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USABomberfan

CFL 2019 Predictions, Surprises And Grey Cup Drought Ending Chances

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7 hours ago, Colin Unger said:

I hope nobody is suggesting that I don’t think that Chung is a good guard. What he lacks in physical ability makes up in fight and tenacity.  But he struggles against physically dominant defensive tackles like Mica Johnson. Chungs got a real mean streak out there. 

I think everyone struggled against Johnson. The man is a beast. I wouldn't hold that against Chungh.

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16 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

Any other team lose 3 all star NI's this off season? No? Then it's even better for us than other teams.

We had one of if not the best group of canadians in the CFL. It would benefit the teams with the worst just as much. Also I never implied it would/wouldn't be better for the bombers then anyone else...either did your original statement. I simply said it would be good for every team. Which is true.

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5 hours ago, TBURGESS said:

Any other team lose 3 all star NI's this off season? No? Then it's even better for us than other teams.

The real question is not how much talent was lost but how much talent remains.  Winnipeg may still have close to the best Canadian talent in the cfl. 

 

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10 hours ago, Colin Unger said:

The real question is not how much talent was lost but how much talent remains.  Winnipeg may still have close to the best Canadian talent in the cfl.

There's the crux of the matter. Do we really still have close to the best Canuck talent in the league?

Harris is the best NI RB in the league. Woli had a breakout season, netting him 22nd in the league in receiving. Demski's 2nd tier or lower (28th in receiving). The rest are average to below average NI's.

 

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It’s difficult to state we  have near the best overall NI talent in the league.

BUT

It is equally as difficult to state that the bulk of our NI lineup is average or below average..

Edited by Mr Dee

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13 minutes ago, Mr Dee said:

It’s difficult to state we  have near the best overall NI talent in the league.

BUT

It is equally as difficult to state that the bulk of our NI lineup is average or below average..

Is it tho?

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36 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

There's the crux of the matter. Do we really still have close to the best Canuck talent in the league?

Harris is the best NI RB in the league. Woli had a breakout season, netting him 22nd in the league in receiving. Demski's 2nd tier or lower (28th in receiving). The rest are average to below average NI's.

 

I would think that that would be pretty normal for a cfl. Team.  Where is Calgary at after the loss Singleton and Durant.  I would imagine they are less than Winnipeg.  Another top team in the league is Hamilton and they're pretty similar to Winnipeg id say. One of the few teams that are blessed with two ratio breaker's in Ted Laurent and Jamaal Westerman.  And future bright with all those picks they got for "John" Manziel After that, they've got nothing special overly special. Edmonton is nothing special. Didn't even have a good offensive line despite starting 3 Americans last year.   Montreal has some good front end talent in Muamba and Loffler. But we all know Loffler isn't going to be a long career type guy and their cupboards are empty for the next few years thanks to poor management.

 

The point im making here is that Winnipeg isn't noticeably worse than the rest of the league in terms of proven commodities and they have a bright future.   Who knows what we will think of Gray, the 2 first round picks, Couture, Jones, Petermann, and Simonise by the end of the season.  They all have high upside. Im not worried about Winnipeg's Canadians versus the rest of the league right now.. Should I be?  Winnipeg is well positioned IMO if the league drops down to 5. Mainly because we didn't way over pay for a Canadian. If the league drops to 5 the only Canadians who will really be worth money is a player who would be playing even if they weren't a Canadian.  So guys like Harris, Laurent, Westerman, and potentially Loffler. Suhk Chung's contract is a joke in a league with 5 Canadian starters.  You can replace him with an american for 80k. 

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'Isn't noticeably worse than the rest of the league' isn't the same as 'close to the best'.

If you were talking last year, then I'd agree that our Canuck talent was one of, if not the best in the league. Take 3 all stars away and I don't think it's still true.

The 'who knows what we will think of' group are just that. They may or may not be great this year or down the road. What we do know is 2 of them will likely be starters this year, because we don't have any other real choices.

If the league goes down to 5 NI starters, then we're in a much better spot. Our top 5 may even be 'close to the best'. 1 star. 2 second tier. 2 average to below average.

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It seems like you're trying to suggest that any young Canadian should be viewed the same. Yeah any player who hasn't proven themselves as a starter could be great or not great down the road. This statement isn't factually incorrect. But when you have a track record of drafting and developing elite level Canadian talent and we are looking at another very good crop of Canadian players there's no reason to worry.  Track records matter. How highly regarded they were heading into the draft matters. By your logic, the Calgary Stampeders should be expected to be near the bottom of the league this season. They certainly lost more talent than Winnipeg included a Canadian that is near Bighill level and didn't add as much Winnipeg. However, based on their track record of developing replacements I'd still have them at the top right now until proven otherwise.  How many of these Canadian All-stars were on the team when Walters took over the reins?  Based on track records..  I maintain.. Not worried about the Canadian talent we will be better than most teams. Also based on track record I'm concerned about the American talent in our receiving core. 

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On 2019-04-12 at 10:50 AM, TBURGESS said:

Classic fan forum stuff, whether it's here or on the Riders forum. 

When a player is on our team he's great, an all star, likely best in the league. When he leaves, we won't miss a beat, he wasn't that good anyway, his backup will be just as good, likely better, heck, his backup woulda coulda shoulda taken his job last year (The GM said as much after we knew he wasn't coming back), his new team overpaid to get him and they'll be sorry. Anyone who disagrees is just a negative troll who must be argued with. SMITE HIM... SMITE HIM.

I actually do believe you're onto something with this because it definitely is possible when a departure happens to underestimate the value of said player.  This is why in my earlier posts I've been a bit down on the Esks because I'm not sure Duke Williams and co are quite as replaceable as they might be getting made out to be.

 

Within our defense I got kind of mixed feelings about who we're replacing.  I do believe Randle, Fogg and Leggett have important value that may be a bit tougher to replace.  Loffler was both praised and criticized.  Praised for when he came in and lowered the boom, but tacked on when he was trying to defend deep balls.  If we get a S who's got some verticals on him we should have that area covered.

The other part is coaching.  If we don't have nearly the talent level we had on D last year, I do believe the coaches will need to adjust the scheme to do more with less.  Course now I could go down that rabbit trail but I won't.  But still, there are reasons the expectations are even higher this season.

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18 hours ago, Colin Unger said:

It seems like you're trying to suggest that any young Canadian should be viewed the same. Yeah any player who hasn't proven themselves as a starter could be great or not great down the road. This statement isn't factually incorrect. But when you have a track record of drafting and developing elite level Canadian talent and we are looking at another very good crop of Canadian players there's no reason to worry.  Track records matter. How highly regarded they were heading into the draft matters. By your logic, the Calgary Stampeders should be expected to be near the bottom of the league this season. They certainly lost more talent than Winnipeg included a Canadian that is near Bighill level and didn't add as much Winnipeg. However, based on their track record of developing replacements I'd still have them at the top right now until proven otherwise.  How many of these Canadian All-stars were on the team when Walters took over the reins?  Based on track records..  I maintain.. Not worried about the Canadian talent we will be better than most teams. Also based on track record I'm concerned about the American talent in our receiving core. 

No I'm suggesting that last year's backups, who are now starters, shouldn't be considered as good as last years all stars who they are replacing until/unless they prove it.

You're confusing where we are right now, with were we might be at the end of the season. Two very different things.

I'm not worried. I'm not saying we won't be competitive. I'm not suggesting that the Stamps or us will be near the bottom of the league. In the beginning, I said that both teams lost a lot of talent in the off season and that I have them a 1 & 2 overall. FTR: We lost more NI talent (Which is what we're actually talking about) than the Stamps did. 3 all stars to 1.

You have to assume that our new starters are as good as other teams last years starters to assume that we will be better than most teams in NI talent. I'm not going there with you.

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I wouldn’t consider a guy like Gray as being last years backup.  He was the most highly touted offensive lineman his draft year and then signed in the nfl.  I was just as excited to have him when I thought Chung and Goosen were coming back as I am now.  He will just start sooner than if we got everyone back.  But eventually I expected him to be an upgrade over anyone we had as a Canadian on the offensive line. 

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IHere’s our Canadian Content - 26 players out of 79 currently on the roster.

Decide for yourselves...

Above average: 

1)Jesse Briggs LB - Briggs finished third on the club i special-teams tackles with 13 and chipped in with three tackles on defence. Signed a two-year contract extension with the Bombers on December 17, 2018.

2)Michael Couture OL - Has played in all 36 games and both playoff contests in his first two seasons with the club after being drafted in the second round (10th overall) in 2016… Can play guard, tackle and centre and has been a part of the team’s short-yardage package.

3)Nic Demski WR - GP 57    Rec. 128    Yds 1279 Yac 464 6 TDs 10.0 avg. 4 year veteran

4)Andrew Harris RB - enough said

5)Derek Jones DB- 5 year Bomber veteran. Punt blocker specialist. Special team’s ace.

6)Mike Miller FB - 8 year veteran. 2 years with the Bombers. Special team ace. One of the best in the league.

7)Patrick Neufeld OL - coming off his best year of 8 years in the league.

8)Chad Rempel LS - one of, if not the best at what he does. Steady since 2005

Average or better:

9)Shayne Gauthier LB- 20th overall pick 2016 draft

19)Geoff Gray OL - 8th overall 2017 draft. Spent 2017-18 on NFL rosters. 

11)Jeff Hecht DB - 8 year veteran 

12)Thomas Miles LB - ST ace 

13)Daniel Petermann WR - drafted 26th overall. Big upside.

14)John Rush FB - versatile special teams player

15)Rashaun Simonise WR - Bombers 1st choice in 2018

16)Jake Thomas DL - 7 year Bomber

17)Drew Wolatarsky WR - 2nd year Bomber...headed for big things with the Blue.

Not enough data

18)Johnny Augustine RB- un-drafted 

19)Abubakarr Conteh DB - drafted 17th overall. ST. Appeared in 12 games 2018

20)Jacob Firlotte DB - drafted 58th overall 2018

21)Maxx Forde DL - Former BC Lion

22)Dexter Janke DB - 3 year veteran with Calgary

23)Ben Koczwara OL - 67th overall 2018...went back to school

24)DJ Lalama LB - 70th overall Edmonton 

25)Matthew Ouellet De Carlo OL - drafted 49th 2018. Returned to school after training camp.

26)Cody Speller OL - started 2 games in 2018

Edited by Mr Dee

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Typical fan forum 'analysis'. None of our NI's are below average. 😄 BTW: Above average and average or better both kinda mean the same thing.

I agree that Harris should be in his own category... ratio breaker.

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55 minutes ago, TBURGESS said:

Typical fan forum 'analysis'. None of our NI's are below average.

And a typical response.

Firstly, you should name the below average players you seem to think we have.

AND

Try to relate why the players are slotted where they are in the list mentioned. 

Average includes those who are slightly below and slightly above ‘average’. They could go either way. Hence “or better” .

Surely, you can see the difference between the lists and why some are not included in the top list. Someone like Gray. Starts at least as average, but could easily be better.

So....let’s see your list

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I would personally put Wolitarsky in the above average category.  I believe he had the 4th most yards of any Canadian receiver despite playing on a low passing volume team and field side wideout. With the move to slot I see him as a 1000 yard guy this year. Probably a better receiver than any current American we have aside from Darvin. 

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The list needs to be tier'd.

Tier 1 - All stars and Ratio Breakers. Harris. We had 3 more last year.

Tier 2 - Solid contributors, guys you wouldn't want to lose. Woli, Neuf (for last 2 years play), Demski, (Although some folks think he's disposable), Miller, Remple?

Tier 3 - Backups and young guys with an upside. Coutour, Gray, Peterman, Speller?, Simonise?, Augustine?

Tier 4 - Starters/Special teamers until someone better comes along. Jones, Briggs, Thomas

Tier 5 - JAG's (Just another guy)

Tier 6 - Actively trying to replace.

 

 

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