I can't believe I am even making this Thread... 

 

But, it seems to have taken over the politics Thread so I figured we can hash this out here (though the way the conversation was heading about AGW, maybe it should have stayed in the Politics thread...

 

 

So here we go, let's have at it!

 

 

I believe there is overwhelming evidence in AGW and it is a vocal, self-serving minority of the scientific community that derail and muddy up the issue so we can not act in a constructive manner to curtail this global thread.

Edited January 2, 20233 yr by Wanna-B-Fanboy

2 hours ago, Mark F said:

I realize there are people who think "this happened in the past, so nothing new, dont worry."

at this point, given what we are seeing with our own eyes, and reading every day, nothing will change their minds.

fossil fuel corps love that. their pr department would get the Nobel prize for advertising if there was one.

some people pick and choose which science they will act on. so for example,  vaccine, yes, climate no.

change is hard.

 

Just to clarify: I am not a climate change denier.  Drought is a cyclical thing on the prairies - this is a fact.  The drought of the 1930s was made worse by human practices: uprooting the native grass, over-plowing fields, very little crop rotation and not enough manure added to the soil. 

Fast forward to 2021: the current drought is also being made worse by human activity - just in a different way. 

 

1 hour ago, Mark H. said:

Just to clarify: I am not a climate change denier. 

good to hear, nomoffence but it is hard to tell where you stand from your posts, including this one. on this subject you tend to be a bit cryptic imo.

drought is cyclical, sure, but the point I made is the current drought is the worst in 1200 years, was exacerbated by burning fossil fuels, and is not  ending anytime soon.

and its not just s.w. usa, Washington state wheat crop is gone, no water,  withered away. its a huge wheat growing state.

large parts of the european side of the mediterranean is on fire.

hard to imagine when what will happen as it worsens, so a few oilmcompanies and coal companies ceo can get a five hundred foot yacht.

anyway, thanks for clarifying.

Edited August 2, 20214 yr by Mark F

Washington wheat crop:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wither-away-die-us-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-bakes-wheat-fruit-crops-2021-07-12/?fbclid=IwAR3kmRtT9mHVZGHy7FsITEyK2MTVsw3UHhZzMBpWLLtVASufTmE-aLHnh2M

It's not that they won't have any crop at all, but they won't have the yield or quality they were used to, especially after the 2020 bumper crop. We'll all be harvesting less this year. 

13 hours ago, Mark H. said:

Washington wheat crop:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wither-away-die-us-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-bakes-wheat-fruit-crops-2021-07-12/?fbclid=IwAR3kmRtT9mHVZGHy7FsITEyK2MTVsw3UHhZzMBpWLLtVASufTmE-aLHnh2M

It's not that they won't have any crop at all, but they won't have the yield or quality they were used to, especially after the 2020 bumper crop. We'll all be harvesting less this year. 

I have driven through that area several times. It is vast, mile after mile, of wheat. and, a super max prison.

its not like our prairies, it is a strange landscape.

3 minutes ago, Mark F said:

I have driven through that area several times. It is vast, mile after mile, of wheat. and, a super max prison.

its not like our prairies, it is a strange landscape.

I know of the area. It's like some areas of North Dakota. Flat farmland with hardly a tree in sight. 

The drive through the great plains, Iowa in particular, is mind blowing. You can drive for 12 hours and see nothing but corn. The chemical companies must be working 24/7, to keep that monoculture going. 

1 hour ago, Mark H. said:

I know of the area. It's like some areas of North Dakota. Flat farmland with hardly a tree in sight. 

The drive through the great plains, Iowa in particular, is mind blowing. You can drive for 12 hours and see nothing but corn. The chemical companies must be working 24/7, to keep that monoculture going. 

exactly. I too drove through there, and it is a thousand miles of corn, subsidized, irrigated, and dumped onto the market.

ogallala aquifer going going..... gone.

nothing like our prairies, which are beautiful, and where there is something left for birds, and so on. 

 

Edited August 3, 20214 yr by Mark F

1 hour ago, Mark F said:

exactly. I too drove through there, and it is a thousand miles of corn, subsidized, irrigated, and dumped onto the market.

ogallala aquifer going going..... gone.

nothing like our prairies, which are beautiful, and where there is something left for birds, and so on. 

 

The United States consumes 80% of its corn within the country.  The subsidies are basically a supply management system. You know, this Canadian thing that Americans like to criticize. 

A critical ocean system may be heading for collapse due to climate change, study finds

‘The consequences of a collapse would likely be far-reaching’

 

By 

Sarah Kaplan

Today at 11:01 a.m. EDT

 

Human-caused warming has led to an “almost complete loss of stability” in the system that drives Atlantic Ocean currents, a new study has found — raising the worrying prospect that this critical aquatic “conveyor belt” could be close to collapse.

 

In recent years, scientists have warned about a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm, salty water from the tropics to northern Europe and then sends colder water back south along the ocean floor. Researchers who study ancient climate change have also uncovered evidence that the AMOC can turn off abruptly, causing wild temperature swings and other dramatic shifts in global weather systems.

Scientists haven’t directly observed the AMOC slowing down. But the new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change, draws on more than a century of ocean temperature and salinity data to show significant changes in eight indirect measures of the circulation’s strength.

 

These indicators suggest that the AMOC is running out of steam, making it more susceptible to disruptions that might knock it out of equilibrium, said study author Niklas Boers, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

If the circulation shuts down, it could bring extreme cold to Europe and parts of North America, raise sea levels along the U.S. East Coast and disrupt seasonal monsoons that provide water to much of the world.

“This is an increase in understanding … of how close to a tipping point the AMOC might already be,” said Levke Caesar, a climate physicist at Maynooth University who was not involved in the study.

Boers’s analysis doesn’t suggest exactly when the switch might happen. But “the mere possibility that the AMOC tipping point is close should be motivation enough for us to take countermeasures,” Caesar said. “The consequences of a collapse would likely be far-reaching.”

....

 

It’s happened before. Studies suggest that toward the end of the last ice age, a massive glacial lake burst through a declining North American ice sheet. The flood of freshwater spilled into the Atlantic, halting the AMOC and plunging much of the Northern Hemisphere — especially Europe — into deep cold. Gas bubbles trapped in polar ice indicate the cold spell lasted 1,000 years. Analyses of plant fossils and ancient artifacts suggest that the climate shift transformed ecosystems and threw human societies into upheaval.

“The phenomenon is intrinsically bi-stable,” Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution President Peter de Menocal said of the AMOC. “It’s either on or it’s off.”

But is it about to turn off now?

“That’s the core question we’re all concerned about,” said de Menocal, who was not involved in Boers’s research.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/08/05/change-ocean-collapse-atlantic-meridional/

 

Well, if Covid doesn't kill us then an Ice Age will. 

2 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Well, if Covid doesn't kill us then an Ice Age will. 

After this past July, an ice age sounds pretty great.

We have started our oat harvest:

2020 bushels per acre: 178

2021 bushels per acre: 78 so far

Stock your larders.

 

3 hours ago, WildPath said:

After this past July, an ice age sounds pretty great.

I was trying to find a story on what affect the loss of the Gulf Stream would be for Canada but nothing. 

21 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

I was trying to find a story on what affect the loss of the Gulf Stream would be for Canada but nothing. 

Ive been following this one for a while and I don't think it will.  It's mostly western Europe and the UK. BUT that isn't set in stone. For one thing that shutting down is a reasonably recent study and I'm sure there will be new info all the time. And secondly shutting down a major earth engine like that is bound to cause  other feedback issues.That the sudden draining of Agassiz caused that disruption isn't set in stone but it's likely.That period of 8 or 9 ,000 years was a period of massive destruction and violence.  " Lake Aggassiz " by Bill Redekop is a great read on it. Plus you can add in a possible large impact event that is finally gaining more acceptance to a turbulent time.

2 minutes ago, the watcher said:

Ive been following this one for a while and I don't think it will.  It's mostly western Europe and the UK. BUT that isn't set in stone. For one thing that shutting down is a reasonably recent study and I'm sure there will be new info all the time. And secondly shutting down a major earth engine like that is bound to cause  other feedback issues.That the sudden draining of Agassiz caused that disruption isn't set in stone but it's likely.That period of 8 or 9 ,000 years was a period of massive destruction and violence.  " Lake Aggassiz " by Bill Redekop is a great read on it. Plus you can add in a possible large impact event that is finally gaining more acceptance to a turbulent time.

Imagine if that lake was still around today? Just how massive it would have been to see.

1 hour ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Imagine if that lake was still around today? Just how massive it would have been to see.

I'd have lake front property. or at least close enough to watch the icebergs floating around. Those in the city would be at the bottom of a large chilly lake.

scientist climate forecast..... more extremes.

 

Lake Oroville now:

SAN FRANCISCO — California water managers on Thursday shut down hydropower generation at Lake Oroville for the first time ever due to falling lake levels, a major milestone in the state's historic drought.

What happened: The Hyatt Powerplant at Lake Oroville went offline for the first time in history due to low water levels in the state's second largest reservoir. The lake typically generates electricity by sending water through its turbines, but it can't produce power when lake levels fall below 630-640 feet. Levels hit 642 feet on Thursday, according to state data.

 

Lake Oroville 2017:

In February 2017, Oroville Dam's main and emergency spillways were damaged, prompting the evacuation of more than 180,000 people living downstream along the Feather River and the relocation of a fish hatchery.

Heavy rainfall during the 2017 California floods damaged the main spillway on February 7, so the California Department of Water Resources stopped the spillway flow to assess the damage and contemplate its next steps. The rain eventually raised the lake level until it flowed over the emergency spillway, even after the damaged main spillway was reopened. As water flowed over the emergency spillway, headward erosion threatened to undermine and collapse the concrete weir, which could have sent a 30-foot (10 m) wall of water into the Feather River below and flooded communities downstream. No collapse occurred, but the water further damaged the main spillway and eroded the bare slope of the emergency spillway. Many schools closed due to the floods.

 

 

Edited August 7, 20214 yr by Mark F

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/united-nations-climate-change-1.6134493

Quote

The UN climate panel sounded a dire warning Monday, saying the world is dangerously close to runaway warming – and that humans are "unequivocally" to blame.

Already, greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere are high enough to guarantee climate disruption for decades if not centuries, scientists warn in a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

That's on top of the deadly heat waves, powerful hurricanes and other weather extremes that are happening now and are likely to become more severe.

Describing the report as a "code red for humanity," UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged an immediate end to coal energy and other high-polluting fossil fuels.

Drawing on more than 14,000 scientific studies, the report gives the most comprehensive and detailed picture yet of how climate change is altering the natural world — and what still could be ahead.

Unless immediate, rapid and large-scale action is taken to reduce emissions, the report says, the average global temperature will likely cross the 1.5 C warming threshold within the next 20 years.

Link to the IPCC report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

 

 

Edited August 9, 20214 yr by FrostyWinnipeg

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science

A ton of information broken down into key sections regarding the IPCC report released earlier today.

9 hours ago, blue_gold_84 said:

the IPCC report released earlier toda

sure you saw it, as forecast years ago, the North atlantic current is in a state of decay.

lets see what its foinf to take to wake huma ity upto the point of doing more than talking.

salmon in  abnormally warm washington state rivers are in heat stress.

meanwhile the suoer rich are buying their boltholes. they dont care.

Edited August 10, 20214 yr by Mark F

So I have been worried about all the tile drainage that has been going on lately. For those who aren't familiar , a grid of perforated pipe is laid down 2.5 to 4 feet below the surface and all excess water is drained off.  I have one neighbor that is doing 8,000 acres this year. ( that would be a strip a mile wide and over 12 miles long ). There are 10s of thousands of acres being drained. There has always been  concerns about the quality of the water if it is just piped into ditches but my concern is our aquifers not being replenished. When I have brought it up with pro tiling guys I am always told that water from that level has no effect on aquifers.BUT that doesn't seem logical to me. So I finally quit being lazy and started to try and find info on it.So I found a White paper done in Minnesota. It involved a platoon of PhDs,  geologists,  Proffs, water resource people....... and here is an excerpt from that study :

Knowledge gaps. 
Several critical knowledge gaps are identified in this 
paper, creating opportunities for further research 
to improve our understanding for better managed 
water resources:
1. Extent of drainage is unknown. Direct 
estimates of the extent of subsurface drainage do 
not exist in Minnesota. However, several indirect 
methods have been utilized to estimate subsur-
face drainage, from the field-scale to county-
level through the use of geographic information 
system (GIS) analysis and aerial photography. 
Based on a 2012 U.S. Geological Survey estimate 
of subsurface drainage extent (Nakagaki and 
Wieczorek, 2016), about 21% of the land area in 
Minnesota has some density of subsurface drain-
age.
2. Effect of drainage on underlying aquifers is 
unknown. A basic understanding of unconfined 
and confined aquifers and their recharge is nec-
essary to connect any hydrological effects from 
agricultural drainage to groundwater. The basic 
goal of subsurface drainage to efficiently drain 
saturated soils clearly alters the water balance in 
croplands. However, its overall effect on ground-
water resources has been poorly characterized, 
and is in large part determined by the geology 
below drained areas and the arrangement of 
underlying aquifers.
3. Water balance shifts. An improved understand-
ing of historical water balance shifts from pre- to 
post-drainage periods is necessary to understand 
long-term implications on net groundwater re-
charge. Also, more direct field-scale studies and 
indirect modeling studies are needed to charac-
terize water budgets for fields with subsurface 
drainage.

So they conclude they don't know how much drainage there is. They don't know the effect on aquifers or the recharge of those aquifers. They don't know the long term effect of that drainage.

Yet we continue full bore at it.  This is F ing nuts. And know one seems to notice. And most people have no clue it's happening. 

Edited August 12, 20214 yr by the watcher

"July 2021 was Earth’s warmest month in recorded history, says NOAA

July featured two $25 billion flood disasters and Earth’s hottest reliably measured temperature on record: 54.4°C (130°F) at Death Valley, California."

 

two twenty five billion dollar floods in one month."

but......  too expensive to switch off oil, to renewable, Which is cheaper now.

covid isnt the only mass insanity.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/july-2021-was-earths-warmest-month-in-recorded-history-says-noaa/

in B.C. with supposedly ecofriendly NDP/green government, there are about total 70 bc hydro public charging stations, for the thousands upon thousands of ev here. two and a half hour wait the other day at one of them.

genius.

On 2021-08-12 at 5:43 AM, the watcher said:

And most people have no clue it's happening. 

as you said earlier, city dwellers are very out of touch with what is happening ouitside city limits. and to the planet in general. hot day = Busy outdoor bars. 

people will notice when it causes the floodway to overflow. then, " how did this happen"

and when all the water from snow, just facking runs away fast, and fields dry up. " give us money, we have no forage"

people cant see past their nose.

Edited August 14, 20214 yr by Mark F

running out of hopium on this.

 

west kelowna is in dire situation, re forest fire. entire town of merrit bc is on evacuation alert.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8116834/fire-chief-mount-law-fire-west-kelowna/

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8116725/highway-hell-coquihalla-video-wildfires-bc/

 

horrifying.

Edited August 17, 20214 yr by Mark F

Well... this ain't good:

 

 

 

 

Never before in recorded history...

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain-climate-change/index.html

 

Rain fell at the normally snowy summit of Greenland for the first time on record

By Rachel Ramirez, CNN

 

Updated 3:27 PM ET, Thu August 19, 2021

 

Melt water runs across the Greenland ice sheet in 2007.

(CNN)For the first time on record, precipitation on Saturday at the summit of Greenland — roughly two miles above sea level — fell as rain and not snow.

Temperatures at the Greenland summit over the weekend rose above freezing for the third time in less than a decade. The warm air fueled an extreme rain event that dumped 7 billion tons of water on the ice sheet, enough to fill the Reflecting Pool at the National Mall in Washington, DC, nearly 250,000 times.

It was the heaviest rainfall on the ice sheet since record keeping began in 1950, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and the amount of ice mass lost on Sunday was seven times higher than normal for this time of year.

Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, said this is evidence Greenland is warming rapidly.

 

 

"What is going on is not simply a warm decade or two in a wandering climate pattern," Scambos told CNN. "This is unprecedented."

Edited August 19, 20214 yr by wanna-b-fanboy