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Hard Analysis: Is this THE year?

I am feeling good about yesterday's draft, not so much about what we did but rather about what we didn't do. Our picks seemed to reflect that we have most of our pieces in place and I can't remember that since the "Swaggerrville" year when  we last visited the Grey Cup. In fact we seem better now than then.

Now every spring some poster boldly predicts this is THE YEAR we are going to win the Grey Cup, but it is almost always based on emotion, "gut feel" and fond wishes.

Do we have any real facts supported by tough analysis that the Blue could actually bring the Cup back to River City this November?

Edited by BigBlue

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16 minutes ago, Floyd said:

You should take a look at Danny Mac's career...  he's HOF like Burris and Glenn...  journeymen that just hung around for a long time - each maybe have 2-3 really great years out of their whole career

When there was a severe lack of QB talent in the CFL, you could get away with a bad TD:INT ratio...  when you add the fact that the game drastically favours QB/REC over DBs now... there's no excuse.

 

They played whole careers with well below what you claimed as the bare min for being a starter, and went to the HOF. that should tell you all you need to know about 2:1 td to int ratio. 

A severe lack as in 3+ guys who ended up in the hof. How many current would end up there? At this rate 2. 

Because of the rule changes towards passing it causes defenses like ours to play more read and react, breaking on the ball and baiting for turn overs.

42 minutes ago, Atomic said:

Acceptable TD:INT ratio in the CFL has changed a lot over the last 10-15 years.  Now we're seeing guys with a 4:1 ratio in some cases.  Even the middle-of-the-pack starters last year put up 2:1 ratios... Nichols, Durant, Collaros...

THIS. I dunno why people are dragging up names from 15+ years ago to try and argue but the CFL is a different game now, avoiding turnovers is arguably the most key thing right now so you can't expect to win when your qbs are tossing higher numbers of ints. Just doesn't happen in the CFL today. 

7 minutes ago, wbbfan said:

They played whole careers with well below what you claimed as the bare min for being a starter, and went to the HOF. that should tell you all you need to know about 2:1 td to int ratio. 

A severe lack as in 3+ guys who ended up in the hof. How many current would end up there? At this rate 2. 

Because of the rule changes towards passing it causes defenses like ours to play more read and react, breaking on the ball and baiting for turn overs.

Career stats are fine and all that... but its better to look at stats when these guys were actually successful starters.  

Rule changes are not increasing turnovers.  You forget the old days of DBs mauling receivers AND still breaking on the ball...

13 hours ago, wbbfan said:

no it isnt. it isnt even the standard for elite qbs. Its a gold standard in the nfl, not in the cfl. Last year was the only year mike reily ever had 2:1 td to int ratio. Jennings hasnt gotten to 2:1 in either year. Harris in ott in 15 didnt get to 2:1. Hank only hit 2:1 a few times in his career. Khari jones never got to a 2:1 ratio either. Ricky ray has only done 2:1 once while playing more then 13 games. 

The NFL and their seemingly infinite pool of prospects will do that....

Only because I love an excuse to talk about it:  today's best QB in the world, Mr.Aaron Rodgers has 333 regular season & playoff TDs vs 82 INTs. 

333 vs 82. 

Better than a 4-1 ratio.  That's just obscene for pro football. 

Before anyone asks, no, I've never heard of this Tom Brady character, 

Just now, Jimmy Pop said:

The NFL and their seemingly infinite pool of prospects will do that....

Only because I love an excuse to talk about it:  today's best QB in the world, Mr.Aaron Rodgers has 333 regular season & playoff TDs vs 82 INTs. 

333 vs 82. 

Better than a 4-1 ratio.  That's just obscene for pro football. 

Before anyone asks, no, I've never heard of this Tom Brady character, 

Image result for tom brady what?

2016 - QBs with 2-1 TD-INT or better

BLM, Nichols, Reilly, Ray, Collaros, Harris, Durant

QBs lower than 2-1

Jennings, Masoli, Burris, Willy, LeFevour, Glenn

Jennings can be excused because of 'growing pains'...  

21 minutes ago, Floyd said:

2016 - QBs with 2-1 TD-INT or better

BLM, Nichols, Reilly, Ray, Collaros, Harris, Durant

QBs lower than 2-1

Jennings, Masoli, Burris, Willy, LeFevour, Glenn

Jennings can be excused because of 'growing pains'...  

Refresh my memory....  what was the win loss records of  Ray, Collaros , Harris and Durant last season?

Numbers are nice to a certain point....   

 

 

17 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Refresh my memory....  what was the win loss records of  Ray, Collaros , Harris and Durant last season?

Numbers are nice to a certain point....   

You mean three QBs that got injured and then one that was on the GC winning team?

If I'm guessing... Collaros numbers were better than Masoli, Durant better than Gale and Ray better than LeFevour

 

3 hours ago, Jimmy Pop said:

The NFL and their seemingly infinite pool of prospects will do that....

Only because I love an excuse to talk about it:  today's best QB in the world, Mr.Aaron Rodgers has 333 regular season & playoff TDs vs 82 INTs. 

333 vs 82. 

Better than a 4-1 ratio.  That's just obscene for pro football. 

Before anyone asks, no, I've never heard of this Tom Brady character, 

That, and far more controlled offensive plays. 

Mr.greenroom lol. The BLM of the nfl. 

3 hours ago, Bigblue204 said:

Image result for tom brady what?

haha. Brady is on the better team/system rogers is the better qb imop.

5 hours ago, Floyd said:

You mean three QBs that got injured and then one that was on the GC winning team?

If I'm guessing... Collaros numbers were better than Masoli, Durant better than Gale and Ray better than LeFevour

 

What was there win loss records?

 

8 minutes ago, Brandon said:

What was there win loss records?

I feel like you've already looked this up and are waiting for an 'im so smart' post...  I know Harris record is .500 with an overtime loss and a last game of the season/backups loss to bombers

But yeah, watching hockey...

57 minutes ago, Floyd said:

I feel like you've already looked this up and are waiting for an 'im so smart' post...  I know Harris record is .500 with an overtime loss and a last game of the season/backups loss to bombers

But yeah, watching hockey...

Nay I'm to lazy and don't have time to check.

If you want an NFL example Colin Kaepernick had 16 TD and 4 int 4:1 ratio and a win loss record of 1-10.

 

On 2017-05-10 at 1:38 PM, Floyd said:

You should take a look at Danny Mac's career...  he's HOF like Burris and Glenn...  journeymen that just hung around for a long time - each maybe have 2-3 really great years out of their whole career

When there was a severe lack of QB talent in the CFL, you could get away with a bad TD:INT ratio...  when you add the fact that the game drastically favours QB/REC over DBs now... there's no excuse.

 

3 GC Rings, 1999 CFL MOP and Grey Cup MVP...

2 minutes ago, TheAardvark said:

3 GC Rings, 1999 CFL MOP and Grey Cup MVP...

q2qgUo1.gif

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