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TrueBlue4ever

CFL Playoff Tracker

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Surprisingly, not too early to start analyzing the playoff race. All scenarios do NOT consider the possibility of ties at this point, just too complicated to factor in that possibility at this point.

WEST

Winnipeg - have clinched 4th place in the division, will clinch crossover playoff spot with wins and Ottawa losses totalling 2. Will clinch west playoff spot with wins and Edmonton losses totalling 3. Will clinch home playoff game with wins and either Calgary OR Saskatchewan losses totalling 6, will clinch west final home game with wins and Calgary AND Saskatchewan losses totalling 6.

Calgary -  Will clinch crossover playoff spot with wins and Ottawa losses totalling 4. Will clinch west playoff spot with wins and Edmonton losses totalling 5. Will clinch home playoff game with wins and Saskatchewan losses totalling 7 (if Saskatchewan does not beat them by 28 or more points in their remaining game), will clinch west final home game with wins and Winnipeg losses totalling 8 (if they beat Winnipeg by 3 points or more in their remaining game).

Saskatchewan - Will clinch crossover playoff spot with wins and Ottawa losses totalling 4. Will clinch west playoff spot with wins and Edmonton losses totalling 5 (if they win season series). Will clinch home playoff game with wins and Calgary losses totalling 7 (if Saskatchewan beats them by 28 or more points in their remaining game), will clinch west final home game with wins and Winnipeg losses totalling 8 (if they beat Winnipeg in their remaining game).

Edmonton - Will clinch crossover playoff spot with wins and Ottawa losses totalling 5. Will clinch west playoff spot with wins and Saskatchewan losses totalling 8 (if they win season series) OR wins and Calgary losses totalling 9. Will clinch home game with wins and Saskatchewan AND Calgary losses totalling 9, will clinch west final home game with wins and Winnipeg losses totalling 10.

BC - Can finish no better than 2nd in the West. Eliminated from home playoff game with 1 loss or a Saskatchewan win OR a combo of losses and Calgary wins totalling 2. Eliminated from playoffs with losses and Edmonton wins totalling 2, OR losses and Ottawa wins totalling 5.

 

EAST

Hamilton - Have clinched 3rd place in the division. Will clinch a home playoff game with wins and Ottawa losses totalling 2. Will clinch east final home game with wins and Montreal losses totalling 4.

Montreal - Will clinch a home playoff game with wins and Ottawa losses totalling 5. Will clinch east final home game with wins and Hamilton losses totalling 11 (if they beat Hamilton in their remaining game).

Ottawa - Eliminated from home east final game with losses and Hamilton wins totalling 2. Eliminated from home playoff game with losses and Montreal wins totalling 5. Eliminated from playoffs with losses and Edmonton wins totalling 5.

Toronto - Can finish no better than 2nd in the east. Eliminated from home playoff game with losses and Montreal wins totalling 4. Eliminated from playoffs with losses and Edmonton wins totalling 4.

 

CLINCHING SCENARIOS THIS WEEK:

Hamilton clinches a playoff spot with a win in Calgary and an Ottawa loss in BC.

 

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Pretty sure last year was the first time a 9 win team ever missed the playoffs so I would suggest that given how utterly trash BC and the east is this season 9 wins should pretty much have our playoff spot wrapped up. 

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Can't win the Grey Cup without making the playoffs so step 1 of the journey is just get into the playoffs however you can. I don't expect it'd take anything crazy to get a home playoff game anyway. Beat the gappers again at least and you probably get at least the semifinal in Winnipeg. Beat Calgary again as well and you are probably pretty locked in for first... unless of course they completely crap their pants. I would worry about having 2 bye weeks finishing first, but if that's the "problem" then so be it. 

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It's been a very long time since were ended the season first in the West (1972), so just reaching that mark is a very good thing.

Considering the way we've played this year, it should be our expectation to finish first in the west, win the playoff game and get to the Grey Cup. Anything less than that would be a major disappointment IMO.

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6 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

It's been a very long time since were ended the season first in the West (1972), so just reaching that mark is a very good thing.

Considering the way we've played this year, it should be our expectation to finish first in the west, win the playoff game and get to the Grey Cup. Anything less than that would be a major disappointment IMO.

Yup, only record I'm concerned about is O-5, the Bombers' Grey Cup record since their last win. Need to be 1-5 after this season. 

That wouldn't be much different than the Riders' 2-3 over the same time period.

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2 minutes ago, WinnipegGordo said:

Yup, only record I'm concerned about is O-5, the Bombers' Grey Cup record since their last win. Need to be 1-5 after this season. 

That wouldn't be much different than the Riders' 2-3 over the same time period.

The isnt about the riders..... **** the riders and their weird fans....

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2 hours ago, Noeller said:

Couldn't care less about "a playoff spot"....I want 1st, and I want a GC appearance. After that, there's only so much you can control in a 1-game Winner Take All...just get to the dance.

I think home field advantage against Calgary (or anyone else) is absolutely crucial for our chances this season.

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1 minute ago, blueingreenland said:

Yes our best shot at a Grey Cup appearance is to finish 1st.

Anyone know when the last time the Bombers finished 1st in the West and made it to the Grey Cup?? I don't know, but I think it's way back in the '60's!

That would be 1962 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Winnipeg_Blue_Bombers_seasons

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4 minutes ago, blueingreenland said:

I know we were in the East for a lot of years...but that's still crazy.

That is pretty precisely the reason for that stat. Jumping between divisions as much as the Bombers have done makes first in the west a pretty meaningless stat all things told. 

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1 hour ago, 17to85 said:

Can't win the Grey Cup without making the playoffs so step 1 of the journey is just get into the playoffs however you can. I don't expect it'd take anything crazy to get a home playoff game anyway. Beat the gappers again at least and you probably get at least the semifinal in Winnipeg. Beat Calgary again as well and you are probably pretty locked in for first... unless of course they complete. ly crap their pants. I would worry about having 2 bye weeks finishing first, but if that's the "problem" then so be it. 

Since the league contracted from the US expansion in 1996, there have been 10 seasons where a team has had a bye in the final week of the year (all other years we had an 8 team league) due to the unbalanced schedule. Of those 10 seasons, here are the results:

1996 - Edmonton bye, then won West semi at home over Winnipeg (went on to lose in the Grey Cup)

2002 - Hamilton bye, out of playoffs

2003 - Hamilton bye, out of playoffs

2004 - Edmonton bye, lost West semi at home to Saskatchewan

2005 - Winnipeg bye, out of playoffs

2014 - Winnipeg bye, out of playoffs

2015 - Edmonton bye, then another week off before winning West division final at home over Calgary (went on to win the Grey Cup) 

2016 - Calgary bye, then another week off before winning West division final at home over BC (went on to lose the Grey Cup in overtime) 

2017 - Ottawa bye, then lost the east semi final at home to Saskatchewan

2018 - Saskatchewan bye, then lost the West semi final at home to Winnipeg

 

So of the 6 teams that went into the playoffs after a final week bye, all had a home playoff game and their record was 3-3, including 2-0 for those with a "double bye" right into the division final.

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23 minutes ago, 17to85 said:

That is pretty precisely the reason for that stat. Jumping between divisions as much as the Bombers have done makes first in the west a pretty meaningless stat all things told. 

Bombers have been 24 seasons in the West division since their last 1st place finish in 1972. In a 5 team division, that drought is even more significant than a 29 year Grey Cup drought in a 9 team league.

And for those who question the importance of a first place division finish, since the Lions entered the CFL in 1954, in 65 seasons, the first place team in the West division has gone on to the Grey Cup 40 times (61.5%), the second place team 17 times (26.2%) and the third place team 8 times (12.3%). By pure coin flip the percentages should be 50-25-25 (removing any home field advantage consideration).

In the East it is even more pronounced. The #1 seed made the Grey Cup 49 times (75.4%), #2 15 times (23.1%) and #3 only once (1.5%). So finishing first in either division has resulted in a 68.4% chance of getting to the Grey Cup historically.

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The CFL needs to change it's playoff format for the crossover game. If a 4th place team from the West had more points than the third place team in the East (or vice versa) then why should the Western team be punished by having to play the game at the third place team's stadium. They don't deserve it. They should travel to the West & play the game there. Just another bullshit rule to benefit the teams in the East.

Edited by SpeedFlex27

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4 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

The CFL needs to change it's playoff format for the crossover game. If a 4th place team from the West had more points than the third place team in the East (or vice versa) then why should the Western team be punished by having to play the game at the third place team's stadium. They don't deserve it. They should travel to the West & play the game there. Just another bullshit rule to benefit the teams in the East.

Just make the whole league one division.  Would that help ?

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1 hour ago, NorthernSkunk said:

Just make the whole league one division.  Would that help ?

I understand the gripe here, but if the entire league were one division, season series would be much less important, and playoff positions would be all but set 2/3 through the season. If today, the league were one division it'd look like this:
HAM: 9-2
WPG: 9-3
CAL: 7-4
SSK: 7-4
MTL: 6-4
EDM: 6-6
************
OTT: 3-8
TOR: 2-9
BC: 1-10

Overall, it'd make the stretch run much less exciting, because there is a lot less for the teams to play for. By no means is the current system perfect, but consolidating things into one division wouldn't help, it'd make the imbalance between good and bad teams that much worse. Teams would be coasting into the playoffs easily with 3-4 games left, without much (if anything) to play for.

 



 

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2 hours ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

The CFL needs to change it's playoff format for the crossover game. If a 4th place team from the West had more points than the third place team in the East (or vice versa) then why should the Western team be punished by having to play the game at the third place team's stadium. They don't deserve it. They should travel to the West & play the game there. Just another bullshit rule to benefit the teams in the East.

They would play in the 2nd place team in the East division semi-final. In this scenario, the 3rd place team in the East wouldn't make the playoffs. The change you're describing doesn't make any sense... if playoffs happened right now, a cross-over would cause EDM (6-6) to play MTL (6-4), in MTL... this makes perfect sense, MTL has the better record.

I think what you mean is if the 4th place team in the West has a better record than the 2nd place team in the East...which in that case, I agree that doesn't make sense.

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