Game Time : Tuesday 7PM

Game Story : The Stretch - otherwise known as every game from the All-Star break to the last of the season starts now and the Jet's need to win 70% of their remaining game to make the playoffs. Okay, I'm pulling that 70% out of a bag but people like solid stats.

Local Celebrity Quote of the Game : William S. Burroughs - Junk is the ideal product... the ultimate merchandise. No sales talk necessary. The client will crawl through a sewer and beg to buy.

Helle to start.

 

Edited January 30, 20179 yr by FrostyWinnipeg

Interesting to say the least. 

Copper with the most minutes by any forward and no forward with more than 20 minutes.

40 minutes ago, FrostyWinnipeg said:

Guessing the 2nd one as the other 2 were off Jets.

Ya, he had no chance on the first and third but I can't remember the 2nd to be honest....gotta re-watch...

 

10 hours ago, Ducky said:

which goals should he have stopped...I think he played his best game this year for us.

I didnt make any comment about the stoppability of the goals allowed.  its just an interesting comment on the rose-coloured glasses some people are wearing.  Its possible to have a great game and let in 5 goals.  Its possible to have a bad game and let in 2.  But Pavs is Pavs.  He isnt lighting it up or playing above his career averages.  He's exactly what he always is.  His stats arent good.  But he's winning a few games.

If this continued as is the rest of the way, there will be fans demanding he get re-signed by the Jets (he won't). 

10 hours ago, Goalie said:

Interesting to say the least. 

Ironically maybe having Pavs in nets subconsciously motivates the Skaters in knowing they have to provide increased goal support.

Or maybe he doesn't let in so many goals early that they have to abandon  their style of play to play catch-up  for the for the rest of the game. He stands on his head for us and still doesn't get any credit whatsoever unbelievable.

4 minutes ago, HardCoreBlue said:

Ironically maybe having Pavs in nets subconsciously motivates the Skaters in knowing they have to provide increased goal support.

It's not ironic at all...that's how it works. The team is playing with WAY more confidence, having Pavelec in net. They know they have a guy who's going to keep them in the game, so they're gripping the sticks so tight, worried that one mistake is game over.

I dont think Pavs is directly influencing better play.  I think the combination of hitting rock bottom, players-only meeting, calling up Pavs (indicating a rock bottom mentality) has got the players playing better over-all.  They played well in front of Helle last game too.

13 minutes ago, Noeller said:

It's not ironic at all...that's how it works. The team is playing with WAY more confidence, having Pavelec in net. They know they have a guy who's going to keep them in the game, so they're gripping the sticks so tight, worried that one mistake is game over.

He let in the first shot vs Arizona. It is just hockey. You have 6 seasons of evidence to suggestthat this isn't true at all 

Pavelec now a coach-killer - for other teams!

3 hours ago, Noeller said:

It's not ironic at all...that's how it works. The team is playing with WAY more confidence, having Pavelec in net. They know they have a guy who's going to keep them in the game, so they're gripping the sticks so tight, worried that one mistake is game over.

And that's exactly the problem. They play better in front of the vet who's had numerous opportunities as a #1, but can't play in front of the 2nd year guy who's the future? I think it speaks to lack of confidence in their identity.

Maurice has gushed quite a bit lately about how the team knows who they are now, knows what it takes to win yadda yadda yadda.  The proof is not in the pudding. 

2 hours ago, Goalie said:

He let in the first shot vs Arizona. It is just hockey. You have 6 seasons of evidence to suggestthat this isn't true at all 

Man, if you don't follow @GarretHohl on twitter you missed a doozy last night talking Pavs with fans.

Shockingly there are still people who believe Pavelec is better than 6+ years of stats prove.  

That and some guy hating on Trouba last night make me question the collective sanity of Jets nation. 

3 hours ago, Goalie said:

He let in the first shot vs Arizona. It is just hockey. You have 6 seasons of evidence to suggest that this isn't true at all 

This guy competing with Pav for giving up goal on first shot though he's played 2-3x games.

15 minutes ago, Jimmy Pop said:

Man, if you don't follow @GarretHohl on twitter you missed a doozy last night talking Pavs with fans.

Shockingly there are still people who believe Pavelec is better than 6+ years of stats prove.  

That and some guy hating on Trouba last night make me question the collective sanity of Jets nation. 

Garret Hohl is a mess.  I wouldn't listen to anything he says.

1 minute ago, Atomic said:

Garret Hohl is a mess.  I wouldn't listen to anything he says.

How so?  

29 minutes ago, Jimmy Pop said:

And that's exactly the problem. They play better in front of the vet who's had numerous opportunities as a #1, but can't play in front of the 2nd year guy who's the future? I think it speaks to lack of confidence in their identity.

Maurice has gushed quite a bit lately about how the team knows who they are now, knows what it takes to win yadda yadda yadda.  The proof is not in the pudding. 

Or maybe the guys in the room know something you don't?

59 minutes ago, Jimmy Pop said:

How so?  

He is wildly emotional and immature, especially when it comes to the Jets.  He is one of the top analytics minds out there but even when all these guys were getting hired up by NHL teams, no one would touch him.  You can see why from his feed.  He conducts himself like a teenage message board user.  He is incredibly defensive and that's a really bad thing for someone who is supposed to be impartial and scientific.

3 hours ago, Noeller said:

Or maybe the guys in the room know something you don't?

I don't follow.  

But I certainly don't know more than anyone employed in the organization, so you're right.  Just my $.02

 

2 hours ago, Atomic said:

He is wildly emotional and immature, especially when it comes to the Jets.  He is one of the top analytics minds out there but even when all these guys were getting hired up by NHL teams, no one would touch him.  You can see why from his feed.  He conducts himself like a teenage message board user.  He is incredibly defensive and that's a really bad thing for someone who is supposed to be impartial and scientific.

Different strokes for different folks - though I can get the immature comment.  I mean, it is twitter tho....

What I was referencing earlier from last night all started with:

a) point out Pavs SV% this year

b ) get told,  "What Garret doesn't tell you 2 pp goals, 1 SH breakaway, 1 was weak, 1 lucky deflection" and "need SV% update of when they really need a save"

You can call that immature or emotional.  Frankly, with some of the responses he gets like the 2 mentioned above - I think he holds back on the snark a ton.

Clearly spent way too much time on this response....no, I don't have a horse in the race, never met the guy.  Just find his analysis to be on point.

 

29 minutes ago, Jimmy Pop said:

Different strokes for different folks - though I can get the immature comment.  I mean, it is twitter tho....

You can call that immature or emotional.  Frankly, with some of the responses he gets like the 2 mentioned above - I think he holds back on the snark a ton.

Clearly spent way too much time on this response....no, I don't have a horse in the race, never met the guy.  Just find his analysis to be on point.

The main issue is that he is incredibly defensive and that when there is an issue that cannot be described accurately by currently available metrics, he writes it off as unimportant.  Such as timeliness of saves.  Notice he has no scientific or statistical argument against this... he presents three anecdotal points.  It's always the same with him.  He needs to see the numbers, until the numbers aren't available... then anecdotes become evidence.  Advanced stats are great, they provide a deeper understanding of the game than traditional stats.  But they are not perfect.  There are flaws.  They can't describe the game perfectly.  But Garret won't allow that.  He will say "sure, they aren't perfect" but then if someone tries to point out what the stats may be missing, his answer is always the same - "Nuh uh.  Here's why.  <insert rhetoric>"

18 hours ago, Ducky said:

Copper with the most minutes by any forward and no forward with more than 20 minutes.

Ya, he had no chance on the first and third but I can't remember the 2nd to be honest....gotta re-watch...

 

Just watched the goals again. No chance on the 1st or third. Deflection off of skate on 1st and screened on 3rd and puck comes off of the boards and he hasn't even seen the puck. On the 2nd you hvae a sniper like Tarasenko from 15 feet out dead center of net so ya he could have stopped the 2nd but would have been a huge save. He made a huge save point blank off of Tarasenko after he walked around Trouba and the rebound went to Lehtera? and he made another really good save. We out-goalied them. I still would have put Helle in for the Stars though.

Pavs played well. But we're arguing about his best game of the season where his GAA was 3 and his sv% was 889. 

Stats don't always tell the story especially in small samples. But if that's the best he's got then he's far from the answer. 

Jets shooting percentage with pavelec in net is over 13 percent.  It's not pavelec making a difference at all... it's the Jets scoring more goals that's the difference. I'm not sure how anyone could make an argument that a goalie with a below 900 save percentage and GAA well above 3 inspires confidence. 

Edited February 2, 20179 yr by Goalie

2 hours ago, The Unknown Poster said:

Pavs played well. But we're arguing about his best game of the season where his GAA was 3 and his sv% was 889. 

Stats don't always tell the story especially in small samples. But if that's the best he's got then he's far from the answer. 

I'm not arguing anything.  nowhere do I say he is the answer. I'm stating my opinion. But hey none of our three goalies can goalie so fire Maurice.

Edited February 2, 20179 yr by Ducky

On 1/31/2017 at 9:34 PM, iHeart said:

Again... I think you should save this for April... if Pavs is starting game 1 of a playoff series... you win! 

He's number 9 on the tsn trade bait list.  I doubt he's here April 1st even.