Kevin Kelley, the Little Rock, AR (Pulaski Academy) football coach whose team never punts, and always goes for the onside kick.
Kelley says his research has shown that by not punting or kicking off, his team has a 15 percent better chance of winning any given game.
Pulaski recovers onside kicks at a rate of 20 percent, and has a fourth-down conversion rate of 50 percent. On kickoffs, Kelley says his philosophy is worth it because he determined that by kicking deep, opposing teams were getting the ball on the average at the 33 yard-line. When the other team recovered onside kicks, the average starting spot was the 47 — a difference of only 14 yards. Kelley figured 14 yards was well worth it for the 20 percent return in successful onside kick recoveries.
An Example?
The Bruins visited the Cabot Panthers, one of the best teams in Arkansas and a school with roughly five times the student body of Pulaski
With Kelley calling plays, Pulaski scored on its first drive. Naturally, the Bruins then attempted an onside kick, which they recovered. Soon, they scored another touchdown. They repeated the drill -- onside kick, recovery, touchdown -- again. And then again. With 8:35 left in the 12-minute first quarter, Cabot trailed Pulaski 29-0 and had yet to run a play from scrimmage.
The Times recently cited a paper by David Romer (PDF), a professor of political economy at the University of California at Berkeley, that has become “the gospel for the antipunting faction.” Romer’s determination, after studying punt data from 1998 to 2004, was that teams should never punt when facing fourth down with less than four yards to go for the first, regardless of where they are on the field. Other analysis has suggested that teams should never punt from inside their opponent’s forty-yard line. As a corollary, they should always go for a touchdown, rather than a field goal, from inside the five-yard line.
Statisticians say teams shouldn't automatically punt. Fans say they want to see a more exciting game. Recruits would surely love to play for a school pitching endless high-pressure offensive and defensive situations.
Kevin Kelley, the Little Rock, AR (Pulaski Academy) football coach whose team never punts, and always goes for the onside kick.
Kelley says his research has shown that by not punting or kicking off, his team has a 15 percent better chance of winning any given game.
Pulaski recovers onside kicks at a rate of 20 percent, and has a fourth-down conversion rate of 50 percent. On kickoffs, Kelley says his philosophy is worth it because he determined that by kicking deep, opposing teams were getting the ball on the average at the 33 yard-line. When the other team recovered onside kicks, the average starting spot was the 47 — a difference of only 14 yards. Kelley figured 14 yards was well worth it for the 20 percent return in successful onside kick recoveries.
An Example?
The Bruins visited the Cabot Panthers, one of the best teams in Arkansas and a school with roughly five times the student body of Pulaski
With Kelley calling plays, Pulaski scored on its first drive. Naturally, the Bruins then attempted an onside kick, which they recovered. Soon, they scored another touchdown. They repeated the drill -- onside kick, recovery, touchdown -- again. And then again. With 8:35 left in the 12-minute first quarter, Cabot trailed Pulaski 29-0 and had yet to run a play from scrimmage.
The Times recently cited a paper by David Romer (PDF), a professor of political economy at the University of California at Berkeley, that has become “the gospel for the antipunting faction.” Romer’s determination, after studying punt data from 1998 to 2004, was that teams should never punt when facing fourth down with less than four yards to go for the first, regardless of where they are on the field. Other analysis has suggested that teams should never punt from inside their opponent’s forty-yard line. As a corollary, they should always go for a touchdown, rather than a field goal, from inside the five-yard line.
Statisticians say teams shouldn't automatically punt. Fans say they want to see a more exciting game. Recruits would surely love to play for a school pitching endless high-pressure offensive and defensive situations.
What do you think?