Wanna-B-Fanboy

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/donald-trump-bond-market-impact-1.3850307 To borrow a phrase from the president-elect, there's an apt word to describe the bond market's reaction to the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency. Huge. It's been barely a week since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, and while the U.S. stock market has so far reacted positively to the news, the much larger bond market has taken the opposite view. On the campaign trail, the Republican nominee made waves with his talk of trade wars, higher tariffs and deficit spending. That's prompted fears of higher debt, higher inflation and higher interest rates — three things that are bad news for bond prices. Unlike other asset classes, the price of the bond goes in the opposite direction to what's known as its yield — the amount, in percentage terms, that it will pay out. Loonie falls as investors expect Trump to spend big If investors think America is about to borrow huge amounts of additional debt, they are demanding higher interest rates to loan the government money. "Consider this," Bank of Montreal economist Benjamin Reitzes said Monday: "The price on 30-year Treasury bonds fell nearly five per cent on Wednesday, erasing two full years of coupon payments." The 30-year has since lost another 10 basis points since Reitzes said that. And Canada isn't immune. The Canadian government's 10-year bond saw its yield surge by 27 basis points to 1.43 per cent, Reitzes noted. On the Friday before the election, that bond was priced at 103.10. On Monday, it had slumped to 99.60. Between Friday and Monday, more than $1 trillion US of value has been wiped out of the world's bond market. In the stodgy world of bonds, a fall that dramatic over such a short time period is astounding. Don Pittis: The bond crisis that most people have never heard of "The bond market is supposed to be a dull, boring, stable place," said Colin Lundgren, head of U.S. fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. "Instead, it's been at the centre of the storm." Trump says his deficit spending won't be a problem because he espouses the classic small-government view that tax cuts will be quickly be recouped — and then some — by how much they grow the economy. Michael Lewitt, a bond fund manager who says he voted for Trump, isn't buying it. ANALYSIS: What were we thinking? Of course interest rates have to rise "Cutting taxes and spending more money and not reforming entitlements, that's going to send debt through the roof," said Lewitt of the Credit Strategist Group. "The market is saying he is not going to worry about this, and that's going to be bad for bonds — really bad for bonds." There are other signs that higher rates are coming soon. The U.S. central bank has been telegraphing for months that it planned to hike interest rates at least one more time this year. December was seen as the likeliest time to do so, and that's even more likely since Trump got elected. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, economists who monitor the Federal Reserve now think there's a 92 per cent chance the central bank will hike its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a point when it meets in early December. That's another development that would send bond prices tumbling, and that's exactly what's happened to U.S. government debt in recent days. Investors have dumped 10-year U.S. government bonds, sending their yields soaring from 1.75 per cent to 2.15 per cent in just 36 hours. It typically takes many months for yields to move that much. "The yield on the 10-year Treasury note bottomed out at just below 1.4 per cent this past June," Kroll bond rating agency said in a research note Monday, "but now appears to be headed towards yields almost twice that level as 2016 draws to a close." "The Fed must raise benchmark rates in December merely in order to catch up with [these] bond market moves," Kroll said. Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies and Co., says his take is that Trump's fiscal plan adds up to higher inflation, which will put pressure on bonds. "I think we've topped out as far as the value of bonds," he said, "[and] a pretty high inflation environment in the future." Donald's dilemma: he says he's pro-business, but Wall Street doesn't seem to like him Beyond his plans while in government, others note that the best reason to expect more bond-killing debt under a Trump administration is to look at his track record in the private sector. James Abate, chief investment officer of Centre Asset Management, says Trump made his fortune as a real estate developer by putting up buildings — and borrowing a lot of money to do it. "Project what he's done his entire lifetime, and think of that on government level," said Abate. "He's going to issue debt, and that is what the bond market is spooked about." Donald Trump's win 'bad news for the auto industry,' says David Dodge

We get picks 1 and 5... nice.

I said the same thing to a co-worker not more than 5 mins ago- verbatim.

How to Spot a Wizard Posted September 6th, 2015 @ 7:26am in #Trump kanyewest Over the past few weeks I have presented to you an alternative filter for understanding your world. I make no claim that this filter is a true version of reality, if such a thing even exits. I offer this filter for entertainment only. The fun is seeing how well it fits the data and predicts the future. According to my Moist Robot Hypothesis (that we are programmable meat) and paired with the Master Wizard view of the world, one can imagine a world in which all the big changes in society are engineered by a handful of living wizards at any given time. The wizards, in this context, have learned the rules of hypnosis and persuasion. This knowledge gives them access to the admin passwords for human beings. And they use it. Today I will tell you how to spot a wizard, if such people actually exist. Look for these clues: 1. The wizard succeeds in a high-profile field without the benefit of as much talent as you would expect should be necessary. (This is the biggest tell.) 2. People seem to have an irrational hate for the wizard that is not entirely explained by the wizard’s actions. Regular readers already know these unusual reactions are signs of cognitive dissonance. Wizards induce cognitive dissonance often, without trying. 3. Look for an inflated ego combined with an unusually strong ability to withstand withering criticism. (Wizards get a lot of criticism.) The common view is that wizards are egomaniacs. In reality, the wizard works hard to remain ego-free, and hence can handle criticism well. 4. Wizards are often more ambitious, and often more aggressive, than you think is normal. 5. One or more major PR disasters define the wizard’s history. 6. The wizard has a gift for simplification. 7. Observers detect a reality distortion field. 8. Wizards have an ability to succeed where other fail by changing the entire game as opposed to winning at the existing one. 9. Wizards use words to create images and emotions in people’s minds. 10. Wizards seek public attention. The wizard filter on the world isn’t necessarily true in some objective sense. The fun is seeing if the data and predictions fit the filter. For example, I see the early history of America as a handful of wizards manipulating world events. And I believe they were aware of their powers. And I see Trump as a modern wizard who is baffling the media because he is playing three-dimensional chess on their two-dimensional chess board. Trump is talking directly to people’s subconscious. Everything else he says is just a carrier signal. Someone asked me about Kanye West and his hilarious statement that he would someday run for president. Ridiculous, right? Except that Kanye is a wizard. I spotted him several years ago, and blogged about his genius then. He’s the real deal. And he absolutely has the tools to become president if he makes it a priority. Consider the reaction you are having right now to the idea that Kanye West could be president. Your reaction (plus the fact that he is a legitimate genius) is what tells you he can do it. At least according to my filter. Oh, and he’s a musical superstar who admits he can’t sing well. How did that happen, you ask? Scott

That the USA just elected an internet troll for president, so KBFs future as a politician looks to be fruitful.

What I find sad is that you are a political puppet for the alt-right, who refuses to listen to reason and just spews alt-right diatribes that you have been fed from your fringe-conservative media sources and echo it out into the world. And your smug condescension with your false "two-choices" is just the cherry on top. Again- I applaud your trolling skills, very impressive. you have elevated it to an art form.

So... you are preaching this now? You of all trolls? I find it very rich with irony, that you are preaching this. You are the antithesis of "it's time to stop insulting people that don't think like you, and start listening instead". You are the trolling poster child of insulting people who do not think like you are shouting over them. But I get it, it's your M.O. to troll like that. I accept you as you are. Though i find it ironic that a satirist trolled you harder than you troll.

You know Jonathon Pie is a character right...? He is portrayed by the actor Tom Walker right? Jonathan Pie is a satirical news reporter character created and played by actor Tom Walker.

http://www.vox.com/culture/2016/11/11/13598030/read-leonard-cohen-farewell-letter-marianne-ihlen

How is my statement untrue? even remotely! That's akin to: Please excuse the hyperbole- it would be less funny without it. What? Holy ****- you're trolling. You have got to be in total troll-mode. I am going to assume that your post is trolling, based on the fact that your post resembles a Trump text and that no one is that ignorant. I think I am starting to "get you". I can't believe it took me this long to figure out you are in actuality an online Troll. Heh- ****, that's pretty good man- you had me going for awhile. I though you were one of those Alt-right crazies who channel Ezra Levant's petty rage with no grounding in reality whatsoever. Pretty good But seriously, please stop trolling. This is actually some serious **** here and there is no need to troll for your own pleasure.

Good to see you like to edit reality to suit your own agenda driven narrative. You understand that you appear to be quite the bully with your incessant spamming of alt-right diatribes and intolerance when "the other team" does the same **** that "your team" gets a pass on. you forgot this tweet mere hours before: Yeah- very mature.

Then by that nonsense approach- no one should worry about anything yet. Actually- we have his past actions and statements to go on. People should be very worried and concerned until he does something to assuage the fears he stoked for the past 18 months. How do you just gloss over ALL of the batshit crazy stuff he has said and done these past 18 months?

This is an excellent perspective on the current situation in the US. ******* nailed it. http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/spurs/article/Gregg-Popovich-uncensored-Discusses-the-10609311.php#item-38489

Not sure how you came to the "reporting gleefully" conclusion- I think it's your inner Ezra influencing your perception of reality. Raging where no raging is needed. How is this the liberal media echo chamber? I am certain that there is no "liberal media echo chamber speaking" here. She has valid concerns and you shouldn't be so dismissive of them. Of course her Granddaughters' future is not of any importance for you, but it means a great deal to her. These are in fact actual things for her to worry about.

It's actually a very thoughtful post

Well it's a good thing we have a Liberal Majority here in Canada with this guy: See, that is what a great world leader is.

Nice! Love Luc Besson. Looks like a fun movie.

****... where did I see that same list? Oh yeah, this tweet:

Yeah- I stand by it.

Democrat, republican, independent- he is still a terrible person. I am not blindly going by party lines- If it was Kaisic Vs Clinton, I would have hoped Kaisic to be elected. And in that scenario- I would have lambasted people who voted for Clinton, because it is the choice you make between the two decisions that count.

That is certainly an improvement, cuz **** the environment(!) amirite? I don't think this is going to work. He can't unilaterally dictate the terms on imported goods...

Not Scratching- just shaking my head in disgust. Anyone that chooses that shitbird to represent them is a terrible person.

Most racist, misogynist, homophobes and bigots and everyday shitbirds view themselves as non-racist, non-misogynist, non-homophobes,non-bigots and everyday ordinary people- so this example is moot. And why is yelling the only way to convey that some one is being a racist, misogynist, homophobes and bigots and everyday shitbirds? You can just tell them plainly and call them on that mindset. And yeah- many people who voted for Trump are gullible. Most people who voted for Trump are terrible people.

I am still trying to figure out what his New and improved economic plan is. Please inform me- but only if it is a viable one and not empty rhetoric to appease the masses like "Lock her up!"