TrueBlue4ever

Canada-wide stats for April 5: 1,600 new cases today (Highest daily total to date) and 49 more deaths (second highest daily total to date).

1) I was not JUST arguing that Canada is not doing well. I have NEVER made that argument. I have argued that those who have said that the measures taken are unnecessary because it is media hype are ignoring the seriousness of the threat and not following the raw data on the exponential progression of the spread. You wanted to, in my mind, minimize the risk by saying the fatality rate was only 0.017%, according to your own data, and you were flat out wrong in reading your own stats. The lockdown is working, but where you and I may differ is that you act like the measures can now stop because it has worked and we are out of the woods. I see it getting worse before it gets better, based on where the curve is going now and based on how other countries who started feeling the effects of the virus months ahead of us have turned out. If it is starting to plateau, great, but that means we stay the course until the threat has really passed rather than saying back to work since we are on top of it today. 2) Given your accusation of me flip-flopping on arguments, thought I’d refresh your memory on your time frame for the passing of the virus in your opinion. In the span of one day and 3 posts you went from Easter to start of May to June as the all clear period So you can’t even hold to your own story when it is questioned. 3) Just for the record, I do have a Government job, as does my wife. We are both essential services, me for law enforcement and her in a health care being called to multiple hospitals to care for patients, including testing patients for Covid 19. So neither of us are sitting in our house collecting a cheque, we don’t get that option to work from home and are forced to still go into the community at large and expose ourselves every day to those who may her the virus, certainly her more than me. We’ve even moved out of our house and are living in cottage country so as to separate ourselves from our kids to protect them. She is a nervous wreck every day leaving the house, and because the governing health agency has decided masking is not essential for health care workers, and they won’t employ the use of the filtered masks, and won’t test every person who shows symptoms because they may not qualify (ie did not also travel), she has had to buy her own limited supply of 95 grade masks and filters out of her pocket. Not sure what she’ll do when she runs out.

It's not either-or. We find a compromise between "hide away for 2 years" and "just accept it so go about business as usual". Canada is doing well BECAUSE we have put stringent, extreme measures like stay-at-home orders in place. I'll come out when the medical experts say it is safe to do so, and not follow your guesstimate of "by May Covid will be done". Every person who wants to get back to normal now is simply going to prolong the effects of transmission by ignoring social distancing. And once a vaccine is in place then maybe it can be treated like another flu (and the only hard numbers I have heard are 12-18 months for it to be in place, Trump's grand "gut feeling" pronouncements notwithstanding). But until then, stay put is the best course of action.

Speaking of information distortion.... Don't move the goalposts. You were talking about Canada, not just BC (which was one month ahead of almost every province except Ontario, and which had more cases earlier than all other provinces (here is my source on that): https://globalnews.ca/news/6627505/coronavirus-covid-canada-timeline/ Go back and look at the graphs in the very data you are providing. On a linear projection, both cases and deaths are still showing an upward increase progression - curve is still going up. Using the logarithmic progression, the actual cases are slowing the curve but it hasn't flattened yet, and deaths are tracking on a steady upward line. You are mis-reading the data, that is my argument (which you already acknowledged by quoting a 0.017% death rate as a typo - you were off by a factor of 100 times - or 10,000%). We peaked at 59 daily deaths on April 2, but already have 27 deaths today (April 5) and it's only 11 am, that puts us on track to equal our worst day yet. And we had over 1,550 new cases on April 2 and after a one day dip were back to 1,537 yesterday. on pace today so far for over 1,100. This isn't anywhere near slowing down yet. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/ It seems your overriding concern is about what will happen to your money - it seems to fuel those who dislike measures to slow global warming and have commented in that thread, like it's a sinister plot designed only to be a cash grab. Well, I heard economic doom and gloom in 1987 after Black Monday when the Dow dropped down to 1,800 points, and again in 2008 when the housing market crashed and the Dow was at 6,000 points. It seems to have bounced back nicely both times, even with the recent dip. Long term, prices will rise and stock market numbers historically have always seemed to go up. People aren't expected to bounce back from death in the same way.

You’re not even reading your own data properly. The death rate is 1.7% of cases, not 0.017% (when you use a calculator and divide, the number 0.01 as an answer is the same as 1%, you have to move the decimal place over two places to the left). And if you scroll down and see the graphs below, it shows the curve still spiking, not flattening. We just had our two highest daily new case totals (over 1,500 each day) in the last 3 days. No flattening yet. And if you say 1.7% is still low (Flu is 0.1% fatality rate, so this is 17 times more deadly) it in fact is compared to the global rate of 4.5-5%, but remember that the US fatality rate was at about 1.3% just over a week ago and is now 2.6-2.7%. This will happen as the testing can’t keep up with the number of actual cases out there, lowering the true infection rate, and also because hospitals are getting overloaded and can’t treat everyone properly so more are now dying. In Italy 3 weeks ago they had a cutoff number - if you needed a ventilator they would check your age due to limited supply, and if you were over 65 they just did not put you on one because they had only so many to go around and decided that the younger had a better chance to recover so that was the arbitrary cut off point. And in New York 2 days ago a doctor said they had their first deaths as a result of having to share ventilators between 9 patients and it was not sufficient enough to keep one critically ill patient alive because of the rationing, where they could have survived if they had had their own ventilator full-time.

COVID-19 still around means social distancing. Social distancing means no communal church service. No church service means no collection.

Good catch!

Getting into these spats with Trump at his conferences doesn't help. Even if the question is legit, the pre-amble is set up to rile him "You have said ABC and it is contradicted by DEF, so my question is (irrelevant by then because it is simply masking the intent which is to draw out his hypocriscy/incompetence/goal post moving/failure, etc.). He gets to play the victim which plays to his base and validates his claim that the fake news media is just out to get him. So when his cronies says the Dems want deaths to go up just to spite Trump, his base buys in. The old adage "don't argue with an idiot, they'll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience" applies here. Unfortunately, the media, even in the guise of wanting the truth out there, still worry about ratings and costs, so they are happy to have panel discussions on the cheap rather than investigative journalism to fill their 24 hour news cycle. And Trump pressers are the new "if it bleeds it leads" car crash. People tune in to see the latest fight and be horrified by the latest Trump "how low can I sink" moment. States are not getting resources, and the trending on Twitter is about Trump's TV ratings and how the Royals may or may not want secret service protection and how dare Americans pay for it. A freeze out would be so much more healthy for the nation, but not for the networks, Trump, or the advertisers.

Another presser, another attack on a reporter, not surprisingly a black female. Kudos to her colleague who handed her the mike after Trump cut her off her so she could ask her remaining question. Nice show of solidarity. Here is what I would love to see. Rather than boycott, show up and DIRECT ALL QUESTIONS to Dr. Fauci. Freeze Trump out. If (when) Trump tries to cut him off and answer the question himself, just re-direct back to Fauci and ask "Do you concur, or do you have a different answer?" Get the stats on back-to-work days, supply needs, and words of comfort to the nation from him, not Trump. I'd bet dollars to donuts Trump would be more flummoxed and bothered by being ignored than Fauci would be cowed or embarrassed by contradicting Trump in public when trying to get useful info out to the general populace. Then the next day when Trump returns, undoubtedly without Fauci in tow (which we already have precedent for), before he even gets started just ask "Will Dr. Fauci be present for questions today?" and when Trump says no, or says he'll take all questions, or floats out Birx, then the reporters should stand up en masse and walk out. Maybe even a parting shot of "Will he be back tomorrow?" as they are leaving. Repeat this walk-out every day as long as Fauci is blackballed, and repeat the questioning tactic every day when he is there. Let's face it, nothing of value will be missed if they walk out on a Trump-only press conference. And his precious ratings will take a dip as well if no one is covering him.

But the President just assured me a few weeks ago that this was another type of flu, and we don't shut down the country for the flu, and it kills 12,000-61,000 Americans every year, so this was overblown hype. Where does this 100,000-200,000 come from now? Was he mistaken? Should I have actually been self-isolating instead of carrying on as normal because it was fake news stuff? Oops, sorry. I guess that was a nasty "gotcha" question.

And Gary Larson is going to sue you for plagiarism.

Well, this was a letdown. Here is the wrap-up of the regular season and playoffs simulation. I can't even...... https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-wrapping-up-the-regular-season-and-handing-out-the-stanley-cup

Anyone want to tell those dead people and their relatives that these are just fake exaggerated numbers from the WHO and Johns Hopkins in a scheme to falsely induce panic and jack up pharma costs?

https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-capitals-close-in-on-clinching-metropolitan-panthers-maple-leafs-deadlocked-in-atlantic March 26 - Preds win to move into the #2 wild card spot, and the Wild lose to put a dent into their playoff chances. In the East, Washington wins and takes over top spot in the league. And a win over Detroit means the Philadelphia Flyers clinch a playoff spot. Apparently THN is going to finish off the whole sim thing tomorrow rather than drag it out for the next couple of months. Like they are so busy with other things?

https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-lightning-take-over-top-spot-in-the-nhl-kuemper-blanks-golden-knights March 25 - Slow night in the Western wild card chase. Canucks lose, Flames get an OT loss, and Oilers win. Coyotes also win to climb back into the hunt. In the East, Tampa has a big night, blanking the Leafs to move into top spot in the Atlantic, #1 overall in the NHL, and that also means the Tampa Bay Lightning have clinched a playoff spot.

I did this already in the CFL thread when you started spouting off words like "hype" and "hyperbole". But here it is again (note that this was written last Saturday night): Here are numbers from Johns Hopkins’ website, which along with the WHO is a reputable site for accurate reporting (according to medical professionals and health experts who are on the front lines of dealing with this - full disclosure, I am married to one of those health professionals in this Province). Remember a couple of weeks back when Trump said they had 5 cases in the USA and would be at zero by April? Well four days ago they had 9,000 cases and 130 deaths. Three days ago it was 12,000 and 155 or so deaths. Two days ago it jumped to 14,250 and 205 deaths. Yesterday it was 19,000 and 260. As of now it is 25,500 cases and 307 deaths. That progression is the problem. Numbers are artificially low as well since there isn’t full testing yet. So cases are climbing at a rate of around 33% daily now and deaths are jumping at a rate of around 25%. Italy was at 3,000 deaths two days ago and are now at 4,800. That’s a 60% jump in two days. They had 41,000 cases yesterday and 58,000 today. So first of all, spare me the “flu has many more deaths than this in a year” BS. We are basically two weeks into the exponential growth stage. Extrapolate over a year without the “hype and overreaction” of locking down cities and guess where we end up? At a 30% progression rate, in one week from today the US has gone from 25,500 cases to 166,000. Fortunately the US death rate is about 1.3% of all cases, not the global rate of around 3.5-4 %, or Italy’s 8.5%, so we are talking “only” 2,150 dead next week, so yeah a 700% increase in one week. Canada is doing slightly better per capita, but the growth is similar. Or we can all quarantine and hope to slow those numbers. The video was posted on March 4, as has been pointed out. Of course the numbers were much lower then. What he was saying wasn't wrong on that day, but he was not factoring in the growth of the virus in his answer. Trump was saying in that week that they had 15 cases, soon to be zero, which seems to be the line of thinking you are following. We can see just how completely wrong he was saying that looking at where we are at today. My point was that the progression, left unchecked by ignoring social distancing recommendations, was going to overwhelm the system. You call it hyperbole to predict this massive influx of cases. Well, let's look at where the numbers have gone since last Saturday night. From Saturday night until last night, we have seen: Cases jump daily from 25,500 to 36,000 to 52,000 to 69,000 as of Wednesday night (all numbers from Johns Hopkins website if you want the source) Deaths jump from 307 to 424 to 700 to 932 as of Wednesday night. So my prediction of a daily 30% increase has held up. These are raw numbers. Not conjecture. Not hyperbole. And this despite people already taking some social distancing measures. The effects of it to flatten the curve won't be seen for a few weeks since the cases are already in the system and you can be symptom-free for a couple of days and have it and spread it. Trump wants to open up the US again in 2 weeks. That will negate any effect to socially distance, and the numbers will keep rising. If the numbers start to taper off from the 30% daily rate, my guess is that it won't solely be due to the virus slowing down but rather that the testing won't keep up. So if we fall short of the 166,000 cases reported by this coming Saturday night, I'd be more confident saying that it is because they just didn't do testing for every person who actually has it rather than the virus is dying off. As a comparison, here is the progression in Canada since March 12 up to yesterday: Are you starting to get the picture now?

Have a ton of them, many memorable moments, was in Halifax when Milt broke the TD record so that one isn’t part of it. My favourite live game may now be last year’s West Final in Regina that I drove out for. But my best memory is October 9, 2005. My dad had turned 77 years old a few weeks earlier, and it was the Bombers’ 75th anniversary commemorative game. He had taken me to games for some two and a half decades, so I was just getting to the stage where I started to pay for the season ticket package to pay him back for all the years he had done it. We always wore our headsets to listen to the radio broadcast (I actually started doing it because I didn’t want to hear all the swearing around me as a young impressionable boy) from our East side seats, and he asked me on a few occasions where Bob and Bob (Irving and Cameron) broadcast from. So I thought a neat birthday present would be to show him. Called up Carol at the club offices, and asked if it would be possible to get a brief tour. She was wonderful as always and told us to get to the stadium an hour early and she would walk us through press row and the broadcast area. So we got a tour of the club offices and escorted up to media row, and down the hallway to where the CJOB booth was. Little did I know that she had made another request for my dad, one that she had hinted at to me but wasn’t sure could be pulled off since the pre-game broadcast was on when we arrived. As we got to the booth, we saw both Bobs and Mitch doing their pre-game thing, when they went to commercial, and Bob Irving came out and chatted up my dad for a few minutes, funnily enough more about family stuff rather than football, but Bob was as gracious as could be and giving of his time right in the middle of what was a broadcast session, and my dad was on cloud 9. My dad would pass away 12 years later to the day, so he never saw the drought end, but that was the best present I could ever give him and was the best memory I could ever have, thanks to the Bomber and CJOB staff. And yeah, everyone else knows that game as the Milt Stegall 4 catch, 4 TD game against BC, so it really put a bow on the day. Most magical memory of all for me.

That was 1984. Lions had minus 50 yards of offence in the first half. Aaron Brown had 4 sacks too that game.

Another interpretation could be that people are falsely saying they DID travel when they didn’t, because even with symptoms they won’t be tested if they haven’t travelled, so they lie to get the test done.

Who (if pressed for the truth) says some don’t exist already?

https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-panthers-leapfrog-maple-leafs-in-atlantic-central-division-battle-heats-up After missing a day in quarantine, THN renewed its simulated season. March 23 - The Wild pulled off a big win to push for the final wild card spot, gaining on the Canucks who lose. Calgary also wins, beating San Jose, and with that loss California will not be represented in the playoffs as the San Jose Sharks are eliminated. Also of note, Toronto is now outside the playoff line as Florida leapfrogs them into 3rd in the Atlantic. March 24 - The Jets squander a chance to virtually guarantee a wild card spot, losing 6-2 to the Predators. Still, they hold a 4 point edge on the pack behind them. The only other game of consequence in the West has the Stars lose. Two other clubs settled their fate in the East, as a win over the Blues means the Washington Capitals have clinched a playoff spot, while a loss to Buffalo means the Montreal Canadiens are eliminated.

Well, considering that Mosca (a) told him to shove the peace offering flower up his ass, (b) swatted it away when offered it a second time, and (c) swung a metal cane at Kapp's face (and connected enough to knock his glasses off) in response to having a flower swatted in his face, he got what he deserved IMO.

March 22 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-ovechkin-hat-trick-downs-penguins-jets-snaps-stars-streak Go Jets Go! Wish the real season was going as well as the simulated one, as the Jets down the red-hot sim Stars 4-1 to move within 4 points of 3rd in the Central, while opening up a 4 point lead on the Canucks for the top wild card spot. In fact, Winnipeg has more points than the #2 and 3 teams in the Pacific. Other big games see the Preds lose to Chicago to fall 6 back of Winnipeg, while the Coyotes win and are 8 behind the Jets and 4 out of the wild card chase (so is Chicago). Also, a Hurricanes loss to the Islanders means that the Boston Bruins clinch a playoff spot, and it also eliminates the New Jersey Devils and the Buffalo Sabres. Finally, a loss means the Los Angeles Kings are eliminated.

Here are numbers from Johns Hopkins’ website, which along with the WHO is a reputable site for accurate reporting (according to medical professionals and health experts who are on the front lines of dealing with this - full disclosure, I am married to one of those health professionals in this Province). Remember a couple of weeks back when Trump said they had 5 cases in the USA and would be at zero by April? Well four days ago they had 9,000 cases and 130 deaths. Three days ago it was 12,000 and 155 or so deaths. Two days ago it jumped to 14,250 and 205 deaths. Yesterday it was 19,000 and 260. As of now it is 25,500 cases and 307 deaths. That progression is the problem. Numbers are artificially low as well since there isn’t full testing yet. So cases are climbing at a rate of around 33% daily now and deaths are jumping at a rate of around 25%. Italy was at 3,000 deaths two days ago and are now at 4,800. That’s a 60% jump in two days. They had 41,000 cases yesterday and 58,000 today. So first of all, spare me the “flu has many more deaths than this in a year” BS. We are basically two weeks into the exponential growth stage. Extrapolate over a year without the “hype and overreaction” of locking down cities and guess where we end up? At a 30% progression rate, in one week from today the US has gone from 25,500 cases to 166,000. Fortunately the US death rate is about 1.3% of all cases, not the global rate of around 3.5-4 %, or Italy’s 8.5%, so we are talking “only” 2,150 dead next week, so yeah a 700% increase in one week. Canada is doing slightly better per capita, but the growth is similar. Or we can all quarantine and hope to slow those numbers. And since my spouse is essential services and treating those who have or will get this virus which has no known vaccines, and since the powers that be don’t have or bother to have proper filtered masks for those who test due to short supply, I’ll see your high risk with my family’s own. It is very personal and real to me. So excuse me if “I. Don’t. Give. You. A. Break.”, f*ck you very much. I don’t need another person who could infect my spouse walking around because they think this is all hype. At the very least, get off these boards and stop downplaying the risk. Sorry to everyone else for hijacking the thread. I'll keep my further comments to the COVID-19 thread.

Came across this while web surfing. The Hockey News has taken to the gaming world to see how the regular season would have finished up in a simulated exercise. Using EA Sports NHL 20, they have played all of the suspended games to track how teams would finish up the aborted regular season. Injuries have not been accounted for, so rioters are not completely accurate, but it is the best we have right now. As of March 11, the West wildcard race and the relevant players were as follows: Dallas 82 PTS, 69 GP (3RD Cen.) 😃 Calgary 79 PTS, 70 GP (3RD Pac.) 😃 Winnipeg 80 PTS, 71 GP (1 WC) 😃 Nashville 78 PTS 69 GP (2 WC) 😃 Vancouver 78 PTS, 69 GP 😩 Minnesota 77 PTS, 69 GP 😩 Arizona 74 PTS, 70 GP 😩 Chicago 72 PTS, 70 GP 😩 Here is how the games have gone since the season was halted: March 12 and 13 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-what-would-happen-if-the-nhl-continued-to-play-behind-close-doors Of note, Stars, Wild, Flames (in OT) win, Preds lose, and Coyotes beat Canucks on the 12th. On the 13th, Canucks win, Hawks lose. Canucks now in the 2 WC spot , Preds out. March 14 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-flyers-stay-white-hot-in-pursuit-of-top-spot-in-metropolitan-division Hawks lose and are really out of the running now, great night for the Jets who beat Calgary 7-4, and see the Preds, Wild, and Coyotes lose. Stars win. March 15 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-power-shifts-in-the-metropolitan-wilds-wild-comeback-puts-playoffs-in-sight Jets lose 4-2 in Vancouver, and the Wild beat the reeling Preds. Canucks now 3rd in Pac., Jets 1 WC, Flames 2 WC, with Minny 1 point out. And the Ottawa Senators are officially eliminated in the East. March 16 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-rangers-continue-push-for-playoff-spot-blue-jackets-get-breathing-room-in-wild-card-race Flames get a loser point, Dallas beat Arizona. And the Oilers are falling back into the wild card chase, although they still stand 2nd in the Pac. March 17 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-streaking-stars-in-hunt-for-home-ice-advantage-blues-get-last-minute-win Jets beat Florida 3-2 to solidify their 1 WC spot with the Flames and Wild both losing. Stars keep winning to hold on to 3rd in Cen. March 18 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-mcdavid-shreds-senators-as-oilers-pull-within-three-points-of-pacific-lead Canucks lose, Coyotes win. No change in the WC chase, Jets-wise. March 19 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-capitals-stretch-metro-lead-in-fiery-affair-game-of-the-night-debuts Flames and Preds win, Wild lose. Calgary now 3rd Pac., Jets 1 WC, Canucks 2 WC. Wild 1 point out of 8th, 3 behind Winnipeg. Preds 4 back of the Jets with a game in hand. St. Louis Blues become the first team to clinch a playoff spot. March 20 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-bishop-steals-one-for-stars-lightning-down-oilers-in-13-goal-thriller Surprise starter Laurent Brossoit earns a massive win as the Jets beat the Wild 5-2. Coyotes lose, Canucks and Stars win, and Oilers lose in OT. Anaheim Ducks are officially eliminated. March 21 - https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/simulating-the-season-lightning-gain-on-bruins-in-presidents-trophy-race-kings-frk-sets-nhl-record Preds win, Canucks lose, Flames get an OT loss point. No change in the wild card chase. So that's it up to today. Will post daily as THN runs their sims.