The Experts Have No Idea How Many COVID-19 Cases There Are
"In the early days of the COVID-19 panic—about three weeks ago—it was common to hear both of these phrases often repeated:
"The fatality rate of this virus is very high!"
"There are far more cases of this out there than we know about!"
The strategy of insisting that both these statements are true at the same time has been used by politicians to implement "lockdowns" that have forced business to close and millions to lose their jobs. For instance, on March 12, Ohio Department of Health director Amy Acton insisted that "over 100,000" people are "carrying this virus in Ohio today." The state began to implement "stay-at-home" lockdown orders that day.
At the time, the World Health Organization (WHO), the media, and others were reporting that 2 to 4 percent of people with COVID-19 would die. Taking the low-end 2 percent number, and allowing for an incubation period, this would mean that two weeks after Acton's announcement—assuming that the lockdown was 100 percent effective and not a single additional person caught the disease—two thousand Ohioans would likely be dead of COVID-19. But as of April 17, more than a month later, and after a month of the disease spreading through grocery stores and other "essential" areas of commerce, about 418 Ohioans have died of COVID-19.
Clearly, something doesn't add up."
"we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears….If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%.