HS Coach Never Punts….Team's Record? 124-22

[Mr Dee]

Kevin Kelley, the Little Rock, AR (Pulaski Academy) football coach whose team never punts, and always goes for the onside kick.

Kelley says his research has shown that by not punting or kicking off, his team has a 15 percent better chance of winning any given game.

Pulaski recovers onside kicks at a rate of 20 percent, and has a fourth-down conversion rate of 50 percent. On kickoffs, Kelley says his philosophy is worth it because he determined that by kicking deep, opposing teams were getting the ball on the average at the 33 yard-line. When the other team recovered onside kicks, the average starting spot was the 47 — a difference of only 14 yards. Kelley figured 14 yards was well worth it for the 20 percent return in successful onside kick recoveries.

 

An Example?

The Bruins visited the Cabot Panthers, one of the best teams in Arkansas and a school with roughly five times the student body of Pulaski

With Kelley calling plays, Pulaski scored on its first drive. Naturally, the Bruins then attempted an onside kick, which they recovered. Soon, they scored another touchdown. They repeated the drill -- onside kick, recovery, touchdown -- again. And then again. With 8:35 left in the 12-minute first quarter, Cabot trailed Pulaski 29-0 and had yet to run a play from scrimmage.

 

The Times recently cited a paper by David Romer (PDF), a professor of political economy at the University of California at Berkeley, that has become “the gospel for the antipunting faction.” Romer’s determination, after studying punt data from 1998 to 2004, was that teams should never punt when facing fourth down with less than four yards to go for the first, regardless of where they are on the field. Other analysis has suggested that teams should never punt from inside their opponent’s forty-yard line. As a corollary, they should always go for a touchdown, rather than a field goal, from inside the five-yard line.

http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9970245/grantland-channel-coach-never-punts

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/scorecasting/09/15/kelley.pulaski/index.html#ixzz2ojeiaiOw

 

Statisticians say teams shouldn't automatically punt. Fans say they want to see a more exciting game. Recruits would surely love to play for a school pitching endless high-pressure offensive and defensive situations.

What do you think?

 

[braddman19]

Interesting read.

[iso_55]

That would never work at the college or pro level. For every game Kelley would win with this strategy, he'd lose 10 & be out of a job. It's HS football so really anything goes. At the higher & elite levels, field position wins games. Giving up instant field position on an unsuccessful short KO or failed fourth down conversions are killers.

[Mr Dee]

That would never work at the college or pro level. For every game Kelley would win with this strategy, he'd lose 10 & be out of a job. It's HS football so really anything goes. At the higher & elite levels, field position wins games. Giving up instant field position on an unsuccessful short KO or failed fourth down conversions are killers.

 

Ah, but that's there's the rub.

Statistically, the odds are more in favour than one would think.

It's just that nobody has the balls to try it.

Everybody is willing to say it won't work at an upper level, and indeed it may not, but the if you read more articles or opinions on the subject, the reason becomes more clearer.

All the coaches are scared to try it.

And who can blame them with the salaries they make.

 

But if you've watched NFL games lately, more and more, FG decisions are being booed by the fans because they want to gamble more and go for the 1st down.

Not always, but the tide is turning.

 

On a related note, at one time, it was figured that for every punt in an Oakland Raider game, it cost something like $50,000 per punt because of how much they paid their punter.

I believe they were the first team to draft a punter in the 1st round.

Interesting stuff.

[iso_55]

How many times have we seen a short KO work? I'd say it's at the minimum a 4 to 1 or a 5 to 1 odds it won't work. Probably more like 6 or 7 to 1 that it doesn't work. Say the Bombers went this route with odds like that against the Stampeders with their high powered offense. We'd give Calgary field instant position to start their drives if we don't recover & then what will the score be? Not close as we'd be hammered.

As far as punts go, sure. Punting on third & 2??? Why not? I'd go for it, even on third & three. Chances are a team would get the first down on third & 2... Most times. Unless they hand the ball off 5 yards deep. With backs like Harris, Logan, Kackert, Sheets, Gable & Cornish I always thought that CFL teams should gamble more in situations like that instead of always punting.

[17to85]

I'd say that kind of thing works in high school because it's freakin high school! Yeah not punting might work out for an offence now and then, but in professional ranks teams are so well prepared (insert bomber joke here) that you're not going to catch them off guard with any of this and the talent level is much more balanced. I imagine that highschool football has a lot of talent disparities and can rely one a couple really really talented kids to just dominate. 

[Brandon]

I think the only thing that might work is the onside kick within the NFL....  but not every time just a more frequent basis would be a good tactic for a team like the 49ers who have a fantastic defense.

[Jpan85]

Onside kicks work 10% of the time in the NFL. What would a high school punter average 30 yards a punt that makes a huge deal too.

[iso_55]

Onside kicks work 10% of the time in the NFL. What would a high school punter average 30 yards a punt that makes a huge deal too.

Yes, so 1 out of 10 onside kicks works. The other 9? Well, it would mean a team like the Argos with Ricky Ray would start their drives at midfield which means they'd score an awful lot. In HS, if you can average 30 yards a punt, you're doing good. More like 20 to 25. Not many great punters at that level. Most HS punters can't punt. They just make contact & hope for the best. I coached at the HS level & I always believed in field position... Let the other team go that extra 20 to 25 yards. They may score but they may not... They still have to make up the yards instead of giving the ball up on a turnover because we never got the first down. It does make a difference. 

[Mr Dee]

The closest I've seen Can. teams gamble on 3rd down always seem to come from the Alouettes. 

When they are trailing and motivated, and with Calvillo, they don't seem worried to push the bar, so to speak, because they have been a confident and cocky bunch.

 

Just remember how many times there have been situations where you have questioned the play call to punt.

 

Obviously, in higher levels of F/ball, there are only certain situations where punting should not be punted. But with all the necessary facts and statistics behind a coach's decision, I definitely would like to see more gambling.

 

That same thinking goes into situations where a team is trailing and has all 3 downs to use because they have nothing to lose.

Many, many times, teams are successful and move down the field to score.

Of course, this is based on a team being able to move the ball in the 1st place.

 

Offensive thinking changes when you know you have all 3 downs to move the ball, not just two. 

 

And on a Bomber's note, onside kicking probably would only have made a difference of 10-12 yards. (other teams getting the ball around the 40 as opposed to around the 50-52 on unsuccessful tries)

[17to85]

That same thinking goes into situations where a team is trailing and has all 3 downs to use because they have nothing to lose.

Many, many times, teams are successful and move down the field to score.

but that's not JUST because of an offense. In a lot of those situations the defense is protecting a lead and playing more passively to try and avoid making a huge mistake and giving a big play. 

 

I can see the merit in gambling some of the time though. There are lots of situations where you're probably just as far ahead to go for it as to kick it away but it really depends on a lot of factors.

[Mr Dee]

 

That same thinking goes into situations where a team is trailing and has all 3 downs to use because they have nothing to lose.

Many, many times, teams are successful and move down the field to score.

but that's not JUST because of an offense. In a lot of those situations the defense is protecting a lead and playing more passively to try and avoid making a huge mistake and giving a big play. 

 

I can see the merit in gambling some of the time though. There are lots of situations where you're probably just as far ahead to go for it as to kick it away but it really depends on a lot of factors.

 

 

If a team was properly prepared to use those factors in their favour, then they could take advantage of short yardage situations to get 1st downs and TDs.

I'm surprised that teams don't have special plays for short gains and goal-line plunges.

I mean, other than the old shot-gun-formation-handoff-5-yards-deep standby.

[iso_55]

 

 

That same thinking goes into situations where a team is trailing and has all 3 downs to use because they have nothing to lose.

Many, many times, teams are successful and move down the field to score.

but that's not JUST because of an offense. In a lot of those situations the defense is protecting a lead and playing more passively to try and avoid making a huge mistake and giving a big play. 

 

I can see the merit in gambling some of the time though. There are lots of situations where you're probably just as far ahead to go for it as to kick it away but it really depends on a lot of factors.

 

 

If a team was properly prepared to use those factors in their favour, then they could take advantage of short yardage situations to get 1st downs and TDs.

I'm surprised that teams don't have special plays for short gains and goal-line plunges.

I mean, other than the old shot-gun-formation-handoff-5-yards-deep standby.

 

I absolutely hate that play. It's like offensive coordinators lose their minds on the goal line.... They have a yard to go for a TD or a first down & they hand off in the gun 7 yards deep or from  the pistol 4 yards deep & get stuffed. Well, duh???

[Mark H.]

There must be a reason why teams hand off five yards deep on short yardage. Maybe it's because shotgun is used 99% of the time in the CFL. When you do line up under centre, the D knows a short yardage play is coming. IMO it's like running the ball every time you have two tight ends out there. After a while it works against you.

[Mr Dee]

When you're trying to get a yard or so, anywhere on the field, you should be able to do it every time.

I would like to see us use a FB with our TB to give us more options and a more direct push.

 

The only time I can see a team failing to get one yard…is against our D. 

[Mark H.]

When you're trying to get a yard or so, anywhere on the field, you should be able to do it every time.

I would like to see us use a FB with our TB to give us more options and a more direct push.

 

The only time I can see a team failing to get one yard…is against our D. 

 

I should clarify: I'm referring to 2nd and two or 2nd and three. I can see why teams would run some shotgun in that scenario.

 

And dare say a regular FB isn't coming back any time soon. But I agree that it's a good option and could even help the ratio.

[Mr Dee]

I'd love to see us throw Fitz(gerald) in packages designed for run or pass, especially in those short second down situations.

[TrueBlue]

We should try it during a pre-season game and see what happens...

[Mark H.]

We should try it during a pre-season game and see what happens...

 

You want to be very careful with that...they might blitz...

[road griller]

I am all for going for it on 3rd way more than teams do right now but not punting from your own 20 is not a good move.  From your 50 to their 35 is a good spot to play 3 down football imo.

 

The onside thing is out of the question.

 

Gambling a lot puts the other team on edge on several plays during the game, adding that much more for their prep during the week.

 

That is one reason I am looking forward to MO Coaching this team.

[iso_55]

There's gambling & then there's being stupid on 3rd down.... I think if a team is running all over another team then why not go on third & 2??? Yet, teams all punt on 3rd & 1 which is frustrating to watch. Nothing more I hate than a team that is moving the ball,  going 2 & out then punting on short yardage from the 50 yard line on the other side of center field.. When Jon Cornish is chewing up  huge yards then why not gamble more?

[road griller]

Exactly, you can't have a pattern imo.  If you keep them guessing then you are going to make them over think everything taking up precious practice time.

 

Why not go deep on 2nd and 2/3?  Not every time but at least once a game, from a different spot every time that way they  are always defending it.

 

Just let the receiver know, if its an int. make sure you knock it down if you are not in a position to make a tackle.  Then punt if you need to.

 

Judging by the way MO has Coached the teams I can see him being that guy.  At least we will have exciting football for a change.    

[iso_55]

I think O'Shea will be conservative most of the time. Field positions win game & he'll live & die by that credo but throw in the element of surprise every once in awhile. I think we'll see that. The biggest, ballsiest call by a head coach I ever saw was the short KO by the Saints Sean Payton in the Super Bowl to start the second half. That's what wins championships.

[Mark H.]

I remember Don Matthews going for two when kicking a convert would have tied the game. He decided to go for the win right then and there...and lost.

[Fraser]

when I play slow pitch I always run home.The third baseman could have the ball and I still go for it if they even slightly bobble it. I think I've gotten thrown out twice. catcher is where they put someones gf who ironically can't catch.

how would that work in the majors?