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Mr Dee

Alliance of American Football

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Don't laugh at the AAF about that. When the Grey Cup was in Toronto 2 years ago, there was a pizza chain in Hamilton giving away Grey Cup tickets with every pizza order. Having the Grey Cup in Toronto with their (lack of)  fanbase made the CFL a laughing stock. That city should never get a Grey Cup again after that.

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31 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

Don't laugh at the AAF about that. When the Grey Cup was in Toronto 2 years ago, there was a pizza chain in Hamilton giving away Grey Cup tickets with every pizza order. Having the Grey Cup in Toronto with their (lack of)  fanbase made the CFL a laughing stock. That city should never get a Grey Cup again after that.

That pizza promotion had zero to do with the league.  The CFL forced them to shut it down as they weren't given permission for it.

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Here is a tracker for all the weeks played.

Week 1 of AAF : 76,838 in paid attendance (19,210/game)

  • Atl @ Orl 20,191
  • SD @ SA 27,857
  • Mem @ BHam 17,039
  • SLC @ AZ 11,751

Week 2 of AAF : 78,494 in paid attendance (19,624/game).

  • SLC @ BHAM 17,319
  • AZ @ MEM 11,980
  • ORL @ SA 29,176
  • ATL @ SD 20,019

Week 3 of AAF : 56,312 in paid attendance (14,078/game)

  • MEM @ ORL 20,394 
  • AZ @ SLC 10,412  
  • BHAM @ ATL  10,717
  • SA @ SD 14,789

Week 4 of AAF : 38,327 in paid attendance (9,582/game)

  • SD @ MEM 13,621
  • ORL @ SLC 9,302
  • SA @ BHAM 6,539
  • ATL @ AZ 8,865
 

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23 hours ago, bigg jay said:

That pizza promotion had zero to do with the league.  The CFL forced them to shut it down as they weren't given permission for it.

Yeah, I guess that was a difference as the Hotshots are doing a promotion. Still, when Pizza Pizza was associated with the Grey Cup game it was a major black eye.

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2 hours ago, Mr Dee said:

Here is a tracker for all the weeks played.

Week 4 of AAF : 38,327 in paid attendance (9,582/game)

  • SD @ MEM 13,621
  • ORL @ SLC 9,302
  • SA @ BHAM 6,539
  • ATL @ AZ 8,865
 

It might not be as bad as it looks. There are a few teams driving overall attendance. None of them had a home game in week 4. If you make a very basic model of home attendance based on the first 4 weeks and apply it the overall schedule it would predict the following for the season. It doesn't look good, however the very basic assumption i made on home cities driving attendance expected week 3 and 4 to be the worst attendance, then go back up through the season and drop again in week 10. I'm curious to see what the actual results will be.  But if week 5 has poorer results than week 4, then I'd be worried.

Week 1 - highest attendance week 

Week 2 - down 0.5% (actual up 2%)

Week 3 - down 19% from week 2 (actual down 28%)

Week 4 - down 20% from week 3 (actual down 32%)

Week 5 - up 11% from week 4

Week 6 - up 11% from week 5

Week 7 - up 7% from week 6

Week 8 - up 4% from week 7

Week 9 - up 7% from week 8

Week 10 - down 14% from week 9

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11 hours ago, brett_c_b said:

It might not be as bad as it looks. There are a few teams driving overall attendance. None of them had a home game in week 4. If you make a very basic model of home attendance based on the first 4 weeks and apply it the overall schedule it would predict the following for the season. It doesn't look good, however the very basic assumption i made on home cities driving attendance expected week 3 and 4 to be the worst attendance, then go back up through the season and drop again in week 10. I'm curious to see what the actual results will be.  But if week 5 has poorer results than week 4, then I'd be worried.

Week 1 - highest attendance week 

Week 2 - down 0.5% (actual up 2%)

Week 3 - down 19% from week 2 (actual down 28%)

Week 4 - down 20% from week 3 (actual down 32%)

Week 5 - up 11% from week 4

Week 6 - up 11% from week 5

Week 7 - up 7% from week 6

Week 8 - up 4% from week 7

Week 9 - up 7% from week 8

Week 10 - down 14% from week 9

It is as bad as it looks because optics and bandwagoning is EVERYTHING to this league right now to this league. 38000 fans for 4 games is terrible attendance no matter what the reason is. Teams papering the crowd with a pair of tickets with a 5 dollar happy meal will not create positive buzz for this league. At the end of the day for this league to be successful EVERY team is going to need to average high teens or low twenties attendance because EVERY team has a 9 million dollar player payroll and huge overhead. There is not a single break even franchise in this league at this point, and most are bleeding cash.

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43 minutes ago, sweep the leg said:

Birmingham had 17k fans for their first game and 6,500 last weekend. That's not a good sign.

Even the CFL Birmingham team had better attendance than that and it was regarded as one of the biggest failures of CFL expansion.

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1 hour ago, sweep the leg said:

Birmingham had 17k fans for their first game and 6,500 last weekend. That's not a good sign.

They also did have a tornado outbreak roll through Alabama last weekend. Think this league goes on fir a while yet. In the off-season they will move a couple teams to better markets. Ultimately I think the NFL buys it and uses it as a feeder league then really attendance is not a concern.

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On 2019-03-02 at 1:40 PM, JuranBoldenRules said:

Competition in the form of another person having a bonfire fueled by cash.

I think the XFL might make it this time.  Last time, Vince was coming off his big victory over WCW and had a hugely profitable company.  He was at the height of his **** waving, swagger.  He poked the NFL bear and made the XFL a WWE-version of football.  It wasnt as bad as the mainstream press made it.

Keep in mind that Vince learned as the season went on and was determined to do a second season but NBC pulled out and they had little support for national TV.

This time, it will be all about TV and it sounds like the XFL has good national TV partners.  If the TV deals pay the way and they can show growth, it can work.  

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2 hours ago, sweep the leg said:

Birmingham had 17k fans for their first game and 6,500 last weekend. That's not a good sign.

They never do shots of the stands on tv. Just the field & the first few rows above it. 

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52 minutes ago, SpeedFlex27 said:

They never do shots of the stands on tv. Just the field & the first few rows above it. 

Like in Montreal, Toronto, and BC. 

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I don't see any of those leagues lasting.    The interest in football in the States has dropped since XFL 1.0 and the average age of a football fan is getting older and older.   I'd assume older folks would have zero interest in the XFL or AAFL. 

I'd be amazed if any of these leagues make it to a 3rd season. 

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The NFL & the NCAA are everything. Now that most, if not all, American tv networks  aren't showing the American national anthem, it has muted the player protests & taken the political protests away from Donald Trump. So, I expect fan popularity to grow again.

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This thing that football is dying sport is completely nuts. The NFL is making more money than they have at anytime. TV contracts are growing. Each time a TV contract comes up the networks are falling over them selves to win them. Yes attendance is down but that’s more a society thing where people would rather watch it on TV. 

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9 hours ago, The Unknown Poster said:

I think the XFL might make it this time.  Last time, Vince was coming off his big victory over WCW and had a hugely profitable company.  He was at the height of his **** waving, swagger.  He poked the NFL bear and made the XFL a WWE-version of football.  It wasnt as bad as the mainstream press made it.

Keep in mind that Vince learned as the season went on and was determined to do a second season but NBC pulled out and they had little support for national TV.

This time, it will be all about TV and it sounds like the XFL has good national TV partners.  If the TV deals pay the way and they can show growth, it can work.  

The TV contracts provide working capital.  That might help avoid payroll issues etc, but probably won't even pay for the stadium and insurance costs plus payroll.

Nobody watches TV anymore so for longevity I don't see it mattering all that much if they can't attract probably well into the 20,000's of spectators to pay the big bills.  A lot of games played by the big established pro sports leagues in NA barely register for TV ratings.

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1 hour ago, Jpan85 said:

This thing that football is dying sport is completely nuts. The NFL is making more money than they have at anytime. TV contracts are growing. Each time a TV contract comes up the networks are falling over them selves to win them. Yes attendance is down but that’s more a society thing where people would rather watch it on TV. 

Who said it was a dying sport?   It's not as popular as it used to be and the average fan age is increasing.    It's far from being a money loser or anything,  the main point is that the sport of football isn't as hot as it used to be. 

I don't think the sport is popular enough for people caring about non NFL or NCAA football.

It may grow as a niche but really why wouldn't Arena football succeed after all those years and investors,  what makes XFL or AAFL think they can succeed when they have zero differentials from NFL/NCAA.  It's just a vastly inferior product.   At least CFL is a different experience when you watch.

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On 2019-02-26 at 10:21 AM, gcn11 said:

If you are selling assets are you making money? He is financing the XFL by selling assets. Assets are finite, and he will only sell so much of his WWE stock where the bulk of his wealth is tied up.

This logic is the equivalent to heating your house by setting your furnace on fire... it's effectively equity cannibalism.

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14 hours ago, Eternal optimist said:

This logic is the equivalent to heating your house by setting your furnace on fire... it's effectively equity cannibalism.

Exactly my point. There is a vast difference between having cash to spare and selling assets to generate cash.

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I can imagine the Carl's drive thru today...

Car pulls up to order box:

Drive thru guy " Hi Welcome to Carl's may I take your order?"

Customer " I'll have the $5 fatboi special"

DTG " Ok sir...that also comes with two free tickets to the next AAF game"

Customer " Can I get a free gravy for my fries instead of the tickets?"

DTG "I'm sorry sir, that substitution is not allowed."

Customer "Ok then....I was just trying to get something of actual value instead."

DTG " I understand sir and don't blame you for trying"

Customer " keep the tickets....it's your tip"

DTG (grumbles under his breath) " Some tip I can't even give these things away."

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On 2019-03-06 at 7:21 PM, JuranBoldenRules said:

The TV contracts provide working capital.  That might help avoid payroll issues etc, but probably won't even pay for the stadium and insurance costs plus payroll.

Nobody watches TV anymore so for longevity I don't see it mattering all that much if they can't attract probably well into the 20,000's of spectators to pay the big bills.  A lot of games played by the big established pro sports leagues in NA barely register for TV ratings.

Its not really about how many eyeballs are watching, its about what networks value the eyeballs that are.  We'll see...if the XFL cannot get a good TV deal, then so be it.  But live sports is very valuable right now.  All those networks that lose out on getting the NFL might take a look at a secondary league for a lot less money.

Vince knows this because while his wrestling attendance and ratings have dropped a lot, the money he gets for TV has increased a lot and that makes WWE super profitable.

Speaking of which, WWE sold the XFL IP to Vince for $1 million.  Now, if I was a shareholder I might wonder why they only got $1 million when supposedly the AAF was offering $50 million.  Fortunately for Vince, most people dont care about WWE.   WWE also charged a few million to XFL for services rendered (leading to the theory that the XFL and WWE arent as separate as Vince claims).  The next WM being announced for Tampa is some sort of connection to the XFL as well.

Seems clear Vince will use the massive WWE machine to push the XFL but Im not sure how much of a positive that will be.

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