to the presidents and governors about what the league is doing to prepare for the unknown.

It should be noted that teams will need to make decisions about retaining assistant coaches with expiring contracts by December, which will be the first real economic commitments to a 2021 season. Restrictions on signing players will need to be lifted well before the opening of February free agency, where players are likely to meet a cautious market – one in which signing bonuses will probably be absent.

There’s a collective bargaining agreement to amend, if not renegotiate, with the players, which will require some kind of pressure point because it always does. But the league can’t sit down with the players until it gets a true handle on revenues and it can’t do that until it chooses a course of action.

Will CFL teams be allowed to have full stadiums next summer? It doesn't seem likely. But just what percentage of capacity will be allowed – if any at all – is impossible to guess. It seems as if the league is counting on the restrictions that currently prevent fans from being in stadiums being lifted. But to what degree?

When will we see a schedule? Good question. Or could we see multiple schedules for different scenarios? Never say never.

Could it be a 21-week, 18-game season played in home stadiums? Unlikely, given the losses teams are expected to take with reduced numbers of fans in the stands. Could we see a return to the 10-week bubble? Maybe. A nine-game schedule played in home stadiums before fans? Perhaps.

The point is no one knows, so demanding answers to questions that can’t possibly be answered right now is a waste of time.

All we know is that there’s going to be a lot less revenue for teams to operate with under any scenario, not just because of crowd restrictions but also due to older fans choosing to stay home for their safety. The CFL’s fan demographics do it no favours in this regard.

Getting consensus on a best course of action won’t be easy for the CFL’s nine teams. Back in the summer, there were teams that were willing to play without government support and teams that weren’t. And just like then, the biggest challenge commissioner Randy Ambrosie faces now is finding a scenario they can all live with.

Adopting a revenue-sharing model so that each team absorbs the same amount of red ink would certainly make consensus-building easier, which many believe should be the direction for the future, COVID-19 or not.

The other elephant in the room is federal government, which many in the CFL believe left it high and dry last summer after months of back-and-forth talks where the league believed it was making progress.

Is the CFL prepared to go down that road again, knowing it doesn’t control the timeline and larger forces can change things in an instant? Perhaps, although it’s not as though the feds don’t have a long list of people coming at them with their hands out.

There will be voices demanding the owners suck up the losses of playing a season under any circumstance, as owners have done in other sports. But the business calculation in sports such as MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA is different because of the percentage of revenues those leagues derive from television.

Losses sustained by playing in those leagues can also be viewed as investments towards protecting massive franchise values. That’s not the case in the CFL, where teams can’t just float money on the backs of their franchise values, and where one third of the teams are publicly owned.

It would be beneficial for the league to soon announce its formal commitment to play some kind of season in 2021.

But beyond that, get ready for months more of waiting with lots of questions and speculation but very few answers.

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Featured Replies

20 hours ago, Noeller said:

the wife is pretty bummed about it (but hoping for a miracle) but honestly, for me........ I've been in Alberta for 14 years now. I can't even begin to put into words what an incredible feeling it is for me to be in Winnipeg on a Bombers game day. I was saying to the boys in our group chat that its' almost a religious experience for me. I took it for granted for 27 years, but not anymore. Whether I watch the game at the stadium or at a bar, or out at our cottage at Victoria Beach, or wherever......it's an indescribable feeling of joy just being in the province on game day. 

I'm just saying... you could move back to Winnipeg before buying tickets, thus obtaining the required Manitoba residency to attend games.

4 minutes ago, Eternal optimist said:

I'm just saying... you could move back to Winnipeg before buying tickets, thus obtaining the required Manitoba residency to attend games.

All he actually needs to do is get vaccinated in MB. 

1 hour ago, Jpan85 said:

 

Does that spell trouble?

Got my pre-sale home opener tickets for me and the boys! They must have let friends/family in early cause there was slim pickens for decent seats and we definitely dont have that many season ticket holders. Still some large pockets of tickets available in most bowls on the sides. Hopefully we can sell it out or at least come close. If we dont ill feel shame in front of a national audience.

  • Author
1 hour ago, Eternal optimist said:

I'm just saying... you could move back to Winnipeg before buying tickets, thus obtaining the required Manitoba residency to attend games.

Bless you for saying it..... I dream of finding jobs in MB that pay anywhere close to what the wife and I make in AB. The sad reality is that AB pays more, and is WAY cheaper to live in (real estate, property taxes, and no PST).....

6 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Bless you for saying it..... I dream of finding jobs in MB that pay anywhere close to what the wife and I make in AB. The sad reality is that AB pays more, and is WAY cheaper to live in (real estate, property taxes, and no PST).....

Really? The other two i can see but im surprised housing is cheaper in Alberta.

  • Author
2 minutes ago, Bubba Zanetti said:

Really? The other two i can see but im surprised housing is cheaper in Alberta.

It is INSANE what's happened to the housing market in Manitoba over the last decade, without the salaries to go with it.....

24 minutes ago, Bubba Zanetti said:

Really? The other two i can see but im surprised housing is cheaper in Alberta.

Rural AB vs rural MB maybe?   CGY and EDM are still far more expensive than WPG..... 

 

  

  • Author
21 minutes ago, Jimmy Pop said:

Rural AB vs rural MB maybe?   CGY and EDM are still far more expensive than WPG..... 

 

  

Nope...comparable house (age, sq ft, etc) still cheaper in Calgary than Winnipeg, or at least very close. I live on Realtor.ca and am just blown away because everyone in AB makes so much more money than the person doing a comparable job in MB. I can not understand it. It seems to have happened around 2010ish...housing prices in Wpg skyrocketed without a corresponding raise in pay...

17 minutes ago, Noeller said:

Nope...comparable house (age, sq ft, etc) still cheaper in Calgary than Winnipeg, or at least very close. I live on Realtor.ca and am just blown away because everyone in AB makes so much more money than the person doing a comparable job in MB. I can not understand it. It seems to have happened around 2010ish...housing prices in Wpg skyrocketed without a corresponding raise in pay...

The housing market in Winnipeg has really exploded but its a much more recent phenomenon. It may have been creeping up incrementally since the 2010's but it really hadnt started going bonkers until the pandemic. Lots of stories over the last year or so of people bidding like 30K, 40K over asking price and still losing out

Edited by Bubba Zanetti

  • Author
8 minutes ago, Bubba Zanetti said:

The housing market in Winnipeg has really exploded but its a much more recent phenomenon. It may have been creeping up incrementally since the 2010's but it really hadnt started going bonkers until the pandemic. Lots of stories over the last year or so of people bidding like 30K, 40K over asking price and still losing out

I just can't figure out how people in MB are affording it, based on the going salary rates. Unless they're just constantly on a 25 year amortization or something....? It's nuts. Unless you're a "professional" (lawyer, doctor, teacher, tradesman...) I have no idea how you afford to live in a newer home in MB....

5 minutes ago, Noeller said:

I just can't figure out how people in MB are affording it, based on the going salary rates. Unless they're just constantly on a 25 year amortization or something....? It's nuts. Unless you're a "professional" (lawyer, doctor, teacher, tradesman...) I have no idea how you afford to live in a newer home in MB....

Sell drugs?

1 hour ago, Bubba Zanetti said:

The housing market in Winnipeg has really exploded but its a much more recent phenomenon. It may have been creeping up incrementally since the 2010's but it really hadnt started going bonkers until the pandemic. Lots of stories over the last year or so of people bidding like 30K, 40K over asking price and still losing out

You'd be amazed what areas just out side the city have been selling for pre covid. The new developments that stretch towards or are marketer towards city comuters is crazy. Steinbach and niverville especially. 

  • Author
Just now, wbbfan said:

You'd be amazed what areas just out side the city have been selling for pre covid. The new developments that stretch towards or are marketer towards city comuters is crazy. Steinbach and niverville especially. 

it's WILD......again, I live on Realtor.ca and follow the MB housing market very closely. I love that area around Oak Bluff, and my sister's down in Lorette, so I follow the various French-Catholic communities south of the city closely......the prices are insane. I can't figure out how people are paying for it...unless everyone just has multiple jobs. Never mind both parents working...you need both parents working two jobs each.

12 minutes ago, Noeller said:

it's WILD......again, I live on Realtor.ca and follow the MB housing market very closely. I love that area around Oak Bluff, and my sister's down in Lorette, so I follow the various French-Catholic communities south of the city closely......the prices are insane. I can't figure out how people are paying for it...unless everyone just has multiple jobs. Never mind both parents working...you need both parents working two jobs each.

Yeah I married into the french catholic area in the south east. A lot of people here are spending 50 percent and more of their dual income on their house. And not saving for retirement or education. 

  • Author
3 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

Yeah I married into the french catholic area in the south east. A lot of people here are spending 50 percent and more of their dual income on their house. And not saving for retirement or education. 

My wife is deathly afraid of being house poor, which is a big part of why we decided to stay in our first house and not upgrade to something fancier. I was convinced by the idea of paying it off by the time I'm 50 and then spend my last 10 or 15 good working years paying for a retirement place. 

Holy **** we got off topic in this thread.......ha ha ha. If anyone ever wanted to start a real estate thread over in Gen Forum and transfer all this stuff, I'd gladly keep that ball rolling. I am mildly obsessed with Manitoba real estate listings..

4 hours ago, Tracker said:

Does that spell trouble?

Maybe he can't spell anymore? 

Edited by M.O.A.B.

3 minutes ago, Noeller said:

My wife is deathly afraid of being house poor, which is a big part of why we decided to stay in our first house and not upgrade to something fancier. I was convinced by the idea of paying it off by the time I'm 50 and then spend my last 10 or 15 good working years paying for a retirement place. 

Holy **** we got off topic in this thread.......ha ha ha. If anyone ever wanted to start a real estate thread over in Gen Forum and transfer all this stuff, I'd gladly keep that ball rolling. I am mildly obsessed with Manitoba real estate listings..

Haha yeah. Lingering effects of the longest off season ever. 

We went huge deposit and 10 year mortgage 

2 hours ago, Noeller said:

it's WILD......again, I live on Realtor.ca and follow the MB housing market very closely. I love that area around Oak Bluff, and my sister's down in Lorette, so I follow the various French-Catholic communities south of the city closely......the prices are insane. I can't figure out how people are paying for it...unless everyone just has multiple jobs. Never mind both parents working...you need both parents working two jobs each.

The same is happening in calgary too. We often look at upgrading houses but the house that we want is just stupid and a more sideways move is just a waste of money. 

It's the lie that boomers perpetuated about real estate always being a good investment. Mayne for them but we won't see the huge gains previous generations did and we are quite likely looking at a correction happening at some point screwing a lot of people over. Prices can't keep going up like they are without the corresponding increase in wages.

The banks are starting to get skittish about lending to the max. They may be starting to see that the market and house evaluations may be overrated and a "market correction" may be pending. 

1 hour ago, Tracker said:

The banks are starting to get skittish about lending to the max. They may be starting to see that the market and house evaluations may be overrated and a "market correction" may be pending. 

I thought we had a good size housing market bubble before covid. Lots of new builds staying empty for long periods of time while values go up and we had low inflation and a decent size portion of our population isn't looking to buy a new house any time soon.

 I think we are gonna see another large housing market crash and recession post covid. 

9 hours ago, wbbfan said:

I thought we had a good size housing market bubble before covid. Lots of new builds staying empty for long periods of time while values go up and we had low inflation and a decent size portion of our population isn't looking to buy a new house any time soon.

 I think we are gonna see another large housing market crash and recession post covid. 

No doubt the current housing boom is fueled by the government just giving a lot of people living at home a down payment from their CERB payments. My wife and I were fortunate to buy a house in Winnipeg in 2013 and did not go over asking price. I will never forget how frustrated we were - at the time, I wanted to buy into Wolseley (where I grew up) - found a house listed there for $220,000 with some knob and tube in it still - was a fixer-upper and definitely needed some work. We decided - thanks to our sizeable down payment - to make an offer at list price - no conditions - it went for $260,000 cash. That was when we tapped out.

8 years later and we have been happily debt free since November 2019, we had an initial mortgage balance of about $184,000. Paid off the house in its entirety about 2 weeks before going to Calgary for Grey Cup. Man that was a fun time.

2 hours ago, Eternal optimist said:

No doubt the current housing boom is fueled by the government just giving a lot of people living at home a down payment from their CERB payments.

I don't think you get CERB + your regular income... I think it replaces your income because you lost your job. 

I would think that the world shutting down for a month creating a global market crash which in turn led to rock bottom mortgage rates- might be more the reason.

56 minutes ago, wanna-b-fanboy said:

I don't think you get CERB + your regular income... I think it replaces your income because you lost your job. 

I would think that the world shutting down for a month creating a global market crash which in turn led to rock bottom mortgage rates- might be more the reason.

Sure, but if I were to rewind back to when we were saving for a house - when I was 20 years old... I was still in university, I was (at the time) working part-time earning ~$18,000 a year whilst attending university. The only eligibility criteria for CERB with respect to income levels was income in excess of $5,000. If the pandemic hit me whilst working at that job - I would actually have been earning more by staying on CERB for the period it covered ($2,000 per month * 12 months = $24,000 per year).

Not only that - CERB payments were exempt from CPP and EI - so you actually got to retain even more of your money. All that said - the money absolutely had to go out, and that situation is the exception, not the norm for sure. I just meant if you were fortunate enough to be living at home and receiving CERB, the above scenario could certainly have ramped up your ability to save for your own home - if you had the means to do so.

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