I can't believe I am even making this Thread... 

 

But, it seems to have taken over the politics Thread so I figured we can hash this out here (though the way the conversation was heading about AGW, maybe it should have stayed in the Politics thread...

 

 

So here we go, let's have at it!

 

 

I believe there is overwhelming evidence in AGW and it is a vocal, self-serving minority of the scientific community that derail and muddy up the issue so we can not act in a constructive manner to curtail this global thread.

Edited January 2, 20233 yr by Wanna-B-Fanboy

7 minutes ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

FFS, a judge already ruled that the oil companies had to do it and now that the feds are putting money into it it's b&c time?

Well yeah... oil companies can use that money for stock buy back options and bonuses for the ceos and share holders 

Cloud forcing dominates in the Arctic

Within a matter of hours, the radiative forcing effects from clouds can vary by ±40 W/m² in the Arctic. From one year to the next, cloud radiative effects can vary by 70 W/m² and overall cloud radiative effects can reach 360 W/m² (Ebell et al., 2020).

In contrast, the total accumulated change in net impact from CO2 forcing is only 1.82 W/m² since 1750 (Feldman et al., 2015).

Simply put, cloud forcing radiatively dominates in the Arctic. CO2 is a bit player, at most.

Uh oh, looks like someone has some splaining to do, lol.

 

Cloud cover decline from 1994-2017 “dominates” the warming and ice melt trend

Another new study (Hahn et al., 2020) finds reduced cloud cover from 1994-2017 led to enhanced shortwave radiation (+7.3 W/m²) and drove the warming from the 1990s to mid-2000s.

This shortwave cloud forcing trend is what “dominates” the melt signal for Greenland.

Greenland’s warming trend is shown to taper off into a pause or a slight cooling trend since ~2005.

Likewise, the ice melt trend spiked in 2012 but has been flat (or declining) overall since about 2005 too.

There is thus no clear indication in the scientific literature that atmospheric CO2 concentration changes can even remotely compete with cloud radiative effects as drivers of climate trends over Greenland.

And the same results for Greenland too, can't be a coincidence or bad science when you can replicate the results. Time to scrap the current climate models and get them properly tuned for the clouds.

 

Clouds regulate Greenland’s climate…and models grossly fail to simulate this

According to a new study (Lenaerts et al., 2020), clouds “control the Earth’s hydrological cycle”, “regulate the Earth’s climate”, and drive polar ice melt.

Further, “the surface melt climate is strongly dependent on the representation of clouds and related radiation fluxes“.

Models of cloud effects over Greenland are biased – or wrong – by 25-50 W/m².

Wow, a third study confirming the same as the other two, the evidence is starting to pile up that his has been a very poorly researched subject.

 

Here's what the media reports

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/topstories/parts-of-north-america-are-currently-heading-for-a-megadrought-study-finds/ar-BB12V7E5?ocid=spartandhp

Quote

Based on an analysis of precipitation levels since the turn of the century, and how they match up with soil moisture levels recorded by tree rings over the last 1,200 years, future modelling suggests the southwestern North American (SWNA) region could see a drought that's worse than any in recorded history.

But here's what science actually says,

Is the USA in a “megadrought”? Looking at April 14^th 2020 data from the United States Drought Monitor, it sure doesn’t seem so. While there are indications of some drought in the USA Southwest, there seem to be equally large areas that have no drought conditions at all. And, just one year ago, there were no indications of drought in the southwest USA whatsoever. This might be why Stahle only used data through 2018, because the “no drought” year of 2019 didn’t support the claims of “megadrought”. Cherry picking anyone?

Looking at the USA drought monitor map for summer 1934 and summer 2019, the difference becomes clear.

Using a tree-ring-based drought record from the years 1000 to 2005 and modern records, scientists from NASA and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory found the 1934 drought was 30 percent more severe than the runner-up drought (in 1580) and extended across 71.6 percent of western North America.

Another study suggests that the 1934 dust-bowl drought didn’t even make the top 10 in terms of severity, and another found a “megadrought” in the Southwest USA during the time of the Roman Empire.

With that historical data, it is impossible to claim our use of fossil fuels in the last century is leading to a new megadrought.

 

 

37 minutes ago, pigseye said:

 

 

You know you've made it when your name gets bigger credit then the director.

You're welcome. 

On 2020-04-23 at 12:06 PM, FrostyWinnipeg said:

You know you've made it when your name gets bigger credit then the director.

True that.

 

It was a very good documentary; highly informative,  confirms what we talk about here and pretty much sets out a clear path. I highly recommend it. 

Interesting that the last two months have seem the greatest drop in global average temperature anomaly since satellite records began tracking it. 

Tha tha tha that's all folks, or at least it should be,

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200430113003.htm

Quote

 

The researchers used the CESM2 model to simulate temperatures during the Early Eocene, a time when rainforests thrived in the tropics of the New World, according to fossil evidence.

But the CESM2 model projected Early Eocene land temperatures exceeding 55 degrees Celsius (131 F) in the tropics, which is much higher than the temperature tolerance of plant photosynthesis — conflicting with the fossil evidence. On average across the globe, the model projected surface temperatures at least 6 C (11 F) warmer than estimates based on geological evidence.

 

Just a bunch of hot air. 

So this is their solution?

https://burnedthemovie.com/

 

Just too funny not to share

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/05/are-the-russians-in-the-room-right-now-mann-implies-moore-is-russian-stooge/

 

Man there are some really good studies coming out lately, people really do need to keep up with the times,

Greenland, for example, warmed by 8 to 16°C “within decades or less” 20 or more times during the last 80,000 years (Li et al., 2019). The warming and cooling events may have occurred in the absence of an external an forcing mechanism; instead, they were an “unforced oscillation”. The abrupt climate changes extended throughout the Northern Hemisphere and even into the Southern Hemisphere.

A new study (Lopez-Saez et al., 2020) of the Late-Glacial-Early-Holocene period (about 15,000 to 11,500 years ago) analyzes evidence of tree cover transitions in the western Iberian region (Spain).

Deciduous oak forests were assessed to have abruptly expanded and declined during this period. The established temperature tolerances for this tree species suggest the warming-cooling transitions occurred within decades to centuries, and the climate change amplitudes could reach 2-4°C.

Despite the low and modestly fluctuating CO2 concentrations during this Late-Glacial period (~250 ppm), the evidence suggests regional temperatures were warmer than today 13.9, 12.3, 11.5-11.3, and 10.9 ka cal BP (thousand calibrated years before present).

These pronounced natural climate change events in the paleoclimate record do not support the contention that modern temperture changes are unusual or unprecedented.

 

1 hour ago, pigseye said:

Man there are some really good studies coming out lately, people really do need to keep up with the times,

Greenland, for example, warmed by 8 to 16°C “within decades or less” 20 or more times during the last 80,000 years (Li et al., 2019). The warming and cooling events may have occurred in the absence of an external an forcing mechanism; instead, they were an “unforced oscillation”. The abrupt climate changes extended throughout the Northern Hemisphere and even into the Southern Hemisphere.

A new study (Lopez-Saez et al., 2020) of the Late-Glacial-Early-Holocene period (about 15,000 to 11,500 years ago) analyzes evidence of tree cover transitions in the western Iberian region (Spain).

Deciduous oak forests were assessed to have abruptly expanded and declined during this period. The established temperature tolerances for this tree species suggest the warming-cooling transitions occurred within decades to centuries, and the climate change amplitudes could reach 2-4°C.

Despite the low and modestly fluctuating CO2 concentrations during this Late-Glacial period (~250 ppm), the evidence suggests regional temperatures were warmer than today 13.9, 12.3, 11.5-11.3, and 10.9 ka cal BP (thousand calibrated years before present).

These pronounced natural climate change events in the paleoclimate record do not support the contention that modern temperture changes are unusual or unprecedented.

 

 

 

Check your sources:

 

NoTricksZone

Has this Media Source failed a fact check? LET US KNOW HERE.

 

 

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE

Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence. These sources may be untrustworthy for credible/verifiable information, therefore fact checking and further investigation is recommended on a per article basis when obtaining information from these sources. See all Conspiracy-Pseudoscience sources.

 

• Overall, we rate NoTricksZone a pseudoscience blog based on the publication of climate change disinformation opposing the consensus of science.

 

Detailed Report

Factual Reporting: LOW
Country: Germany
World Press Freedom Rank: Germany 13/180

History

Founded in 2010 by Pierre Gosselin, NoTricksZone is a blog that is skeptical on human influenced climate change. The blog features a tagline that reads “Not here to worship what is known, but to question it – Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany in English.” According to Pierre Gosselin’s about page “I received an Associate Degree in Civil Engineering at Vermont Technical College and a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering at the University of Arizona in Tucson.”

Funded by / Ownership

NoTricksZone is owned by Pierre Gosselin. Revenue is derived through the advertising of skeptical climate change books.

Analysis / Bias

In review, NoTricksZone publishes news and studies that attempt to discredit the consensus of climate scientists that global warming is significantly influenced by humans. Mr. Gosselin does not completely disregard human’s impact on climate change, but states the influence is minimal.

“I do think man’s activities are having a modest impact on the climate and environment, but more through land use and poor waste management practices. So far, however, the data show that the forces of nature (solar and oceanic cycles) totally overwhelm anything man does. Man probably has contributed a few tenths of a degree C warming over the past century, but that likely is more connected to the urban heat island effect.”

NoTricksZone often publishes stories with emotional wording to influence the reader. For example, they often use the term “alarmist” to describe those who support the consensus of science such as this: Alarmist Scientist “Way Off Target” …Arctic Sea Ice/European Winter Claim Refuted By Newly Published Study. They also attempt to personally discredit people based on character traits such as this: Expert Psychiatrist: Greta Being “Misused For Interests” …Parents’ Promotion Of Troubled Child “Ethically Problematic”.

When it comes to climate science, they often publish alternative theories for global warming such as sun spots. They also offer a blogroll that consists of other climate skeptics such as the Climate Depot, Judith Curry and Climate Dispatch. In general, NoTricksZone is a human influenced climate change denial pseudoscience website.

A factual search reveals they have failed a few fact checks.

• Hundreds of papers published in 2017 prove that global warming is a myth. – FALSE
• A total of 58 peer-reviewed papers published in the first half of 2017 conclude that global warming is a myth. – FALSE
• New research shows that scientists are manipulating sea level data to inflate predictions of future sea level rise. – FALSE

Overall, we rate NoTricksZone a pseudoscience blog based on the publication of climate change disinformation opposing the consensus of science. (D. Van Zandt 11/9/2019)

Source: https://notrickszone.com/

 

3 minutes ago, wanna-b-fanboy said:

Check your sources:

It's not about science, it's about pushing personal, uninformed, opinions. That's all. Stupid people pushing stupid ideas. 

18 minutes ago, wanna-b-fanboy said:

 

 

Check your sources:

 

NoTricksZone

Has this Media Source failed a fact check? LET US KNOW HERE.

 

 

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE

Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence. These sources may be untrustworthy for credible/verifiable information, therefore fact checking and further investigation is recommended on a per article basis when obtaining information from these sources. See all Conspiracy-Pseudoscience sources.

 

• Overall, we rate NoTricksZone a pseudoscience blog based on the publication of climate change disinformation opposing the consensus of science.

 

Detailed Report

Factual Reporting: LOW
Country: Germany
World Press Freedom Rank: Germany 13/180

History

Founded in 2010 by Pierre Gosselin, NoTricksZone is a blog that is skeptical on human influenced climate change. The blog features a tagline that reads “Not here to worship what is known, but to question it – Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany in English.” According to Pierre Gosselin’s about page “I received an Associate Degree in Civil Engineering at Vermont Technical College and a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering at the University of Arizona in Tucson.”

Funded by / Ownership

NoTricksZone is owned by Pierre Gosselin. Revenue is derived through the advertising of skeptical climate change books.

Analysis / Bias

In review, NoTricksZone publishes news and studies that attempt to discredit the consensus of climate scientists that global warming is significantly influenced by humans. Mr. Gosselin does not completely disregard human’s impact on climate change, but states the influence is minimal.

“I do think man’s activities are having a modest impact on the climate and environment, but more through land use and poor waste management practices. So far, however, the data show that the forces of nature (solar and oceanic cycles) totally overwhelm anything man does. Man probably has contributed a few tenths of a degree C warming over the past century, but that likely is more connected to the urban heat island effect.”

NoTricksZone often publishes stories with emotional wording to influence the reader. For example, they often use the term “alarmist” to describe those who support the consensus of science such as this: Alarmist Scientist “Way Off Target” …Arctic Sea Ice/European Winter Claim Refuted By Newly Published Study. They also attempt to personally discredit people based on character traits such as this: Expert Psychiatrist: Greta Being “Misused For Interests” …Parents’ Promotion Of Troubled Child “Ethically Problematic”.

When it comes to climate science, they often publish alternative theories for global warming such as sun spots. They also offer a blogroll that consists of other climate skeptics such as the Climate Depot, Judith Curry and Climate Dispatch. In general, NoTricksZone is a human influenced climate change denial pseudoscience website.

A factual search reveals they have failed a few fact checks.

• Hundreds of papers published in 2017 prove that global warming is a myth. – FALSE
• A total of 58 peer-reviewed papers published in the first half of 2017 conclude that global warming is a myth. – FALSE
• New research shows that scientists are manipulating sea level data to inflate predictions of future sea level rise. – FALSE

Overall, we rate NoTricksZone a pseudoscience blog based on the publication of climate change disinformation opposing the consensus of science. (D. Van Zandt 11/9/2019)

Source: https://notrickszone.com/

 

 

14 minutes ago, JCon said:

It's not about science, it's about pushing personal, uninformed, opinions. That's all. Stupid people pushing stupid ideas. 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118305705

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379119310595

Care to comment on the science? Or would you rather just hurl insults all day.

Aw, and we were doing so well just ignoring Pigseye's posts for a while.

https://www.c40.org/press_releases/taskforce-principles

Quote

London, 07 May - Mayors from many of the world’s most powerful cities have warned that the recovery from COVID-19 “should not be a return to ‘business as usual’ - because that is a world on track for 3°C or more of over-heating.”

The C40 group of cities released a statement of principles to shape the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Mayors, representing millions of people worldwide, pledge “to build a better, more sustainable and fairer society out of the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.”

The principles were adopted in the first meeting of C40’s Global Mayors COVID-19 Recovery Task Force, supported by C40 Chair, Mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti, and have been endorsed by scores of city leaders from around the world, including Los Angeles, Athens, Austin, Barcelona, Bogotá, Boston, Buenos Aires, Chicago, Copenhagen, Curitiba, Durban, Freetown, Hong Kong, Houston, Lima, Lisbon, London, Medellín, Melbourne, Mexico City, Milan, Montréal, New Orleans, New York City, Oslo, Portland, Quezon City, Rotterdam, Salvador, São Paulo, San Francisco, Santiago,  Seattle, Seoul, Sydney, Tel Aviv-Yafo and Vancouver .

https://www.c40.org/cities

So much for Antarctica melting,

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720305806?via%3Dihub#!

The study reveals that the AIS extent has been prograded at the rate of 994 m/year with an average 14.5 km increase in the areal extents during 2001–2016, as compared to the year 2001, whereas, the maximum advancement in ice shelf extent was recorded during the 2006–2016 period. Based on the linear regression analysis, the predicted ice shelf extents (i.e., the summer 2021 and 2016) show progradation in all the transects.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-extends-britains-longest-run-without-coal-since-1882-11985130

Quote

For the first time since 1882, Great Britain has gone more than 28 days without using coal, and the lockdown is contributing to keeping power consumption low.

The use of coal power in the UK has been falling for years but the COVID-19 lockdown as well as the warm weather in April have contributed to this long run by reducing power consumption.

 

God the man can write, whether you agree with him or not,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/rex-murphy-only-the-greens-and-separatists-could-find-opportunity-in-a-pandemic/ar-BB13NSBw?ocid=spartandhp

 

Great news for the polar bears, too bad it cost Dr. Crockford her job for speaking the truth,

https://polarbearscience.com/2020/05/08/sea-ice-more-than-1-2m-thick-over-hudson-bay-portends-a-good-year-for-polar-bears/

2 hours ago, pigseye said:

Great news for the polar bears, too bad it cost Dr. Crockford her job for speaking the truth,

https://polarbearscience.com/2020/05/08/sea-ice-more-than-1-2m-thick-over-hudson-bay-portends-a-good-year-for-polar-bears/

Inconclusive.  The predictions are for a polar bear population decline by the middle of this century - although it is nice that the bears had a good winter.  As for the Dr, she is now free to write more for the Heartland Institute. 

2 hours ago, Mark H. said:

Inconclusive.  The predictions are for a polar bear population decline by the middle of this century - although it is nice that the bears had a good winter.  As for the Dr, she is now free to write more for the Heartland Institute. 

And obviously global warming/climate change is a hoax because it snowed in Brandon last night.